- APC, PDP neck and neck
- National economic troubles boost PDP chances
• Incumbency power favours APC
By Ishaya Ibrahim (Lagos)
Titus Oise (Benin City) and
Oye Chukwujekwu (Asaba)
Incumbency and its trimmings may fail to tilt the Edo State governorship vote in the column of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with national economic hardship putting it in play for the opposition, despite the two weeks’ postponement.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Thursday, September 8 shifted the ballot from Saturday, September 10 to Wednesday, September 28 for security reasons.
It had earlier ignored advice from the police and the Directorate of State Security Service (DSS) to postpone the election because of intelligence warning of mayhem by Boko Haram terrorists.
The postponement, announced 48 hours to the original date, destabilised voters who had travelled to different locations to vote.
It also demoralised foreign and domestic election observers, many of whom had arrived the state when the announcement was made.
And it sent the signal that ‘terrorists’ had prevailed.
PDP rejects reason for postponement
Edo Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Chairman, Dan Orbih, said the motive for the postponement was in bad faith.
“[President Muhammadu Buhari] was in the state, and 24 hours later you are talking of security concern? He had a successful visit. Nobody raised dust.
“There was no knockout shot. But 24 hours after, you talk of security threat!” Orbih wondered.
“If the DIG operations (deputy inspector general of police) was on the ground and assured the citizens that they have 25,000 men to protect them during the election, and you now say there is a security threat to warrant the postponement of the election, people are now asking the question: is Nigeria safe under the present government?”
Orbih pointed out that elections in the Buhari administration have progressed from inconclusive to postponement.
“We’ve had cases of inconclusive elections. Now its postponement. Next, they will say no election at all.
“So, it’s a threat to democracy. From inconclusive to postponement, and may be to cancellation. We need to save democracy.”
He wondered how the security agencies were suddenly reacting as if the election took them unawares. “Immediately after the swearing-in of the governor for a second term, under the law it was clear that there would be election. So we did not need to wait 24 hours to the election for you to start telling us of a threat,” he said.
Orbih alleged that Governor Adams Oshiomhole had been courting the postponement.
“And don’t forget that a few days ago, the governor was outside the office waiting for so-called students to demonstrate to say they have exams.
“A governor who in the past refused to come out to address pensioners, civil servants, unpaid local government workers.
“He had never agreed to come out of his office to address those groups of people who have rendered selfless service to the state.
“But once they told him that students and paid people were coming to demonstrate for the exams to be postponed, he did not even wait for them to arrive Government House. He came out to wait for them.
“You can see that it is clear that this whole thing is being masterminded by Adams Oshiomhole who is now facing the harsh reality of his imminent defeat.”
Missteps play for PDP
Missteps by Oshiomhole also add to the chances of a PDP determined to return to Government House from where it was displaced in 2008.
The administration of Oshiomhole has paid civil servants up to date. But it owes pensioners four years’ pension.
Council employees are owed 20 months’ salary. Oshiomhole claims that councils are autonomous, meaning they are responsible for salary payment.
However, council accounts are said to be held by the state government which disburses their allocation based on its discretion.
During the APC governorship, Oshiomhole was accused of imposing Godwin Obaseki, to the chagrin of other contestants who wanted a level playing field.
Down to the wire
For now, the ballot is about 50/50 between the APC and the PDP, according to a survey of voters conducted by TheNiche. But the postponement could alter the equation.
A loss by the APC may also signal Edo voters’ loss of faith in the policies of the federal government, controlled by the APC, rather than for Oshiomhole or his anointed candidate, Obaseki.
Obaseki and Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the PDP are the two main candidates in the pack of 10.
Obaseki is the chairman of the Economic Team of Oshiomhole’s government. Ize-Iyamu is former secretary to the Edo State government under Lucky Igbinedion.
Ize-Iyamu, politician to the core
Ize-Iyamu was instrumental to the emergence of Oshiomhole as governor. When Oshiomhole ran for re-election in 2012, he chose him as his campaign director general. Oshiomhole won all the 18 councils.
They later fell out. Ize-Iyamu rejoined the PDP. Ever since, the state has not remained the same because he and Oshiomhole know themselves well.
Ize-Iyamu was a kingmaker in the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which later merged with other parties to form the APC.
But trouble started when he began to nurse governorship ambition, and he left the party when he sensed that Oshiomhole would not support him.
Obaseki, a technocrat
Obaseki is a technocrat and well grounded in business. He is not a politician like Ize-Iyamu. He is riding on the goodwill of Oshiomhole who has upgraded infrastructure in the state.
Besides, Oshiomhole sees the election as a personal challenge because he knows there will be trouble if Ize-Iyamu wins. This he resists.
Their chances
“The way things stand today, it’s 50/50 between the two gladiators (Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu) and everyone knows that in Edo,” one respondent to the survey said.
Obaseki counts on the goodwill of Oshiomhole and the power of incumbency to win.
The state PDP has times without number urged Buhari to ensure a level playing field for all candidates, because if federal muscle is introduced into the mix, Obaseki may carry the day.
Buhari urged the electorate to vote Obaseki during his visit last week.
But Ize-Iyamu, being one of the founders of the APC, knows the workings of the party and most of his foot soldiers there are quietly advancing his cause.
To buttress this point, Government House payment vouchers get to the PDP which brandishes them to the public to allege that Oshiomhole’s administration is corrupt.
Orbih told TheNiche in an interview published on May 8 that “Oshiomhole has borrowed more than any other previous government. He has misused the resources of the state to a level that cannot be imagined.
“He spends between N500 million and N700 million of the security vote in a month, in a state where there is no Boko Haram.”
This sort of allegation has enhanced the campaign of Ize-Iyamu.
More potent is the economic recession which has exacerbated unemployment and inflation in the country.
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed on Wednesday, August 31 that more than 4.5 million people have lost their jobs from May 29, 2015 to date and inflation stands at over 17 per cent, the highest in the country’s history.
Nigerians complain of hardship and hunger, and the PDP promises them respite by saying, “change the change”.
Former Delta State governorship aspirant, Sunny Onuesoke, predicted that the PDP would win the election in Edo based on the non performance of Oshiomhole.
In his view, “the APC’s eight years of governance has nothing to show in Edo State. There is nothing to write home about in terms of development in almost every sector of the economy in Edo State.
“Most roads in the heart of Benin City, like other major towns in the state, are in their worst state.”
Edo State Deputy Governor, Pius Odubu, insisted at a campaign rally in Orhionmwon that Obaseki is the man to beat.
“Obaseki, who is coming to take over from … Oshiomhole, has said he will provide stable electricity. He was able to do roads, he will fix the light ….
“You should not allow the PDP to tell you what they are not capable of doing. We in the APC are in this town and we will develop the area to the fullest.”
But Obaseki’s candidacy is also an issue. He is seen as a stooge to Oshiomhole.
Critics frown at the situation where Oshiomhole takes all the time to speak at campaigns and gives little time for Obaseki to sell himself to the public.
The thinking is that a win for Obaseki is Oshiomhole’s third term.
Ize-Iyamu has his own baggage, too. He is criticised heavily for his prominent role during the eight-year administration of Igbinedion, which achieved little or nothing.
This is a big albatross for Ize-Iyamu and may be the reason why Igbinedion has not publicly identified with his campaign, even though he pulls the strings behind the scenes.