Voters in Online poll by Arewa Trust rank Obi top, as in all other surveys
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
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“The majority of electoral polls conducted so far by authentic pollsters are posting results, which are at variance with pundits’ traditional statistics of a two-man race.
“This means that … Atiku Abubakar of PDP may after all not be our main challenger, but Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
“This is a wake-up call, which we cannot dismiss with a wave of the hand,” Osita Okechukwu, APC founding member
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A poll conducted online between 3 October and 11 October by Arewa Trust, an online newspaper based in Kano, has 95 per cent of the respondents affirming they would vote for Peter Obi in the presidential ballot in 2023.
That makes a total four opinion polls conducted so far by various organisations in and outside Nigeria, all of which attest the majority of “registered and decided” voters prefer Obi.
Readers were asked, “Who will you be voting for as President in 2023?” and given the option to choose from among four contenders – Obi (Labour Party, LP), Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress, APC), Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), and Rabiu Kwankaso (New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP).
The result breaks down as follows:
Raw numbers
- Total page views – 19,514
- Those who voted – 5,352
Result per candidate
- Peter Obi – 5,089 (95.09%)
- Bola Tinubu – 137 (2.56%)
- Atiku Abubakar – 97 (1.81%)
- Rabiu Kwankwaso – 29 (0.54%)
A previous app-based poll conducted by Bloomberg News in late September came up with 72 per cent of 3,973 “registered and decided voters” who said they would vote Obi. Tinubu got 16 per cent and Atiku 9 per cent.
Also in late September, a poll conducted by We2Geda gave Obi 51 per cent, Atiku 25 per cent, and Tinubu 19 per cent.
In August, Obi led in a survey conducted by NOI Polls with 21 per cent. Tinubu and Atiku received 13 per cent each, Kwankwaso 3 per cent.
Aggregate of polls
Aggregate scores by the three leading candidates in the four polls are as follows:
- Peter Obi – 59.75 per cent
- Bola Tinubu – 12.64 per cent
- Atiku Abubabar – 12.20 per cent
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Poll format, sample size
Two of the polls, Bloomberg and Arewa Trust, were conducted online.
Bloomberg used an app to surveyed 3,973 “registered and decided voters”. On Arewa Trust website, a total 19,514 viewed the poll page and 5,352 voted.
We2Geda randomly surveyed 15,438 registered voters in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Its survey was done entirely through fully randomised direct phone calls in local languages, to achieve real representation of registered voters across Nigeria.
Survey result vs election result
All the four opinion polls conducted so far show the majority of respondents saying they would elect Obi the next President. Provided the election is not rigged as was always the case in past elections.
Election rigging distorts reality.
If most of the electorate disclose in a survey they will vote for a particular candidate, and they actually do so on Election Day, but the result is rigged, then the opinion poll is not wrong and cannot be faulted.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has pledged that electronic transmission of result from polling units, which has reduced the chances of vote rigging since at least 2020, will be used in the 2023 ballot.
Okechukwu warns APC about Obi surge
APC founding member Osita Okechukwu, the Director General of Voice of Nigeria (VON), has alerted his party to the reality of the candidacy of Obi.
“The majority of electoral polls conducted so far by authentic pollsters are posting results, which are at variance with pundits’ traditional statistics of a two-man race.
“This means that … Atiku Abubakar of PDP may after all not be our main challenger, but Peter Obi of the Labour Party.
“This is a wake-up call, which we cannot dismiss with a wave of the hand,” Okechukwu told The Guardian.