A huge 70 million Nigerians are registered to vote for president on February 14, about a third of the total population, yet no one can confidently predict the outcome. The result is too close to call.
Millions of voters have made up their minds, partly because of historical factors and partly because of the pitches of the protagonists, namely President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
To win Aso Rock, a candidate has to score at least 25 per cent of the vote in at least two-thirds (24) of the 36 states and carry the majority vote.
Likely voter influences vary North and South of River Niger, but some common trends can be discerned across zones: for this analysis, the three zones in the North are collapsed into one because voting in much of the region appears predictable.
But the three zones on the lower side of the River – South West, South East, and South South – stand apart for their unpredictable likely voting pattern.
North
Buhari is the favourite in the North, especially in the seven North West states. He is also favoured to win in Bauchi, Yobe, Gombe and Borno, and hopes to clinch Niger in the North Central.
The recurring Boko Haram insurgency may also reduce Jonathan’s votes in the region.
Based on popularity, Buhari seems to have the numbers in the North, given his track record in past presidential ballots, even in obscure parties.
In the 2011, he garnered a total 12,214,853 votes, 11,895,853 of them from the North, which is populated mainly by Muslims. He got only 319,000 votes from the 17 Southern states where most residents are Christians.
The North has a history of voting along religious lines, due to the frequency of religious skirmishes in the region, which make Christian voters suspicious of Muslim politicians and Muslim voters also suspicious of Christian politicians.
Buhari’s victory in the North may be limited to areas where Muslims have the numbers, although his support has lately expanded into the Christian Northern states of Taraba, Benue, and Plateau.
South West
In Lagos, voters may vote for individual candidates instead of parties. Therefore, the popularity of PDP governorship candidate, Jimi Agbaje, may rub off on Jonathan.
“You cannot compare Agbaje with Akinwunmi Ambode (APC governorship candidate). Agbaje is more popular and known in Lagos. People are enthusiastic about him because of his personality, not because of the party”, some PDP supporters said.
In Ogun, the APC may snatch a slim victory because of Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s achievements. The internal crisis in the state PDP may also swing victory in favour of Buhari.
Osun is also likely going to go the way of the APC because of Governor Rauf Aregbesola as well as the influence of former Governors Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola.
Ekiti and Ondo are too close to call. Both could be the deal breakers in the battle of wits between Jonathan and Buhari.
Ethnicity and religion may not significantly influence the result in the South West region but the fact that Buhari’s running mate, Yemi Osinbajo, is from the region could work well for the ticket.
Although there seems to be a slight division among South West elders on who to support, the power lies with youths who are the main voters in the zone.
Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere, endorsed Jonathan but this drew flak from other Yoruba groups.
Afenifere Spokesman, Yinka Odumakin, said: “Afenifere supports (Jonathan’s) reelection because he had the courage to convoke the national conference and we hope that he will implement the report.
“(He) expressed the commitment that he will adopt the report within 12 months of returning to office.”
But an elder in the South West, former Chief of Army Staff, General Alani Akinrinade, came down hard on Afenifere, describing it as disgrace to the Yoruba race.
“If these old men who were shouting marginalisation a few months ago can sit today to endorse the same man who is marginalising them, then their brains need medical examination,” he riposted.
He insisted that the emergence of Osinbajo (an in-law to the Obafemi Awolowo family) as APC vice presidential candidate is enough to unite the Yoruba to work for a common interest.
“How can these people be speaking for the Yoruba when they abandoned their own son to celebrate a man [Jonathan] who sees them as nothing for complete four years? He continues to deceive them with implementation of the recommendations of the national conference, as if that is where our future lies,” Akinrinade wondered.
Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG) also condemned the Afenifere’s endorsement, likewise the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE).
“The YCE is not a party to any purported endorsement given by any group or groups to a presidential candidate and so dissociates itself from such action as the YCE did not at any time sit with any group of people to consider and come to such decision.
“Nigerian Presidency should go to the best candidate who has the vision and mission of taking Nigeria and Nigerians from poverty to wealth; from insecurity of lives and property to living secured, prosperous and in abundance; regardless of party affiliations, religion or tribe,” said Bayo Olateju, who read a communique issued by the YCE after a meeting in Ibadan.
Ndieze Udo N’Uzo Ije, the Council of Igbo traditional rulers and title holders in Lagos State, have also declared that it has not adopted any presidential or governorship candidate.
The group’s Chairman, Godian Ojiaku, said as the leaders of the people at the grassroots, they need to know what the presidential and governorship candidates will offer if elected before they would instruct their members to vote for anyone.
His words: “Although we are not politicians, we believe that we have a lot to contribute in deciding who wins this or that election in the Southwest zone, most especially Lagos State because we are in control of the grassroots.”
South East
Pundits believe that Jonathan may get up to 80 per cent of the vote in Imo State because of the fear that Buhari may Islamise the country if he becomes President.
They also see the APC as a “Yoruba party” under the control of former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu.
Right from the First Republic, the South East has not fully aligned with Yoruba-led political parties, rather it feels at ease with parties led by Northerners.
There was an alignment between the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Council of Nigeria Citizens (NCNC) in the First Republic which produced Abubakar Tafawa Balewa of the NPC as Prime Minister and Nnamdi Azikiwe of NCNC as ceremonial President.
In 1979, President Shehu Shagari’s National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was in alliance with Azikiwe’s Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP).
South East politicians seem not to be comfortable with South West politics; therefore, Buhari may not get a lot of votes from South East because of his membership of the APC controlled by the Yoruba.
Jonathan may carry the South East but not without the APC putting up a strong show.
Although the general impression is that the zone benefitted immensely from his administration, most South Easterners think his appointment of people from the region benefit individuals, and does not translate into a great advantage for the region.
Nonetheless, in Imo, Enugu, Abia, Anambra, and Ebonyi there seems to be strong evidence that Ndigbo have attachment to Jonathan.
Aside from Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha, other governors in the South East are die-hard PDP stalwarts.
Even if Okorocha is elected for a second tenure, the people may go for Jonathan in the presidential ballot.
PDP National Vice Chairman (South East), Austin Akobundu, said: “The South East, apart from being an impregnable forte of the PDP, the APC’s ideology of lies, deceit, divisiveness and violence is a vexatious stigma that makes support for it a cardinal sin among the peace loving people of the zone.
“One thing is sure: There is no place for the APC in the South East, so they should not hope to get any vote from the zone.
“The bitter truth is that the five states of the South East are solidly in support of the PDP and will deliver a block vote for Jonathan and all PDP candidates. We therefore wish to advise the APC, its presidential candidate as well as other candidates not to waste energy in the zone.”
Most Ndigbo still recall that when Buhari was military Head of State, he did not remember the South East for any concrete project but rather jailed South East leaders such as former Vice President, Alex Ekwueme, and former Governor of the old Anambra State, Jim Nwobodo.
However, Ohanaeze Ndigbo seem to have endorsed Jonathan.
South South
In the South South, Buhari may garner more votes than Jonathan in Edo State, courtesy of Governor Adams Oshiomhole.
Analysts say Oshiomhole has impressed Edo people with his performance, and whoever he supports for president will get their vote. He has also been effective in campaigning for Buhari in public rallies and town hall meetings.
The enthusiasm for Buhari among Edo people seem to be high.
Rivers seemed to have been safe for Jonathan until the defection of Governor Rotimi Amaechi to the APC. Jonathan received 1,854,116 votes in the state in 2011, Buhari got 3, 470.
But this election may not be business as usual for the PDP since Amaechi has banded with the APC against Jonathan.
The current momentum for Buhari may eat deep into Jonathan’s 2011 votes, or even cause an upset.
Analysts said Amaechi has portrayed Jonathan’s government as anti-Rivers people, citing the disputed Soku oil field allegedly ceded to Jonathan’s home state of Bayelsa.
Edo and Rivers may pose a problem for Jonathan, but he is likely to have a smooth-sailing in Cross River, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Delta.