By Ishaya Ibrahim
Undoubtedly, the South East will be a roller coaster ride for the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar.
The region has 10 million registered voters, up from the 7.6 million it had in the 2015 poll.
Buhari’s performances in the South East have always been poor. In the 2011 election, only 22,335 people voted for him out of the 5 million people that took part in the election.
His votes in the 2011 election represent 0.4 per cent.
In the 2015 election, Buhari’s votes shot up by 7 per cent. This time, he was able to convince 198,242 people to vote for him out of the 2.6 million South Easterners that voted the APC or the PDP.
Jonathan swept the remaining 2.5 million votes, which is the equivalent of 93 per cent.
Atiku is expected to defeat Buhari by a wide margin in this election, especially as he has chosen one of their own, Peter Obi, as his running mate.
The voter turnout and margin of defeat Buhari will suffer in the South East will determine who wins the overall election.
If the South East records such a low turn out as it did in the 2015 election, that is, 33 per cent, the Buhari’s votes may not be affected significantly.
On the other hand, if the voter turnout is as high as it was in 2011, which is 67 per cent, the impact will be catastrophic for Buhari’s candidacy. He may have as much as 6 million votes deficit, enough to cancel his advantage in the North West.
Overall, Atiku is set to clinch 90 per cent of the South East votes.