By Ishaya Ibrahim
The governorship poll on March 11 will be a tough call for bookmakers.
The encroachment of the Labour Party in some of the strongholds of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has increased the uncertainty of the contest.
But here is how the parties and their candidates are expected to perform.
South West
In the South West, the 2023 governorship election will hold only in Lagos, Ogun and Oyo. The others – Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti are off-season. The All Progressives Congress (APC) holds sway in this region with the exception of Oyo, which is in the column of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The emergence of the former governor of Lagos State, Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the winner of the February 25 presidential election, has somehow increased the prospect of the party retaining its dominance in the region. Yet it will still not be a tea party for the APC, even in Lagos where Tinubu hails from.
Lagos: The race for Lagos Government House is between the incumbent governor who is the candidate of the APC, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the Lead Visioner of Lagos4Lagos Movement, a former APC chieftain and now governorship candidate of the PDP, Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran, popularly known as Jandor and the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), the MIT trained Architect, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, otherwise known as GRV.
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APC has continually produced the governor of Lagos State since 1999, with Tinubu as the real power behind the throne. Like Luis XIV, Tinubu is Lagos and Lagos is Tinubu. He won’t let the state slip easily and may do everything to avert the repeat of the presidential poll outcome in Lagos which saw him trail the LP behind.
The PDP appears too weaken in this race following its lacklustre performance in Lagos during the presidential election. More so that some of its chieftains, including Chief Bode George and ex-deputy governor, Bukcknor Akerele, have already endorsed GRV.
Notwithstanding the endorsement GRV has been enjoying, confronting APC in the governorship race is a different political game. This is because the factors that gave Labour Party the lead in the presidential election are different for the governorship poll. All the candidates are Lagosians who come from different political and social bases. Hence, the votes Labour Party secured in Lagos during the presidential election may be split during the governorship poll for both GRV and Jandor, leaving Sanwo-Olu with the advantage.
Ogun: In Ogun, the contest is too close to call. The APC candidate, Dapo Abiodun has a formidable opponent in Ladi Adebutu, the candidate of the PDP. Adebutu’s chances are further bolstered by his running mate, Adekunle Akinlade who in 2019, only lost the governorship contest to Abiodun by just about 19,000 votes. The duo looks good to unseat Abiodun.
Oyo: The incumbent governor who is the PDP candidate for Oyo State, Seyi Makinde, is up against a strong Oyo politician and candidate of the APC, Teslim Folarin. The contest appears to be a battle of equals.
While Makinde enjoys the power of the incumbent with state resources at his disposal, Folarin rides on both his resources and those of the APC as the ruling party. Although Makinde tacitly supported Tinubu during the presidential election, there are no guarantees that the gesture would be reciprocated. The poll can go anyways in Oyo.
South East
The South East is the home of PDP, APC and APGA in that order, and the contest is likely to follow that pattern. But with the emergence of Peter Obi as the candidate of the Labour Party, and the Obidents in their millions, Labour Party Governorship and House of Assembly candidates in the South East could profit from that surge.
The governorship election in the South East will only hold in Abia, Enugu and Ebonyi. Imo and Anambra are off-season.
Abia: The PDP governorship candidate for Abia State, Okey Ahaiwe, just got into the fray recently following the death of Prof Uchenna Ikonne, the party’s flag bearer. He will be up against the Labour Party candidate, Alex Otti, the APC candidate, Ikechi Emenike and the APGA candidate, Professor Greg Ibe.
In Abia, the PDP will face the difficult task of retaining the state as the Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, hasn’t performed so well in the estimation of many analysts. He even lost his bid to transit to the Senate. Otti could pose a real threat and with the backing of the Obidents, it might just be an easy ride.
Enugu: The contest for Enugu is a three-horse race between the PDP, APGA and Labour Party. The PDP governorship candidate is Peter Mbah, Frank Nwike Jnr is the APGA candidate, and while Labour Party has Chijioke Edeoga. The race will be keenly contested and the votes are up for grabs by any of the three candidates.
Ebonyi: Ebonyi is in the column of the APC and appears well entrenched owing to the performance of the outgoing governor, Dave Umahi, who by many accounts, is said to have performed creditably well as the governor of the state.
Umahi, who contested as a senatorial candidate on the platform of the APC, clinched the seat and ensured that his party won the other two slots. The APC looks in a pole position to retain the governorship.
The APC governorship candidate is the Speaker of the Ebonyi State House of Assembly, Francis Ogbonnaya Nwifuru. The PDP is deep in crisis in Ebonyi state. Its candidate, Dr Ifeanyi Chukwuma Odi, emerged after a contentious primary that left the party in disarray, and that may affect the party’s chances.
South-South
The South-South is the playfield of the PDP, and appears unstoppable, except for Cross River where the APC holds sway. Even that is not a guarantee that the APC to retain it.
Elections in the South-South will hold in Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Cross River. Edo and Bayelsa are off-seasons.
Rivers: Siminialayi Fubara, a former accountant-general with the Rivers State Government, is the PDP governorship candidate for Rivers State. Rivers is a PDP bastion and could have been an easy ride for the party except that it is deeply fragmented and the opposing camps are fighting mortal combat.
Fubara’s opponents are also not any better. Tonye Cole is the APC candidate in the state, Magnus Abe is the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Beatrice Itubo, is the Labour Party governorship candidate. They all have political turbulence within their parties. As it stands, the PDP has a slight edge but could as well be dislodged in a last-minute alliance.
Delta State: The current speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, Sheriff Oborevwori, is the governorship candidate of the PDP. He is up against Ovie Omo-Agege, the APC candidate.
Delta is like Rivers, a stronghold of the PDP, but the APC has made an in-road, taking two out of the three senatorial seats during the last National Assembly election. Omo Agege may as well pull some surprises. The poll is too close to call.
Akwa Ibom: Another pillar of the PDP, Akwa Ibom is not likely to change in the 2023 poll. Umo Eno, a former commissioner for lands and water resources is the PDP candidate in the state. He faces Akanimo Udofia of the APC and Senator Bassey Albert Akpan of the YPP.
The YPP candidate, Akpan, was sentenced to seven years in prison in December last year, although currently out on bail.
The APC candidate, Udofia, faces stiff opposition among party folks in the state. The PDP looks good in Akwa Ibom.
Cross River: Cross River is the only state in the South-South that is in the column of the APC. Senator Bassey Otu is the party’s candidate. He faces another senator, Sandy Onor of the PDP. The contest will be fierce as it is a battle of equals.
North-Central
The North Central is fluid politically. The voters in the region are like the great Economist, John Maynard Keane, who says: “when the facts change, I change my mind.” They change political parties as quickly as the situation demands.
Niger: Niger started in 1999 as a PDP stronghold but changed to the APC in 2015. In 2023, there is no certainty that the voters will make their governor between the APC candidate, Mohammed Inuwa Bago and the PDP candidate, Isah Liman Kantigi. Both men are enormously popular. Niger is a state to watch.
Benue: Benue has also moved from PDP to APC and now PDP since 1999. The election in 2023 is between the PDP’s Titus Uba, who is the Speaker of the State House of Assembly, the Labour Party’s Herman Hembe and a suspended Catholic Priest, Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia.
There have been agitations for the PDP to zone its ticket to the Idoma-speaking part, but the governor of the state, Samuel Ortom refused and handed the ticket to his majority-speaking Tiv to produce the governor for the fourth time since 1999. This may trigger a protest vote and might see the suspended priest, also a Tiv, having an edge if the Idomas give him their vote.
Plateau: Plateau started as a PDP stronghold in 1999, then moved to the APC in 2015. Whether the APC will retain it in 2023 is not yet clear given the people’s discontent with the ruling party at the centre over the state of insecurity, for which the residents of Plateau State have borne the greatest brunt. The governorship contest is however between the APC’s Dr Nentanwe Yilwatda Goshwe, PDP’s Caleb Mutfwang and the Labour Party’s Dr. Patrick Dakum.
Former Governor of Plateau State, Joshua Dariye, is believed to be backing the Labour Party, and that appears to put its candidate in a favourable standing. The poll is too close to call.
Kwara: Incumbent Governor of Kwara State, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq is the candidate of the APC. He is not only up against the PDP candidate, Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi, but the political machine of former Senate President, Bukola Saraki. In the 2015 election, Abdulrazaq disrupted the political dynasty which Saraki inherited from his father. The dynasty started in 1999 with the ANPP, then moved to the PDP until Abdulrazak came through with his Otoge (It’s enough) movement to end it. All eyes are on Kwara to see how things will play out. But there are indications to suggest that the APC is shaky in Kwara.
Nasarawa: Governor Abdullahi Sule is seeking re-election on the platform of the APC against PDP’s David Ombugadu. This is the second time both men would be squaring each other in a political contest. The first was in 2019 and Sule won. Will he win the second time? Only time will tell.
North West
The governorship contest in the North West promises to be stiff, especially in Kaduna and Kano.
Kaduna: The APC fielded Uba Sani as the candidate in the election, while PDP puts forward Isa Ashiru. Ashiru contested against Governor Nasir El-Rufai in the 2019 election and lost. Has he learned how to counter the APC this time? Meanwhile, the APC is using its 2019 strategy of Muslim-Muslim ticket in this election. It worked in 2023 but will it work this time?
The Muslim-Muslim ticket may not favour El-Rufai’s candidate in the next election. This is because he has embarked on some anti-masses measures that may put him even against his own people in the next election.
One of those anti-masses measures is the sacking spree, especially for teachers and local government workers. Civil servants in Kaduna feel they don’t have job security with him.
Although El-Rufai has recruited some teachers to fill the void created by the sack, the incredibly low wage (some of them with a BSc degree are earning N40,000), has fueled more discontent against the ruling party.
The people are also not happy with El-Rufai for demolishing their major markets and leaving them without a place to transact business. There is a high chance the PDP may reclaim Kaduna.
Kano: The APC is fielding the Kano State Deputy Governor, Dr Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna in a contest that will be fierce. The PDP has Sadiq Wali, while the NNPP fields Abba Kabir, popularly known as Abba Gida Gida. The battle is between the APC and NNPP, with NNPP having a better chance. But APC in Kano has always shown that it cannot be underrated.
Sokoto: Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, narrowly won his re-election on the platform of the PDP in 2019. Now that he is not on the ballot as Governor, will the PDP candidate, Sa’idu Umar, survive the election against the resilient APC? The APC fields a former deputy governor of the state, Alhaji Ahmed Aliyu as its candidate. The battle is too close to call.
Kebbi: The PDP has been amassing strengths with major defections to its favour hoping to use it in dislodging the ruling APC in Kebbi state. The senators; Adamu Aliero and Abdullahi Yahaya, ditched the APC for the PDP early in May last year. Could that change anything in Kebbi politics? The contest for the state governorship is between the APC’s Nasir Idris and the PDP’s Aminu Mohammed Bande. Kebbi is also too close to call but tilts more in favour of the PDP.
Katsina: Katsina flipped to the APC in 2015 for the first time since 1999. That is the home state of President Muhammadu Buhari, and keeping the state in the APC column will be a measure of Buhari’s home popularity. Can he do that, especially with major defections from his party to the PDP? Recall that the senator representing Buhari’s constituency, Senator Ahmed Baba-Kaita dumped the ruling party for the PDP. How much of things can that change? The 2023 contest is between Dikko Radda of APC, Yakubu Lado of PDP and Nura Khalil of NNPP. The contest in Katsina is too close to call.
Zamfara: The incumbent Governor, Bello Matawalle seeks re-election as the APC candidate against PDP’s Dauda Lawal. Lawal, a former banker, is enormously popular, but he faces an incumbent with an incredible amount of war chest in a state rife with poverty. The odds favour APC.
Jigawa: Former Governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, put forward his son, Mustapha, as the PDP’s candidate. That has irritated a number of people. The young Lamido faces the ruling APC’s Umar Namadi who is the state’s deputy governor. The contest may go either way, but the APC looks good.
North East
North East is the region of the PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. Atiku won five out of the six states during the presidential election. Will things change in the governorship election?
Borno: Borno has since 1999 historically remained in the ANPP, which is now APC. When one of the sitting governors, Mala Kachalla, defected to the Alliance for Democracy (AD), he lost re-election. Governor Babagana Zulum who is the candidate of the APC is unlikely to lose the election to the PDP’s Mohammed Jajiri.
Yobe: Like Borno, Yobe has traditionally been a fortress of the APC. Yobe is ethnically related to Borno, and they go the same direction as Borno politically except in the 2023 election which saw Atiku polling more votes than the APC candidate, Tinubu.
The governorship candidates for Yobe are Mai Mala Buni of APC and the PDP’s Shariff Abdullahi. Buni looks more likely to win the race.
Adamawa: The home state of Atiku Abubakar is likely going the way of the PDP just as it did when Ahmadu Fintiri defeated an incumbent. Fintiri is facing the APC Aishatu Binani. The PDP looks good in Adamawa.
Bauchi: Historically, Bauchi has moved from PDP to APC and now PDP. The governor, Bala Mohammed, faces the APC’s Abubakar Sadique, the former Chief of Air Staff. It’s a battle of a political strategist versus a military strategist. It could go either way, but the PDP has the edge.
Gombe: Mohammed Inuwa Yahaya seeks re-election as Governor of Gombe State on the platform of the APC against Jibrin Barde. The vote could go either way.
Taraba: This is a traditional PDP fortress. The PDP fields a former military officer, Lt Col Agbu Kefas against the APC’s Emmanuel Bwacha. While the PDP still has an edge, the APC cannot be wished away.