With proven oil reserves estimated to run out by 2069, Nigeria must transition from a natural resource driven economy to an industrialized economy. It is the only future that Nigerians can truly hope for.
By Napoleon Esemudje
Back to 1914
For an imperial power with a relatively short-term colonial outlook and a very low-cost operational strategy, amalgamation was a rational if not pragmatic model for the British. For post-independence Nigeria however, primordial ethnic and religious fault lines quickly laid bare the fragile frame of this model. And worse, a cross-cultural practice of elite avarice has enabled the emergence and entrenchment of a predatory political class adept at state capture.
The result is a country performing below its enormous resource capacity and where separatist sentiments simmer just below the surface more than six decades after independence and more than 100 years after amalgamation. So, what will be the nature of Nigerian politics and by implication, the country’s fate over the next century?
Would Nigeria continue along the path of “natural evolution than of reversal” envisaged by Lord Lugard or will the centrifugal force of ethno-religious fault lines prove deep enough to become fissures? Will the country’s political class and their enablers amongst the social-economic elites overcome their predatory instincts for securing and preserving power and control? Or will future leaders find the moral fortitude and altruistic depth to finally establish the patriotic vision “to build a nation where peace and justice shall reign”?
These are important questions with open-ended answers though one may argue that it is likely that Nigeria will continue to evolve. Certainly, the unintended consequences of many of the issues already highlighted in this article will force changes one way or the other. But how well the country evolves and the direction and outcome of its evolution will be determined by the actions of its political and socio-economic elites.
Radical changes may be ignited by mass protests from ordinary citizens but it is the country’s functional elites particularly those with the socio-economic leverage that would ultimately determine its ends and outcomes. Regrettably, politics around the world is never in short supply of men and women skilled in the old-time methods of guile, self-interest, and treachery.
But there are too many leaders in Nigeria for whom personal honour is a strange concept. History has shown that true statesmen, men, and women who think and act with consideration for positive generational impact are rare in post-independence Nigeria. Thoughts of historical legacy are meaningless for leaders consumed by the urges of instant gratification.
It is also quite difficult to find political actors willing and able to work against the prevailing winds in a distinctly incestuous political ecosystem where political creeds are as fluid as oily interests. Perhaps it may be naïve to think any of these realities can be changed. At least not until such a time when a critical mass of citizens are politically well informed, engaged and energized enough to rise above their ethnic or religious allegiance. Or more importantly, not until a powerful core of Nigeria’s elites are determined enough to build the required consensus for the positive transformation of the country.
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As it is, no one can say when this could happen or if it will happen at all within the next 100 years. But against the swell of cynicism and contempt for their political leaders, when it comes to their personal prospects, Nigerians are eternal optimists. E go better, a Pidgin English cliché (meaning it will get better soon) often uttered with a sigh, is a common refrain.
The making of green shoots
It is this steadfast tug of hope that urges us to believe that positive transformational change will yet come to Nigeria. It may likely come gradually, like little drops of light rain that waters the seeds of progress and germinates over time.
Or it may come suddenly, like a flood that washes away the layers of filth that clogs the wheels of our political, social, and economic development. And if this happens, whenever it does, Nigeria will flourish like never before. Because despite the odds, setbacks and the many, often scandalous failures of its leaders, Nigeria has recorded two critical achievements.
First, it has survived as one entity, providing a home and a human development launch pad for tens of millions of its citizens including a shrunken but resilient middleclass. Secondly, majority of people in Nigeria are tremendously far better off today than their forebears in 1914.
Equally noteworthy, Nigeria has seen green shoots of promise in the creative capacity of many of its people particularly in the fields of entertainment and technology. Much has been written about the former than the latter. But Nigeria’s future as a great power lies more in the growth of its indigenous technological capacity.
Fortunately, led by an increasingly savvy generation of young software developers and innovators, local technology has boomed in recent years particularly in the Fintech space. Here the creative space is readily open to capable individuals with the right coding skills and entrepreneurial drive to create problem-solving applications.
And in the age of social media and cloud computing, a good software or application with visible utility can attract global capital even with little or no brick-and-mortar infrastructure. The same cannot be said for the heavy engineering industries required to build the machineries and hardware that Nigeria sorely needs. Here significant and structural investments in land, labour and capital as well as the support of state institutions are fundamental.
As only a very small number of Nigerian entrepreneurs have ventured into this space, the country needs to set audacious industrial development goals. Nigeria’s leaders must vigorously pursue and support the growth of capable entrepreneurs to manufacture many of the steel, trains, aircrafts, ships, motor vehicles, electronic gadgets, and other machineries the country needs. This is the fundamental foundation of all advanced economies.
In need of an economic miracle
Nominally, Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa with US$440 billion up from its 1960 baseline figure of US$4.2 billion (now equivalent to about US$10billion today). But World Bank figures for 2021 also showed that with US$2,085.00, Nigeria is below the top 15 countries in Africa when ranked by GDP per capita (a measure of productivity or output per person in a country).
Nigeria trails behind continental contenders like South Africa (ranked 6th with US$6,994.20) and Egypt (ranked 11th with US$ 3,876.40). The GDP per capita measure is indicative of the future challenge Nigeria faces given its huge population. A significant increase in Nigeria’s population numbers over the next century without a corresponding increase in economic growth will be reflected in decreasing GDP per capita and by implication, decreased prosperity for the average Nigerian.
The country would have to grow its GDP to at least US$813 billion in 2050 and US$1.52 trillion by 2100 to maintain its current GDP per capita of US$2,085.00. This requires at least an annual growth rate of 3% per annum. But these are simply baseline expectations and Nigeria can do much better.
A far more ambitious target would be to aim for a GDP per capita rate equal to that of South Africa’s current rate of US$6,994. This would translate to a GDP of US$2.7 trillion in 2050 and more than US$5trillion in 2100. It will also require a sustained double-digit economic growth rate of at least 13.5% to 18.5% per annum.
Perhaps given the current state of the economy, these are seemingly inconceivable targets, the achievement of which would be nothing short of an economic miracle. But with the right socio-political and economic policies and actions, they are not impossible. Certainly, Nigeria can achieve and surpass a trillion-dollar GDP mark on or before 2050.
Indeed, a determined economic liberalisation programme at the turn of the 21st century significantly boosted economic growth and pushed Nigeria’s GDP to an all-time high of US$540 billion in 2014. But the soft underbelly of the economy has always been its disproportionate and chronic addiction to volatile oil revenues and a stunted manufacturing base. Then there is the age-long affliction of endemic corruption and mismanagement. And to these afflictions, have recently been added the plague of insecurity and low-level insurrection.
The future we hope for
For these and other reasons, the country has grossly underachieved and its leaders have become, it appears, accustomed to the self-limiting inertia of low expectations. Too many are content with being the best amongst the worst performers in the world, particularly amongst countries that lack the immense potentials of Nigeria.
Blessed with the luck of geography and a surplus of human and natural resources, Nigeria has all it takes to be a truly great power, one that would inspire an entire continent and its people. But for this to happen, Nigeria must overcome several ifs.
If Nigeria focuses on the quality of education of its young people, particularly their primary, secondary, and technical education system, the country could develop the most competent, innovative and entrepreneurial workforce in the world.
If Nigeria sorts out its incapacitating power sector, the country could become one of the world’s leading low-cost manufacturing hubs. And if Nigeria successfully develops the capacity to manufacture high value machineries, the country could become one of the world’s top 10 economies by GDP.
The latter is an existential imperative for this hugely populous country. With proven oil reserves estimated to run out by 2069, Nigeria must transition from a natural resource driven economy to an industrialized economy. It is the only future that Nigerians can truly hope for.
- Concluded