Assistant Politics Editor, DANIEL KANU, x-rays the emerging dangerous political developments in Nigeria with all indices tilting towards one-party state.
When the leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) boasted that the party would be in power for 60 years, most Nigerians criticised the statement credited to the former national chairman of the party, Vincent Ogbulafor, as an affront to Nigerians and the institution of democracy.
After Ogbulafor, more PDP chieftains continued to maintain such braggadocio with no apology, perhaps realising that the opposition political parties have not formed a formidable front to challenge its audacity.
Given emerging political developments in the land, critics seem to be contending that Nigeria appears to be dangerously slipping into a one-party state, unless something politically fundamental happens within the opposition camp.
Expectations from APC
When the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is perceived as the biggest opposition party in the country, was registered in July 2013, its leadership then perceived a defining moment in Nigeria’s political history.
APC had continued to pride itself as the party of the progressives, and sees the PDP as a conservative party. It was a cheering news when the APC was registered after all intrigues to put spanner in the works.
It was even more cheering when some governors left the PDP for the APC, leaving political watchers to conclude, perhaps hastily, that the development would deepen the nation’s fledgling democracy. The popular verdict then was that with not less than 16 governors in its fold, APC would fly.
The party leadership envisioned the strengthening of a strong two-party system. In its calculations, the defection then made it a strong alternative to the PDP, which is holding sway in the centre, with higher chances of even defeating it in the coming 2015 elections.
Such was the level of optimism generated. There were merits in the optimism, especially when the efforts that crystallised into the formation of APC are put into reckoning.
Expectedly, some very fundamental issues were thrown up by the defection. The strengthening of a two-party system was one, especially given the fear for the gradual dangerous slide to a one-party state. There was also the issue of giving the electorate a plurality of choice.
To most political watchers the development is bound to find expression in the emerging order, provided certain conditions are met.
The first of such conditions was that the two parties must be visibly distinct in both ideology and orientation, to be able to offer alternative political choice.
Also, their manifestoes and programmes must proffer alternative paradigms on governance, compatibility of interests, orientation and perception on the essence of governance which is a sine qua non for co-habitation.
Political commentators have expressed worry that with the attitude of politicians, particularly opposition politicians, at jumping into the boat of ruling PDP, the possibility of the nation slidding into one-party state appears to be higher.
The Baraje barge
Political observers thought the defection of the Abubakar Baraje-led PDP to the APC, which dominated public discourse at the time, would herald a redefinition of the political equation of the country, which was bound to send the ruling party back to the drawing board. Commentators saw the development as providing higher prospects for coalescing interests that would culminate in the emergence of two strong parties that can really battle each other during elections. The defection was also perceived by many as the long-awaited birth of a two-party system and a prelude to the deepening of democracy in Nigeria.
The permutation was that in the days ahead, the nation would witness alignments and re-alignments among the various political interests. Going by all emerging indices, that calculation, to most critics, seems not to be working out.
Return of Mimiko
After he laboured to build the Labour Party (LP), Ondo State Governor, Olusegun Mimiko, dumped the party recently for the PDP. He was given an elaborate welcome to his new party which he had always sworn he would not be part of.
Mimiko, until his final defection, continued to describe his reported plan to defect to the PDP as “a rumour”.
He reportedly told journalists at LP’s last National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Abuja last month: “I don’t want to react to that because it is a mere rumour.”
Even at the declaration of the LP NEC meeting open, the National Chairman, Dan Nwanyanwu, even debunked reports that Mimiko was planning to leave the party. He said the party was not aware of the move, and that the governor would not have attended the meeting if he had harboured such a plan.
“You have seen him (Mimiko) here. As I’m talking to you, he is still a bona fide member of the Labour Party,” he said.
“We don’t have to base everything on speculation. You can see that he is here and we have discussed everything concerning the Labour Party together. He is here live and direct.”
Mimiko is the vice chairman of the Jonah Jang faction of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF).
The governor, who is known as the Iroko, was a member of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), and had served as Health Commissioner in the administration of the late Governor Adebayo Adefarati between 1999 and 2003.
Peter Obi joins
Former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, has also abandoned the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) for the PDP.
Obi’s defection came to reality after leaders of the PDP held a meeting with him in his Onitsha home. The PDP delegation, according to reports, was led by the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekwerumadu.
The PDP National Chairman, Adamu Mu’azu, represented by the publicity secretary, Olisa Metuh, said the visit was as a result of the resolution by the entire South East to pay him a visit and persuade him to join the PDP for more meaningful contribution to national affairs.
Obi had told the party members that he was humbled by the visit, expressing appreciation that he was considered an important political leader from the South East.
Said Obi: “I thank you for your continued belief and commitment to the welfare of our people and the progress of our country.
“I have, in the past, worked closely with all of you, and you know my belief about our zone working together. I assure you that we will continue to work even closer as a team in the interest of our people. Regarding your visit of today, let me assure you that I heard your kind and passionate requests and that your journey would not be in vain, but in the best interest of our people.”
After the discussions, Obi explained that “the issue of joining a national party is not about what was happening in APGA, but because of the need to be a competitor and not a spectator in national affairs”.
The Ali Modu-Sheriff connection
Ali Modu-Sheriff has also jumped ship to the PDP. He was one of the strong pillars of the APC. Critics are of the opinion that there is no major reason for Sheriff to want to return to PDP, except only to get a safe haven where he can effectively absolve himself of rampant allegations that he is one of the major sponsors of the Boko Haram sect. But he has denied all that.
Other views
Chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Appropriation, John Enoh, shares the views that the large cross-over by many political bigwigs, including lawmakers, to PDP will lead to a one-party state.
The lawmaker, who has expressed interest in representing the Cross River Central at the Senate come 2015 told TheNiche that as the nation’s political system gets stronger, the issue will be a thing of the past.
Said Enoh: “I wish it wasn’t happening. But the hope is that as we keep on this system and sustain it for long, it will get to a point that it won’t happen anymore. I think our party system doesn’t seem to be as strong, compared to what we have in other democracies.
“If you go to the United States, people are born into the Republican Party, some are born into the Democratic Party; so in such situations, it will become very strange that you can find somebody leaving one party for the other.
“But in fairness to our system, there doesn’t appear to be any difference between the parties. We still seem to be belonging to parties as a platform to get power. It will get to a time that things like that will change, when it gets to that time, you will not find these movements anymore.
“I don’t think it will lead the nation into a one-party state. If anybody ever thought that we are slipping into a one-party state, what has happened to this country in the last couple of months, with the opposition party being able to get together, should at least allay the fears. If you look at the governors on both sides, you will know that we are not actually headed for a one-party system. Instead, it will lead to a two-party system, which will make our political system more robust.”
For Catholic Archbishop of Sokoto, Matthew Kukah, Nigerians should not have the notion that one day they would have a leader that would come and solve all their problems.
Said the radical priest: “Leaders have to lead based on certain beliefs and principles. It is difficult to lead Nigeria because the followership is far more educated and better equipped than those who are holding public offices.”
Kukah said the answer to the problem is not replacing the PDP with APC, but that politicians must face the challenge of making politics noble. He stressed that the benefits of democracy are largely intangible.