Science, technology and innovation: We are on the verge of a possible question of illegitimacy on the part of the current government. Let me explain. INEC had announced that they registered more than 93 million Nigerians to vote. In the event less than 30% of voters actually did cast their votes of which less than one third voted for the eventual candidate INEC declared winner. The declared winner scored 8.9 million votes, the second candidate scored 6.9 million votes, the third candidate scored 6.1 million and the fourth candidate scored nearly 1.5 million votes. In other words, more than two thirds of those who voted (the majority) did not vote for the declared winner. So, the results indicate that the majority nearly twice the number that voted for the declared winner voted against the declared ‘winning’ candidate. This raises the question whether in a democracy it is legitimate to have the minority of voters to foist their choice on the majority.
1. INTRODUCTION
From the mid-seventeenth century to the early nineteenth century the protestant reformation had created an environment where new ideas could sprout and flourish. The German sociologists (Max Weber) had promoted the idea that the protestant ethic had catalyzed the emergence of the spirit of capitalism not by inventing the pursuit of wealth, but rather by defining and promoting an ethics of everyday behavior that conduce to economic success.
Calvinist Protestantism is derived from the idea of predestination which morphed into a secular code of behavior and proper thoughts and promoted the pursuit of the values of hard work, honesty, seriousness and the thrifty use of money and time. These values promoted business and the accumulation of capital. Although the good Calvinist did not aim for riches (even when he might believe that honest riches was a divine favour). He aimed to live and work in a certain way. It was the way that mattered and riches became at best a by-product of that kind of life.
Additionally, the sociologist Robert K. Merton argued that there is a direct link between Protestantism and the rise of modern science. Whether in the pursuit of capitalism or the emergence of modern science the protestant ethic, the heart of the matter lies in the promotion of a new man: rational, ordered, diligent and productive hence, Calvinist Protestantism implanted these virtues amongst its believers who judged one another by the level of conformity to these standards.
As Weber pointed out, people of all faiths and even of no faith can grow up to be rational, diligent, orderly, productive, clean and humourless as these patterns can be seen in all walks of life.
According to him, in the 16th -18th century we observed the emergence of certain types who created a new mode of economy and a new mode of production which we have now termed industrial capitalism.
2. SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
With the emergence of capitalism and its hand maiden science, the stage was now set to exploit the methodologies inherent in both the methods of science and the drivers of capitalism. Of particular interest was what we now recognize as the scientific method. In this schema, a method of procedure which has characterized natural science since the 17th century emerges consisting in systematic observation, measurement, and experiments leading to the formulation, testing and eventually the modification of a hypothesis.
As it has been noted, criticism is the backbone of the scientific method. Albeit, there are six interlinked steps in the operation of the scientific method, namely:
• Asking a question arising from observation;
• Doing background research to learn what is already known about the subject;
• Constructing a hypothesis to explain what has been observed;
• Experimenting to test the hypothesis;
• Analyzing the data from the experiment and drawing conclusions; and finally
• Communicating the results to other scientists.
Operationalizing the results of the scientific methods leads to the new ways that the data can be utilized or used and applied in the solution and strategies to realize the results through practical application to solve the problem now embodied as technology.
The systematic application of technology to solve extant problems in the 1830s, to 1840s in Great Britain gave rise to the industrial revolution. This was therefore a period when scientific and technological development in the 18th century transformed rural and agrarian societies into industrial urban centers.
This first industrial revolution was followed by three new subsequent phases which other sequels inaugurated as industrial revolutions. The first industrial revolution started in Britain in the 1830s to the 1840s but soon spread to the rest of Europe and the United States. Most impacted were the textile industries.
Goods that before then were painstakingly crafted by hand started to be produced in mass by machines in factories engineered by the new iron industries. The entry of the steam engine was critical as it became useful in the flour, paper and cotton mills as well as in such infrastructure as water works, canals and the rail roads where it engineered the transformation of transportation.
The second industrial revolution was a phase of rapid scientific discovery, standardization, mass production and industrialization from late 19th century into the early twentieth century.
Ground breaking advances in manufacturing technology and industrial production methods includes the telegraph especially in Britain, United States and Germany. Among the many inventions of the third industrial revolution, three inventions standout: fibre optics, the transistor and mass production with new materials, alloys and chemicals. This marked the emergence of material sciences as a discipline. Taken together, the communication technologies (the telegraph, telephone and radio) led to faster transmission of news and new ideas which packaged as general information became more democratized and accessible. Indeed, information technologies have experienced massive increase in capabilities and decreasing costs for years now.
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We are in the period of big bang disruption driven by the latest in soft-ware, memory, and communication which tends to be mainstream, high quality, very innovative and at lower cost: cell phones have displaced photo cameras, day timers, video cameras, watches, maps auto GPS system, music players and more.
The fourth industrial revolution conceptualizes rapid change to technology, industries and societal patterns and processes in the 21st century. It is a new chapter in human development, enabled by extraordinary advancement in technology commensurate with those of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd industrial revolutions: it enforces on us the need to re-think how countries develop, how organizations create value and even what it means to be human, given the emergence of AI (Artificial intelligence).
3. SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPMENT
It is usual to hear people discuss the state of nations as developed, developing or in a state of under-development.
National Development refers to the ability of a nation to improve the lives of its citizens. The measure of improvement may be material such as an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) or social capital such as literacy rates and the availability of health care.
Economic development is the long-term process of building an array of inter-dependent micro-economic capabilities and incentives to support more advanced form of competition. In general, the success of any effort at economic development requires sustained improvement in the quality and specialization of a nation’s factor inputs. Thus, for a nation to move beyond poverty it must upgrade its input, institutions and skills to allow more sophisticated forms of competition. Such competitions often lead to increased productivity and the increase in productivity usually entails upgrading human capital, improving infrastructure, opening up for international trade and foreign investment, protecting intellectual property and generally raising regulatory standards to drive improvements in product quality. Indeed, the most basic belief undergirding successful economic development is the acceptance that prosperity depends on productivity rather than the control of resources, government favours, or military power. So, the central issue in economic development is how to create the conditions for rapid and sustained productivity.
This is where the nexus of science, technology and innovation come into play for it is this nexus that provides the anchor for the upgrade in productivity. Consequently, an important belief that is anchored on the productivity paradigm and the message of prosperity is that the potential for wealth is limitless because it is based on innovation, ideas and insights rather than on limited resources. The central idea that wealth can be expanded for many by improving and growing productivity becomes self-evident. This revelation confirms the belief that the central mission of science and technology and innovation in national development is to remove boundaries to limitless wealth and prosperity while exterminating the incubus of poverty.
The starting point for addressing poverty reduction is economic growth which translates to wealth creation. The rate of growth must be accelerated to achieve the urgent priorities of poverty reduction and employment generation.
4. THE PRODUCTIVITY PARADIGM & THE CONCEPT OF COMPARATIVE AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
The productivity paradigm as the basis for wealth and prosperity represents a radical shift from previous conceptions of the sources of national prosperity. Often, attention is focused on the need to build a sound macro-economic, political and legal environment. It is to be noted however that while macroeconomic conditions are important and necessary, productivity depends on activities at the micro-economy. Hence, the stability of the macro-economy is not a sufficient basis for economic growth but the micro economy is the driver of productivity growth and hence determines the level of economic growth. In other words, the foundations of productivity rest on two other inter-related factors: the sophistication of company operations (the micro-economy) and strategy as well as the quality of the micro-economic business environment. The productivity paradigm rests on the fundamental truth that prosperity in the nation rests on the level and growth of productivity in the micro-economy.
Any discussion of the productivity paradigm necessarily requires an understanding of the place of competition in economic development. Up to fifty years ago, it was believed that prosperity and wealth in a nation as resulting from the possession of natural resources such as land, minerals or a pool of labour thus conferring on the nation what was designated as comparative advantage relative to other nations with less favorable endowments.
The emergence of Japan without much endowment of natural resources enforced on us the need to re-examine the notion of comparative advantage. This concept had to yield to the concept of competitive advantage. This latter concept derives from the recognition that the concept of competitive advantage depends on enhanced productivity through the assembling of resources from wherever to create more valuable products and services. Countries which improve on their standard of living thus steering their citizens away from poverty, are becoming more productive through development of more sophisticated sources of competitive advantage based on knowledge, investment insights and innovation.
The recognition of the economic impact of competition in the economy has led to the axiom that if a firm cannot compete at home, it cannot compete abroad. The need to sharpen competition has therefore led to the development of the cluster concept.
A cluster is a geographically concentrated network of industry competitors and the many related and supporting industries and institutions. The cluster-based approach seeks to enhance competition by fostering externalities and removing constraints to productivity and productivity growth. The cluster approach is more decentralized thus stimulating initiatives at the local level.
5. TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT ON THE FAST TRACK
In the light of all that has been said it is now obvious that no nation can escape the poverty trap unless it can fast track the process of increasing productivity as the lynch pin for enhanced and fast paced economic growth.
What arises in our situation is to ask the question; how can we break through the Gordian knot of underdevelopment? It seems evident that the vicious circle of underwhelming economic growth is driving the citizens into overwhelming poverty and under development which can be broken only through the agency of science, technology and innovations as the foundation of higher productivity stimulating fast paced economic growth.
Empirical evidence from examining data from different countries round the world suggests that such fast paced economic growth is difficult but nevertheless achievable. Such data shows that if a nation can achieve 7.5% growth in its gross domestic product (GDP) consistently for a decade, it would at the end of the decade double its gross domestic product (GDP). Maintaining this level of economic growth for a second decade will lift poor countries to the level of medium income countries.
This is the key to the Chinese miracle. In the last three to five decades, the Growth Commission has flagged 13 countries which have achieved this level of growth, namely Botswana, Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, The Republic of Korea (South Korea), Malaysia, Malta, Oman, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. It is important to note that Nigeria achieved a GDP growth of 8% in a particular year in the Jonathan period. So, it is possible to achieve this feat but the challenge is how to sustain it over a decade or more. Additionally, it should be noted that Nigeria’s population growth rate is presently at 3.8% per annum.
Hence Nigeria’s challenge is how to grow the GDP, and the economy at the minimum of 11.0% maintained consistently for a decade or perhaps two decades. If Singapore can lift its citizens from the third world level to the first world in one lifetime, Nigeria also can aim to achieve this feat.
The challenge however is leadership and we will examine this later. Howbeit, the Growth Commission has identified some characteristics common to the high Growth economies namely:
i. Alignment with the global economy through trade;
ii. Macroeconomic stability;
iii. High rate of savings and investments;
iv. Market driven growth; and
v. Credible, capable and competent governance.
The role of government translates therefore to developing a coherent economic strategy, and appointing a knowledgeable, and competent Economic Management Team to steer the strategy. Additionally, each of these nations developed institutions to regulate policy even as the private sector has the role to drive the economic growth through the micro-economy
6. NIGERIA AND THE FUTURE: THE CHALLENGE
In 2011 the book Nigeria: Half a century of progress and challenges edited by Constance Chiogor Ikokwu and to which El-Rufai, Nuhu Ribadu, Chiedu Osakwe, Okonjo Iweala, Mittee Ledum, Anya O. Anya, Oby Ezekwesili, Donald Duke and many other distinguished Nigerians contributed. One of the contributors, a Nigerian diplomat then serving at the World Trade Organization, had contributed a chapter on nation building had this to say:
“Constructing a robust and viable Nigerian state requires government that is democratic, pluralist and inclusive, organized, effectively led, reflecting merit with technocratic implementation of policies that are market based. Competition is the foundation of democratic, meritocratic and market oriented government, with security and the rule of law and the right mix of companion policies, properly sequenced, the chances will increase for growth, for poverty reduction, for development and evolution to regional and perhaps, in time, great power status. Government must be legitimate, radiate confidence and be trusted.”
This summarizes what one can hold out as the right mix of national objectives for a well-endowed and visionary nation. Indeed, if truth be told however we are in a total mess. There is no basis for being expectant and hopeful given where we are presently. In all parts of the country there is every indication that law and order has broken down with insurrection in the north east, banditry and kidnapping in the north west, mindless murder of farmers and entire communities in the north central perpetrated by so called Fulani herdsmen. In the southern geopolitical zones, there are incidences of kidnapping, mindless murder by so called unknown gun men in addition to the activities of separatists. In the economy the nation is being drowned in debts which have risen from about 12trillion naira to nearby ninety trillion naira at the last check. Indeed, the debt management office confirmed recently that debts servicing alone swallows 96% of the total earnings of the Federal Government. Against this picture of the current finances of the Federation we may have to find a new definition for bankruptcy.
We have just come out of our usual 4-year pantomime called elections where the politicians are at their venal best. This year we surpassed previous episodes for the allegation has been forcefully canvassed with a mountain of documents that our propensity for manipulating elections has now been fully digitalized. As we await the verdict of the Judiciary, there is no doubt that the deficit of trust in the judiciary is now at an all-time low. The buying of votes either at the party primaries or at the INEC alleged bazaar for votes is now conducted at an industrial scale when servers as alleged can now be manipulated. What is most disturbing is that despite the worrisome indictment of the parties and the candidates, no one among the politicians has raised the moral issues that should attend the conduct of the political contests. It is as if the politicians have all agreed that some criminality is acceptable in our conduct of our political affairs and the citizens seem to be acquiescing to this state of affairs. There is total lack of trust in the so-called democratic business of the nation.
That brings us to the issue of leadership. Most people would emphasize such characteristics as intelligence, courage, determination and vision. These are necessary but insufficient for the outstanding leadership to emerge.
Although a certain degree of analytical and technical skills is a minimum requirement for success, studies have shown that emotional intelligence which includes compassion may be the key attribute that distinguishes outstanding leaders from those who are merely adequate. Such examples as Mahathir of Malaysia, Lee Kwuan yu of Singapore, Mandela of South Africa and Clinton of the United States illustrates the essential typology. Nigeria has not been fortunate in our choice of leadership.
The most disturbing aspect of the situation is that we are on the verge of a possible question of illegitimacy on the part of the current government. Let me explain. INEC had announced that they registered more than 93 million Nigerians to vote. In the event less than 30% of voters actually did cast their votes of which less than one third voted for the eventual candidate INEC declared winner. The declared winner scored 8.9 million votes, the second candidate scored 6.9 million votes, the third candidate scored 6.1 million and the fourth candidate scored nearly 1.5 million votes. In other words, more than two thirds of those who voted (the majority) did not vote for the declared winner. So, the results indicate that the majority nearly twice the number that voted for the declared winner voted against the declared ‘winning’ candidate. This raises the question whether in a democracy it is legitimate to have the minority of voters to foist their choice on the majority. So, many questions. No wonder the voters are confused and do not know who to trust. But what is clear is that in a democratic election the winning candidate should at least score 50% of the votes cast. As we await the verdict of the Judiciary it is evident that we have arrived at a historic juncture in our nation. Whatever may develop in the next few weeks it seems evident that we are at that momentous inflection point in our nation’s history when, against reason, the real change that Nigerians expect may descend on us suddenly despite all the omens that we are at the point of implosion.
- Prof Anya O. Anya, past President, Nigerian Academy of Science; past Chairman, Governing Board, Nigerian National Merit Award (NNMA); past Pro-Chancellor, Michael Okpara University Of Agriculture Umudike (MOAU); Chairman Governing Board, Nigeria Prize For Leadership, And Chairman, Tetfund Research & Development Committee (RDSC), presented this keynote address in honour oF PROFESSOR A.O.E. ANIMALU, FAS, NNOM, at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka on August 31, 2023