Russia’s war with Ukraine may hamper food exports to Nigeria
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Russia exported fish worth $253.6 million to Nigeria in 2000. In the first quarter ended March 2021 (Q1 2021), Russia alone exported N27.23 billion worth of blue whiting to Nigeria, which, ironically, is the biggest producer of fish in Africa.
Russia is the leading exporter of fish to Nigeria among nine major suppliers from Europe, South America, and North Africa who shipped in about N500 billion worth of the delicacy in the 11 months to November 2021 (11M 2021).
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows that Nigeria imported goods valued at N813.19 billion ($2 billion) or 3.7 per cent of total imports in 9M 2021.
Therefore, trade between Nigeria and Russia worth more than $2 billion is at risk in the unprovoked war Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched against Ukraine on 24 February, with Putin escalating the bloodshed daily by sending in more troops.
Nigeria, a vast fertile land which imports food, also stands the risk of food shortage as well as food inflation.
Russia is a big player in the global economy; one of the largest exporters of crude oil, natural gas, and agricultural produce.
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Imports from Russia
Although refined petrol products account for most of Nigeria’s import bill, a major item is durum wheat imported mostly from Russia.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data shows that wheat is the third most widely consumed grain in the country, per reporting by Nairametrics.
Nigeria imported durum wheat worth over N128.1 billion in 9M 2021 and N144.14 billion in 9M 2020.
Different types of frozen seafoods are imported from Russia yearly, which include mackerel, meat, herrings, blue whitings, and other fish.
Nigeria also imported vaccines for human medicine from Russia in Q4 2020.
Trade with Ukraine
Ukraine exported milk preparation to Nigeria worth N721.45 million in Q1 2021, NBS figures show.
United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade reported by TRADING ECONOMICS shows the following:
Exports to Russia
Nigerian exports to Russia amounted to $2.36 million in 2020. Items exported included:
- Live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers – $715.43K
- Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruits – $590.69K
- Edible fruits, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons – $382.89K
- Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatics invertebrates – $263.97K
- Tobacco and manufactures tobacco substitutes – $113.58K
- Cocoa and cocoa preparations – $106.29K
- Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement – $87.11K
- Coffee, tea, mate and spices – $60.08K
Imports from Ukraine
Nigerian imports from Ukraine were worth $156.08 million in 2020. Goods imported included:
- Iron and steel – $52.89 million
- Articles of iron or steel – $4.92 million
- Sugars and sugar confectionery – $3.02 million
- Miscellaneous edible preparations – $2.12 million
- Dairy products, eggs, honey, edible products – $2.00 million
- Beverages, spirits and vinegar – $1.36 million
Exports to Ukraine
Nigerian exports to Ukraine amounted to $647.13 thousand in 2020. Items exported included:
- Plastics – $213.86K
- Edible fruits, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons – $158.63K
- Rubbers – $140.73K
- Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruits – $65.58K
- Miscellaneous chemical products – $32.23K
- Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products – $19.36K
- Live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers – $16.04K
Impact on Nigeria
Nigeria consumes between five and six million metric tonnes of wheat products yearly but only 1 per cent is produced locally. The balance 99 per cent is imported.
The demand-supply gap necessitates spending over $2 billion on wheat importation yearly, the second highest food import bill.
If supply from Russia is distorted Nigeria could face further rises in wheat price and that will also increase the price of wheat by-products such as bread, wheat meal, cake, among others.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine could force Nigeria to expand local wheat production. But loans disbursed to farmers by the CBN are yet to translate to greater food production.