Tinubu is facing the Gordian-knot challenge of picking a running mate who would add to, rather than subtract from, the combined value of the APC presidential ticket.
By Ichie Tiko Okoye
It was a rout that only very few believed could happen in view of the many acts of humiliation and daunting obstacles the national leadership of his own party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) – of which he was a top gun – had serially strewn in his path. And it was especially difficult for someone like me to understand why, like rats deserting a purported sinking ship, many in his political dynasty who had experienced both good and bad times with him in his political odyssey failed to boldly equip themselves to the last stand, if necessary, like King Leonidas and his 300 Spartan warriors who opted to commit hara-kiri at the Battle of Thermopylae, while defending the pass from the invading Persian army, and entered myth for their uncommon loyalty and heroic acts.
Tinubu faced very turbulent times right after the All Progressives Congress (APC) party he was very instrumental in birthing took over the reins of power in 2015. Not only did his plan to achieve his burning ambition to be president from the vantage position of an incumbent vice-president become stone dead at the last-minute, as opposition to an ‘imprudent’ Muslim-Muslim combination snowballed among the party hierarchy, his nominees for the leadership of the National Assembly were equally brusquely pushed aside, leading to the unprecedented scenario of a majority party sharing the key leadership positions in the national legislature with the majority party.
To cap it all, credible sources disclosed that members of a very powerful cabal within the Presidential Villa who had Tinubu in their cross hairs were determined to force him into early retirement. While many commentators were urging Tinubu to jump ship on account of the serial indignities being shovelled on him by the leadership of his – with probable support from the highest quarters – I canvassed otherwise. I urged him to keep his eye on the ball and absorb the humiliation and scorn like a sponge.
The most important thing – as I wrote in one of my pieces – was for him to find a way to maintain friendly a relationship with Buhari given his still cult-like following in large swathes of the North. And his endurance and patience seem to have finally yielded bountiful dividends as against all odds and threats Tinubu scored a landslide victory that has continued to surprise and perplex his supporters and traducers alike.
“Politics,” posited British Prime Minister and statesman Sir Winston Churchill, “are almost as exciting as war, and quite as dangerous. In war, you can only be killed once, but in politics many times.” Tinubu is a battle-scarred politician with more than the proverbial seven lives of a cat. He embodies the metaphor of the 34th US President Gen. Dwight Eisenhower when he poignantly declared that ”What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight, but rather the size of the fight in the dog.” Right from when Tinubu burst on the Nigerian political scene like a meteor in the Second Republic up till now, no one can doubt the size of the fight in him!
But Tinubu is now facing the Gordian-knot challenge of picking a running mate who would add to, rather than subtract from, the combined value of the APC presidential ticket. And there has been no shortage of suggestions and threats, particularly on the likelihood of a Muslim/Muslim ticket. Like it did during the run-up to the 1993 presidential election, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) has already come out to declare war on a “one-sided” ticket.
On its part, the Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC) has expectedly countered that there isn’t anything wrong with such a ticket as ‘competence’ and ‘merit’ should be the yardsticks for picking a running mate. But MURIC’s contention should be readily dismissed on the grounds that the Muslim organisation would’ve been threatening fire and brimstone for the same concern for inclusiveness and societal balancing that CAN is raising if a Christian/Christian ticket was being mooted.
The strident voices of opposition to a Muslim/Muslim ticket should be expected. Given how Nigeria is highly culturally and religiously diversified, a presidential ticket monopolised by people from the same region or creed is deemed to be a non-brainer given its potential to fuel more division and angst within the polity. Interestingly enough, the records are mixed. After many failed attempts to forge a formidable partnership with Northern Progressives, Chief Obafemi Awolowo practically said “To Hell” and turned to the East. His choice of running mate was the cerebral Chief Phillip Umeadi (SAN). But the first ever South/South ticket was an abysmal failure. On the other hand, the first ever ticket with people from the same religion – the MKO/Kingibe combo – was a raving success.
Asiwaju should do well to remember that in 1993, Northern traditional rulers led by the Sultan of Sokoto, along with prominent political figures, intensely pressurised IBB and his “men” to stop the election on the basis that the election of MKO – who they confessed to liking as a person and who was a fellow Muslim that has invested immensely in furtherance of Northern political and religious interests – would enable the Yoruba to undo the many years of Sardauna’s achievements for the North and reverse the gains recorded since 1960.
Experience has shown that the core North will never permit a situation where their interests won’t be ‘properly’ represented by the No.1 or No.2 man in the central government, meaning that it can never accept the idea that its interests can be appropriately protected by a Northern minority Christian. Anyone looking for additional supporting evidence should simply take cognisance of the high drama that attended Jonathan succeeding Umaru Yar’Adua who died in office and Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa who succeeded Namadi Sambo who became Jonathan’s deputy.
A sage was once quoted as saying that there’s no morality in politics. A corollary to that is the observation made by French playwright and screen writer Jean Anouilh to the effect that “The only immorality (in any human endeavour) is to not do what one has to do when one has to do it.” To any rational contestant in an election, winning isn’t everything, it is the only thing” (a slight retouching of the quote attributed to one of the most successful coaches if not the most successful – in American football and immortal manager of the Green Bay Packers, Vince Lombardi).
“Too many moralists,” canvassed American writer Clarence Day, “begin with a dislike of reality.” Not this writer; I’ve always been a realist and pragmatist. APC’s dilemma would’ve best resolved itself if the party’s presidential flagbearer, Tinubu, is a Christian. But he isn’t. If he, therefore, desires to triumph in next year’s election – and I’m fully persuaded that he does – it then becomes imperative for him to find a way to appease the Northern Muslim majority, particularly with someone like Atiku in the race.
Going by past voting patterns and present-day grumblings, the Southern Christian majority are most unlikely to vote for Tinubu, even if he makes the Catholic Pope or the Anglican Archbishop of Canterbury or any of the fathers of the faith in Nigeria – assuming any would even dare to oblige him – his running mate. It is what it is. It is very critical that Tinubu adopts the same winning coalition that delivered victory to the APC in 2015 and 2019.
All things considered, Tinubu’s goose would be cooked, roasted and burnt black if he fails to nominate a Muslim running mate due to the reasons I’ve already advanced. We must also note that Tinubu has never believed that a joint Muslim/Muslim or Christian/Christian presidential ticket cannot sail in Nigeria. His stance has always been that Nigerians are chiefly interested in good governance that would enhance their welfare and status no matter what religion such performing leaders practice.
As someone who lost his opportunity to be Buhari’s running mate in 2015, on account of strong opposition of such a Muslim/Muslim ticket, Tinubu now has the perfect opporunity to put his money where his mouth and heart are, and validate his own belief. What remains for him to do is to assuage the feelings of the South-East in very practical ways for the injustice Ndigbo believe has been their lot, particularly in the hands of the PDP. But given the eerie parallels between the geo-ethnic factors and major characters of the 1993 saga, Tinubu is well advised to equally ‘Beware the Ides of March’!