Report shows insecurity rising as a result of “failure of security strategy”
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Terrorists have killed 1,545 Nigerians this year, with 971 others abducted in October alone, raising the spectre of escalation as a new terror gang called “Lakurawa” has crossed the border to Sokoto and Nasarawa to operate in the North West, according to a new security report.
The “October 2024 Nigeria Security Report” by Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited (BSIL), a security risk management and intelligence consulting firm, cited a deterioration of security metrics of incidents, abductions and fatalities, and warned that the rising numbers suggest 2024 is likely to be the worst year in security performance in a decade.
It said October was marked mainly by developments associated with violent activities, including killings and kidnapping for ransom by non-state armed groups (NSAGs), criminal gangs, cult groups, and armed ethnic militias, as well as social unrest in form of protests and labour action triggered by economic hardship and political activities.
BSIL quoted data that shows Nigeria recorded
- 51 per cent rise in fatalities.
- 24.42 per cent increase in abductions.
- 861 security incidents – 559 (64.92 per cent) security threats, 215 (24.79 per cent), security forces operations, and 43 (4.99 per cent) safety incidents from October 1 to31, 2024.
- October saw 1,545 fatalities – 67.70 per cent civilian deaths, 25.89 per cent criminals/non-state armed groups (NSAGs), and 6.40 per cent security forces, and 971 individuals abducted.
Distribution by zone
Both the North East and North West were the most affected by insecurity, accounting for 52.03 per cent of total incidents, the South East reported the fewest at 7.78 per cent, the report said.
“The number of individuals abducted increased from 807 in September 2024 to 971 in October 2024, marking a 20.32% increase and a shift from the 11.03% decline recorded in September 2024,” it explained.
“The North West was the hardest hit, with 83.83% of all abductions occurring in this region, while the South West region experienced the least number of abductions with 0.21%.
“Of the total number of abducted individuals, Northern Nigeria accounted for 954 (98.25%), while Southern Nigeria accounted for 17 (1.75%).”
BASIL also disclosed that
The number of individuals killed increased from 1,022 in September 2024 to 1,545 in October 2024, an increase of 51.17 per cent.
Variations for the North West (37.93 per cent) and North Central (28.16 per cent) had the highest numbers cumulatively, accounting for 66.09 per cent of total fatalities.
The South South had the lowest fatality rate, at 3.56 per cent.
The North garnered 1,283 (83.04 per cent), the South 262 (16.96 per cent).
Triggers and drivers in insecurity
BASIL Chief Executive Officer Kabir Adamu reiterated that Nigeria has a weak and ineffective security management system, which is why it has not been able to address the root causes and manifestations of insecurity.
His words: “We just published our October report. What it says is that the situation has really deteriorated, and we are a bit alarmed with the rate of deterioration.
“If it continues at this rate, perhaps what we are likely to get is more fatalities in Nigeria in the next 10 months, if this trajectory that we are seeing continues.
“There are three reasons driving insecurity. The socio-economic factor, the cost of living crisis that we are experiencing and other socioe-conomic issues.
“Then the political issue, for instance, the off-cycle election, and the outcome of the 2023 election.
“For the fact that some people felt aggrieved they didn’t get the justice they deserved and now kind of sabotaging the government as it were.
“The last one is the environmental factor; the climate change issue that is causing both internal and external factors in the movement of transhuman, herders, and geopolitics in the Sahel region. Such are responsible for the rise in insecurity.
“Of course, for the fact we don’t have a security management system in place to address these factors, both the drivers and the triggers, as well as the root causes are also other factors.
“We have a very weak and ineffective security management system that has not been able to address the root causes and manifestation of insecurity in the country.
“Our criminal justice system is ineffective that people feel that when they complain or take their case, especially to the law enforcement, they are not heard. A significant number of those people will rather pick guns to get their pound of flesh.
Failure of security strategy
“It’s a failure of our security strategy. We have at least three laws in the country that are meant to prevent terrorism. Number one is the National Counter-Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST) that was passed in 2016. Policy Framework and National Action Plan for Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) launched in 2017.
“Another one is Terrorism Preventing and Prohibition Act (2022) – NCTC, which was amended in 2022. If you read them, there are at least five elements: to forestall, to secure, to identify, to prevent, and then to implement.
“First we would have to address current challenges in terrorism that we have. And more importantly, we would have prevented new ones from emerging.
“Under these five elements that I mentioned, they include securing our borders, they include forming a partnership with our neighbouring countries like Niger, Chad, Benin Republic, Cameroon. Because we did not implement it, most Nigerians are not even aware of the existence of these documents.
“Government has failed in buying the minds of Nigerians to the extent that Nigerians would be supportive of these three documents.
“And when you have a terrorism challenge, remember that in terrorism there are three elements. We have the government, audience (Nigerians) and the perpetrators.
“Both the perpetrators and the government are speaking to the audience, where the government fails to get influence over the audience, then the perpetrators will get influence over the audience.
“Because we haven’t communicated in a strategic manner the content of these three documents, to the extent that the market woman in the place where these Lakurawa emerged does not even know which number to call or whom to approach if she sees a member of Lakurawa. That’s the failure of governance.”
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