Putin would ultimately realise that his miscalculations caused him to bite more than he can realistically chew and swallow
By Tiko Okoye
Vladimir Putin, a modern-day Russian czar, drifted into a midday trance in his gilded palatial office in the Kremlin and envisioned military victories greater than those of Alexander the Great, Attila the Hun, Augusto Caesar, Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler put together. He dreamt of legacy conquests, of restoring a disembowelled Humpty-Dumpty empire and several victory parades welcoming him as ‘the people’s liberator.’ Just then, he started smiling. By the time he woke up, he could hear the excited and triumphant beating of his own heart!
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has all the trappings of a blitzkrieg and a pincer attack. The former is a military tactic intended to bring about a swift victory by inducing a dispiriting psychological “awe and shock” experience through the employment of surprise, speed and superiority in troop size or materiel or fire power.
The pincer attack involves two Russian military columns sweeping down from the north (Donbas) and up from the south (Crimea) to link up with their counterparts from Belarus, with the sole objective of capturing large swathes of Ukrainian territory and laying a vice-like siege on the capital, Kyiv to facilitate a regime change.
But Putin is said to be very surprised by the resilience and defiance of the Ukranian leadership, troops and civilian population.
Still, my candid advice to the Ukrainians is not to give too much away so early in the day. Allow the Russians to effect a regime change? No way! But they could’ve lulled them into developing a false sense of invincibility before launching guerilla-style attacks on several fronts aimed at hitting them when they are least prepared and when maximum damage would be done.
As I am writing this piece, international media organisations are reporting a huge military convoy 3 – 5 miles long north-west of Kyiv, which is expected to reach the precinct of the city by the time this piece is published tomorrow (Wednesday).
There is only one set of ways to effectively beat the speed and ferocity embedded in a blitzkrieg of this nature. First, the Ukrainian troops must reduce direct, frontal assaults on the Russian invaders to the barest minimum. This is to prevent heavy combat losses that would leave them with a rapidly diminishing pool of able-bodied young men from which to draw for future combats.
The Ukrainians should rather intensify the use of anti-tank missiles, anti-personnel mines and drones, as well as put the invading troops on the back foot by disrupting the supply lines restocking front lines with fuel and reinforcements.
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We know only too well how the most powerful nations only wax lyrical on morality when it suits them and abandon it when it doesn’t. “Do as I say but not as I do,” has long become an accepted convention in international relations. Honestly speaking, the Western world coalesces to confront any perceived “evil” only when it threatens their existence or their interests.
That explains why many commentators are criticizing the USA for forcing the Soviets to remove the missile they sited in nearby Cuba during the 1961 Cuban missile crisis but hypocritically refusing to recognize Russia’s genuine security concerns over the proximity of a pro-NATO Ukraine.
But therein lies the crux of the matter. If there’s one thing Putin has so far achieved, it is getting most of us to swallow his propaganda hook, line and sinker. Comparing Cuba with Ukraine is like comparing apples with oranges. #FactCheck No.1: Ukraine is not a NATO member. #FactCheck No.2: Ukraine has not formally applied before now for NATO membership. #FactCheck No.3: There’s no American or NATO military base in Ukraine. “That might be correct,” I’ve heard many counter, “But since prevention is better than cure, Russia can justifiably act to nip a potential danger in the bud.”
Truth be said, rushing in to ‘pre-empt’ the likelihood of Ukraine becoming a NATO member at “a future date” is just a ruse used by Putin towards achieving other bigger objectives. The first question that arises is: If Russia invaded Ukraine to pre-empt a likely future membership, what would it do when confronted at its boundary by a country that is already a full-blown NATO member, as is now the case with Poland?
Putin’s twin objectives are to restore the glory of the old Soviet empire and to make NATO weak, ineffective and irrelevant in Europe. Left to Putin alone, every former member-state of the defunct USSR is fair game.
I am fully persuaded that Putin’s initial mission in amassing troops and materiel in Belarus and eastern Ukraine was principally to fly a kite as a way of testing the resolve and unity of NATO member-nations. But then came mission creep as he became a victim of his own chicanery. His ultimate decision to invade was driven partly by the need to whet the appetite of his domestic audience but mainly by the discordant voices at NATO Headquarters in Brussels where France, Germany, Hungary and Italy were viscerally opposing some of the measures being proposed as sanctions. Sensing blood, Putin moved in for the kill!
But to Putin’s complete and utter shock, the invasion became a rallying cry for European unity! The countries that had appeared willing to give Putin just a rap over the knuckles adopted a very hard line stance overnight. The most surprising of them is Germany. Its government miraculously grew the liver to stop further certification of the nearly-completed gigantic Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline originating from Russia. Germany also announced that henceforth it would start sending armaments to Ukraine (what it has never done since 1945), and equally committed 2% of its GDP on defence spending.
For decades, successive American administrations have tried without success to pressurize the largest economy in Europe to play a big-brother role in boosting the military capability of NATO in responding to any Russian aggression – and Putin unintentionally made it happen with a single action!
Russia is on the brink of a financial meltdown as unprecedented sanctions slam its economy. Long queues have formed in front of beleaguered banks, with the real possibility of deposit runs. The national currency, the rouble, has depreciated more than 40 percent against the US dollar and the Central Bank of Russia has raised the base interest rate from 9 to 20 percent, with hyper-inflation looming on the horizon.
Russian oligarchs are equally taking the brunt of sanctions, as they reportedly suffered a diminution in their net worth by nearly $40 billion! World sporting bodies are also barring Russian athletes and players from participating in global tournaments. And the ensuing damage is bound to worsen and widen with time. Surely, all bets are on the table, considering that it would be clearly disconcerting for European nations to resume normal relations with Russia while Putin still remains in charge.
Putin is now puffing and huffing like a caged animal. His utterances and mannerisms make it obvious that he has completely lost touch with reality, and give new meaning to English dramatist and poet John Dryden’s postulation that “There is a pleasure sure in being mad which none but madmen know.” He has since ordered his military commanders to place Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert because America and NATO were making “aggressive statements” about Russia!
Luckily for the rest of the world, Russia isn’t the only country with nuclear capability – but this represents no more than a minuscule comfort. In the end, Putin would ultimately realise that his miscalculations caused him to bite more than he can realistically chew and swallow, and that, as American poet and philosopher Ralph Emerson ruefully averred: “Every hero becomes a bore in the end.”
Peradventure, Putin ends up seeing nothing but opprobrium and humiliation awaiting him, he should leave the nuclear button well alone. He should simply commit suicide, just like Hitler did after he lost WWII, and hopefully leave Europe and the rest of the world to pick up the threads interrupted by his delusions of grandeur.