Unlike Atiku and Tinubu, what Peter Obi offers is “aspirational optimism,” the kind that Nigerian voters like to hear. He responds to criticisms the few times that he does very obliquely, never by name and only with carefully manicured phrases. He is smart and talented.
By Nnanna Ijomah
“It will take a miracle for labour to win”. Those were the words of Atiku Abubakar, the PDP Presidential candidate during an Arise Television interview not too long ago. “They will labour in vain” were the words of Bola Tinubu. “Nigerians are not going to vote for someone they cannot trust” was Dino Melaye’s recent retort, tongue in cheek in referencing a distrust of the Igbos and the Biafran war. Listening to former Senator Dino Melaye and reading the recent piece by Sam Omatseye, both spokespersons and sycophants for the Atiku and Tinubu campaigns in recent times one is inclined to doubt the Biafran war ended 52 years ago.
It is very unfortunate and reprehensible that the campaigns of both Atiku and Tinubu having failed miserably to promote any virtues or attributes of their principals are doing their utmost to raise the ghost of the civil war and by extension attempt to link Peter Obi to the IPOB hence he is a man who cannot be trusted just like his Igbo tribe. These insinuations are not only reprehensible but should be rejected by Nigerians. You cannot claim that your candidate is going to unite the country yet engage in such obvious divisive antics.
It is absolutely safe to say the path to the Presidency and Aso Rock is not going to be easy for any one candidate considering our ethno-religious fault lines, biases and loyalties. For decades now, Nigerians have continued to see each other as the enemy most often precipitated and encouraged by opportunistic politicians like Atiku and Tinubu who see hatred and ethnic suspicions as their ticket to power. This was the crux of Sam Omatseye’s recent piece on behalf of his employer, Tinubu titled Obi-tuary.
It is ironic that the same people who are scaring folks about a Peter Obi administration being dominated by Igbos, (no truth to the insinuation) don’t seem to have any problem with Buhari having done exactly that. It is therefore not surprising to read about a recent tweet by Ahmed Datti shared on social media stating that he was called by his Muslim community and asked to reject Peter Obi’s VP candidacy or face serious consequences from all Muslims in the North. To the extent that this is true, it clearly epitomizes the deepened nature of our ethnic and religious differences.
It’s really unfortunate that at this stage of our national development, ethnic and religious considerations still determine our voting choices. While acknowledging this reality the question arises, what are the chances of Peter Obi in the coming election? From all indications and based on past voting patterns a significant majority of the Igbo, Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani will vote for Peter Obi, Tinubu and Atiku/Kwankwaso in that order, which brings us to the minority tribes and how they will vote.
So far there is a preponderance of evidence that the peoples of the South East and South South will give Peter Obi a majority of their votes. There is absolutely no doubt that considering the demographic makeup of the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos, Peter Obi will be competitive in both. It is also a given and if past voting patterns hold true that Tinubu may win a majority of the votes in some but not all the South Western states. The core North in this election is shaping up to be one zone where no one party seems to command a clear dominance with each candidate getting a share of the votes depending on the strength of their candidacy, religious and party loyalties.
Judging from history and in the absence of a towering Northern candidate with the stature of a Buhari as was evidenced in past elections, one will want to believe that the APC, PDP, NNPP and Labor will all garner varying levels of support and votes from both the North East and North Western states. It may turn out to be a surprise how well Tinubu may do in the North not solely because of his Muslim faith or Buhari’s APC imprimatur but rather because some may believe and rightly so that he will be simply a placeholder for Shettima, in which case his victory will be seen as the surest way of returning power to the North.
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A possibility not dissimilar to what happened during the late Yar Ardua presidency. From all indications the NNPP and kwankwanso seem to have lost their overwhelming dominance in Kano, the second largest voting state after Lagos which is not to say he cannot be a spoiler in other northern states. From all indications, every vote for Kwankwaso is a vote that could have gone to Atiku. However, more telling on how the core Northern states of the North East and North West will vote will be to listen to their Imams during their Friday Mosque services and what is broadcast on radio because it is from these two sources their low information voters get their voting instructions and marching orders.
That leaves us with the North Central states that are not part of the core Muslim North. These are states with significant Christian populations whose voters might be inclined to vote for Peter Obi. The truth is that Tinubu’s choice of a Muslim running mate will invariably cause northern Christians to re-examine their voting choices, hence the mistake most Nigerians and the political talking heads have always made is the assumption that the north is monolithic in its culture, language and religion. Couple this with what former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose recently identified as Obi’s secret weapon, which is the fact that since the Igbos constitute the second largest voting bloc in every state of the Federation after the indigenes, it is not inconceivable that their support for any candidate can provide that candidate with 25 per cent of the votes he or she needs in all the states of the federation. So if I were to advise the Obi campaign, it would be to urge his supporters in the North and South West of Igbo descent to vote where they reside and not travel to vote elsewhere.
To Peter Obi’s advantage again is the close to 10 million new voters, mostly young people from all tribes, religion and background who have registered to vote in the 2023 elections. Politics and elections being a game of numbers, Peter Obi will need a majority of these young new voters irrespective of tribe and party affiliations to vote for him and there are indications that they will if the social media craze associated with his campaign is anything to go by.
It is very telling that in 2019, only 27 million Nigerians voted in that year’s presidential election out of 90 million registered voters. That was a drop from the 2015 numbers. Considering the degree of public awareness and motivation generated by this coming election, it is not inconceivable that 50 million Nigerians will vote in this election which augurs well for Obi when one considers the fact that a majority of the new registrants for PVC are young people, supposedly his support base.
It is the hope and expectation that voters in the South Western states would consider the consequences to the country of another APC administration from voting for Tinubu out of ethnic loyalty. It is a fact that the 611,777 vote difference in 2015 in favour of Buhari made his presidency possible and we’ve all been the worst for it. Yes, a majority of South East voters may vote for Peter Obi, but they will be doing so because they consider him the best candidate and the most capable of uniting and turning around the fortunes of the country. The same cannot be said of Tinubu. As I mentioned in another write up, substitute Peter Obi with Okorocha, Orji Uzo kalu, Gov Ikpeazu or Umahi and the South Eastern votes will not go to any of them because he is Igbo. It is time for a handshake across the Niger by both groups. With the endorsement of Peter Obi by the leadership of Afenifere, the pioneer Yoruba social and political organization, there is the expectation that he will do well in the South West.
Politics is a game of expectations as much as it is a game of numbers. Judging from increasing political awareness and “buyers’ remorse” from the election of Buhari in 2015, it is my expectation that Nigerians will upend all traditional assumptions about voting habits and scramble longstanding ethnic, religious and political coalitions in highly unpredictable ways. It is my belief that Peter Obi does not actually need to carry all the South Western states to win. All he needs to do is to win a couple, beat Atiku to a third place and do a little better than Jonathan did in the region in 2015 when Jonathan got 1.8 million votes, 611,777 less than Buhari who got 2.4 million votes; carry the South East, South South and North Central states not excluding 25 per cent of the votes in some of the core Northern states and he will be on his way to Aso Rock.
The very question of party loyalty in 2023 is expected to be fluid with broad swaths of the population channeling their frustrations over depressing economic and security issues against the party in power and its candidate. This election must be a referendum on the APC as well as the corrupt antecedents of both Atiku and Tinubu, two men whom social and political activist, Mr. Dele Farotimi, aptly described as “twin horsemen of the apocalypse, both with the same identity kit, both criminal in nature and intent, both with public records of extreme avarice and stealing.”
Unlike Atiku and Tinubu, what Peter Obi offers is “aspirational optimism,” the kind that Nigerian voters like to hear. He responds to criticisms the few times that he does very obliquely, never by name and only with carefully manicured phrases. He is smart and talented. Yes, he is an individual of ambition but unmoored to ethnic and religious sensibilities no matter how often the Atiku and Tinubu campaigns try to link him with IPOB or Christian pastors.
He leads instead of following. He is not a man who shifts his persona, change his beliefs or lie to advance his immediate political self-interest. He has a commitment to ethical conduct, a devotion to the common good and a fidelity to truth that has endeared him to millions of Nigerians. He is not a Christian candidate or an Igbo presidential aspirant; rather he is a Nigerian presidential candidate who happens to be an Igbo man and a Christian, the same way both Atiku and Tinubu are Nigerians who happen to be Muslims of Fulani and Yoruba ancestry.
Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, as loquacious and garrulous as he may be, said something recently that profoundly registered with me. He said and I quote, “leadership is not about party, it is about individuals. Party is only a vehicle to actualize your ambition, to be able to say to your people, ‘I have the capacity, I have this quality to render services to you.”
That’s who Peter Obi is, a candidate who has the leadership qualities to rescue this country but who happens to be showcasing these qualities and capacity under the banner of the Labour Party. There are some political pundits who believe that the 2023 presidential elections will be inconclusive with none of the candidates getting the required voting percentages and commanding majority. If that happens I expect Peter Obi to be the top vote gainer poised also to win a runoff. God willing, that may not be necessary.
- Dr. Nnanna Ijomah, former Personal Assistant to late Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu, wrote in from the U.S. He can be reached via: nna2ijomah@aol.com