This weekend governorship election across the federation marks a watershed in the political life of the South West zone of the country. The assertion becomes apropos, in the view of the landmark victory of the All Progressives Party (APC) flag bearer in the March 28, 2015 Presidential Election Major General Muhammadu Buhari. The victory presupposes unprecedented paradigm shift from the political equation of Nigeria, where the people of southwest have always been in opposition at the Federal since independence with its collateral impairment to the fortunes of the region.
The incumbent, Abiola Ajimobi of the APC and a former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin will lock horns for the right to occupy the government house, Agodi, Ibadan as the governor of Oyo State.
Six contenders are squaring up for the top job in Oyo State. Except for Folarin, who is the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Seyi Makinde, who is the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), any of the other three that wins the election will be breaking the second term jinx in the state. They are the incumbent, Abiola Ajimobi of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Rashidi Ladoja of Accord and Adebayo Alao-Akala of Labour Party (LP). All three men have held the governorship position of the state.
Since the Second Republic, no governor has been re-elected in the state. All attempts by previous chief executives to get a second term have been futile. Hence, it has become a popular saying that no governor gets a second term in Oyo State. Judging by the results of the National Assembly election on March 28, none of Ladoja and Alao-Akala can be easily wished away in the race to take Ajimobi’s job, meaning that the jinx is about to be broken on April 11 by one of them.
The National Assembly election naturally puts the APC far ahead of others as it produced the three senators and 12 out of the 14 House of Representative members in the state.
Though they were beaten, Ladoja and Alao-Akala look undefeated by the bravery they have been displaying since then. But can either of them or Folarin spring a surprise?
Ajimobi, who stood on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), polled 420,852 votes to dislodge the then incumbent, Alao-Akala, who scored 387,132 votes. The latter contested under the platform of the PDP. Ladoja scored 275,773 to come third in the election.
The administration of the then sitting governor Alao-Akala, was associated with thuggery and violence. It was also seen as a profligate government which undertook so many projects that were poorly executed due to lack of commitment to quality and alleged collection of kickbacks by key functionaries of the administration.
The crisis that rocked his party, the PDP, also grew sharply during his tenure so much so that many of the party stalwarts, particularly in Ibadan zone, worked against his re-election.
Besides, the wave of change represented by the then ACN, was blowing through Ekiti and Osun states which had their PDP governors removed by the Court of Appeal for ACN governors.
But Alao-Akala was generous to people around him, a factor that helped him retain so many people who patronized political power and its privileges.
In the growing discontent against Alao-Akala’s government, Ladoja, who was his predecessor, began to make wave again, rendering the political turf more complex with his defection from PDP to Accord and speedy growth of the party before the April 26, 2011 governorship election.
But the wave of change in the region and Ajimobi’s personal popularity combined to earn him the victory in the election, defeating his closest challenger, Alao-Akala, with 33,720 votes. To earn the victory, Ajimobi defeated Akala in Ibadan and Oyo zones with a wide margin and also gave him a very close marking in Oke-Ogun area where he polled 96,667 to Akala’s 97,398. Ladoja occupied a distant third position with his 275,773 votes. As tough as it was, Ajimobi dislodged the then incumbent governor whose party was also controlling the Federal Government.
With this result, however, the three parties produced seven, 13 and 12 members in the state’s House of Assembly respectively to operate as a strong party each. They also produced members of both houses of the National Assembly except Accord which did not produce a senator. But it went to the March 28, 2015 election with one senator, Olufemi Lanlehin, who defected from the ACN.
Yet, the dynamics have changed within the last four years. Because human beings and the society are not static, politicians have criss-crossed the parties to find better comfort and advantage in realizing their personal ambition. New issues and developments have also reshaped the polity to alter voting patterns and interest that determine voters’ choice.
It is, therefore, no surprise that in the March 28 presidential and National Assembly elections, the APC produced the three senators from zero level, and also produced 12 out of the 14 members of the House of Representatives.
The APC won the three senatorial seats. Results of the senatorial election may not be fully suitable for this zonal analysis. However, the results are given below for a better insight.
Aside keeping its lead in its traditional zones of Ibadan and Oyo, the APC has gained more popularity in Oke-Ogun and Ibarapa zones where Alao-Akala came tops four years ago.
The party did not only gain an inroad into Oke-Ogun and Ibarapa, its popularity has increased in Ogbomoso, Alao-Akala’s home town.
The APC chairman in the state, Chief Akin Oke, attributed the gains to what he described as the unprecedented performance of Governor Abiola Ajimobi in the last four years across the state. Oke emphasized that the governor succeeded in touching all the five zones with unique projects that meet their needs and generally improved the standard of living of residents in the areas. For instance, the politician cited dualization of roads in Ibadan, Oyo, Ogbomoso and Iseyin (Oke-Ogun) as one of such projects.
But Accord did not agree with him. The Director General of the Rashidi Ladoja Campaign Organization, Hon. Adeolu Adeleke, described the result of the election as sham, saying it was rigged in favour of the APC.
The Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Mr Kehinde Salawu, also attributed APC’s victory in the election to the overwhelming popularity of Buhari. He said the governorship election would be different.
Alao-Akala also attributed APC’s performance in the March 28 election to the popularity of its presidential candidate, Gen. Buhari (rtd).
Speaking through his spokesman, Oludare Ogunlana, the former governor said that most voters are illiterate who could not differentiate between presidential and National Assembly elections.
Interestingly all the major parties are approaching the governorship election with confidence. They largely believe that the tide will turn in their favour; hence, they have stepped up personal campaigns.
The PDP candidate, Teslim Folarin, asserted that voters would choose him because the party had educated its supporters to vote only for the PDP this time. He spoke through the State Publicity Secretary, Kehinde Salawu.
He said: “we have educated our people to vote right this time because governorship election is crucial in any state. That is the governorship that is closer to the people. And we believe we will do wonderfully well on Saturday.” He said
The LP candidate, Alao-Akala, also insisted that he would gain people’s votes across the state to return as the next governor because, according to him, people of Oyo State are tired of the Ajimobi administration.
But APC chairman, Chief Oke, said it is very clear that voters are very pleased with the transformation, restoration and the repositioning agenda of the Ajimobi administration as shown in the results of the last election.
Never in the history of the Yoruba has its party of choice won at the federal level. Oyo State was among the states that rejected PDP’s president Goodluck Jonathan. Buhari polled 528,620 votes to defeat Jonathan who scored 303,376 votes, leaving him with a deficit of 225,244 votes.
The APC’s victory at the centre will play a key role in putting Ajimobi ahead of other candidates because a lot of voters would reason that the state deserves to enjoy the privileges of having the progressive party controlling the centre.
Besides, Oyo State has always been home to the progressives’ party. Except in 2003 and 2007 when it is generally believed that the PDP rigged massively to take over Southwest states, Oyo has always been controlled by the progressives’ party. It partly accounts for the reason Ajimobi defeated the incumbent Alao-Akala of the PDP in 2011.
Secondly, Ajimobi’s performance in the last four years is unparalleled. He has succeeded in changing the face and the name of the state among committee of top states through his cardinal programmes including urban renewal, environmental sanitation, integrity, laudable welfare for civil servants and infrastructural development, among others.
His footprints are visible in major towns across the state. This is perhaps the strongest factor that will count for the incumbent governor.
Thirdly, results of the National Assembly election has punctured assumption that Accord was next in strength to the APC in the state, and that it might upstage the former. In the result, while the APC won three senatorial seats and 12 out of 14 House of Representatives seats, Accord did not win a single seat. Only the PDP and LP won one seat each, and both are in Ogbomoso land.
With a total of 357,017 votes in the Senate and 349,618 in the House of Representatives, APC is poised to trounce, once again, other parties who came in distant second, third and fourth positions.
Accord that came second overall, scored 213 votes for the Senate and polled 171,675 in the race for the House of Representatives. It’s total of 384,826 is barely about 53 per cent of APC’s 706,635.
The PDP came third with a total of 325,251 votes, which is less than half of the APC’s.
With this result, the majority of voters are likely to see other parties as weak while seeing the APC as strong, and even waxing stronger by the day.
Already, some members of Accord in Ibadan North East Local Government have defected to the APC in a display of death of hope in their previous party. More of such defections are likely before the April 11 election.
In another perspective, the LP may not record another landslide victory in Ogbomoso as it did in 2011 because of Akala’s defection from the PDP. As shown in the March 28 elections, voters in Ogbomoso are now divided into LP, PDP and APC, with the profile of the APC rising sharply in the last four years.
The result has largely shown that both Alao-Akala and Ladoja, who were considered very strong contenders prior to last month election, no longer possess the electoral strength assumed. In fact, APC defeated Ladoja in his Ibadan North Local Government while Alao-Akala was unable to win all the seats in Ogbomoso or additional seat in Oke-Ogun as he did in 2011.
Fourthly, with three senators, 12 representatives mobilizing support across all the zones, combined with the power of incumbency, Ajimobi is most favored to break the second-term jinx in Oyo State on April 11,2015.
Judging by results of the 2011 governorship election, the March 28, 2015 election and the presence of a senator and House of Representatives member, APC’s Ajimobi is projected to coast home to victory in the zone.
Going by the result of the National Assembly election and the projects Ajimobi undertook in the zone such as granting autonomy to two tertiary institutions in the area, Ajimobi is projected to comfortably lead other candidates in the zone.
Judging by the results of the last election and the fact that the zone is traditionally progressives inclined, Ajimobi is projected to win convincingly in the area.
LP’s candidate, who hails from the town, is projected to have a clear lead in the zone. But APC and PDP candidates are also projected to follow him within a reasonable gap. This is because his defection from the PDP has broken his absolute following in the area. The deputy governorship candidate of the PDP hails from Ogbomoso while an APC senator has also emerged from the town. All these would combine to reduce the total votes he will garner from the zone.
Though Ibadan zone is a loose ground for all the four major parties, Ajimobi is projected to lead other candidates given the 2011 result and that of the last election. He is most likely to be followed by Accord candidate, Ladoja, who is popular in some of the councils.
However, with the adoption of President Goodluck Jonathan by the four opposition parties in the state, namely PDP, Labour Party, Accord Party and SDP in the March 28 Presidential election, coupled with the woeful outcome of the election in the state for the president, it is crystal clear that Ajimobi is likely set to make a history with the determination of the people of the state to vote for performance.