By Kehinde Okeowo
Elections and organized human societies came into existence as a result of the social contract entered into by people who were desperate to end what was then termed “state of nature” by a British scholar named Thomas Hobbes in 17th century. He described this period as brutish, short and nasty; hence, survival was dependent on one’s might. The cruel state of affairs eventually drove men to surrender their sovereignty to the state, which was then saddled with allocation of resources and running their affairs. Therefore, as Ondo citizens troop to the polling booths on October 10, 2020 to elect a leader to manage the sunshine state for the next four years, it is imperative to look at factors that might determine the outcome of the election.
Senatorial districts and candidates
The state can be divided into three senatorial districts namely, the north, central and south. The north consists of Akoko North-East, Akoko North-West, Akoko South-East, Akoko South-West, Ose and Owo local government areas, the central has Akure North, Akure South, Ondo East, Ondo West, Idanre and Ifedore Local government areas while the south is made up of Ile-Oluji/ Oke-Igbo, Odigbo, Irele, Ese-odo, Ilaje and Okitipupa local government areas.
A total of 17 political parties are expected to participate in the election but the contest is essentially between three major candidates, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN), the incumbent and candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who is from the northern senatorial district of the state, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), a former Attorney General of the state and flag bearer for Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who hails from the central senatorial district and Mr Agboola Ajayi ,a former Deputy Governor of the state and candidate of Zenith Labor Party (ZLP), who is from the southern senatorial district.
Zoning sentiment
After the eight years of Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, who is from the central senatorial district of the state, power shifted to the north. Therefore, people of the state in their quest to keep the zoning arrangement going are likely to vote for the candidate from the north, so that the district can complete its eight years of two terms before power shifts to the south. Apart from this, the south will be more comfortable with a northern candidate because he has just four more years to stay, a win for the candidate from the centre will mean they have to wait for another 8 years. Finally, it is paramount for the north and south to come together and defeat the central, in order to ensure that the zoning arrangement is not truncated.
Performance and power of incumbency
People will likely sack a government that underperformed and re-elect one that kept its promises. Consequently, the performance of the incumbent will be in view as the electorate vote in October. A recent assessment of the performance of Akeredolu’s administration conducted by The Coalition of Ethnic Nationality Youth Leaders of Nigeria (CENYLON) concluded that the governor has performed creditably well in areas of security of lives and properties, ease of doing business, infrastructural development, youth empowerment, agricultural development, economic revitalization , health, educational and sports development among others. Again, the incumbent’s control of the state apparatus is expected to work in his favor.
Ambition of the south
Despite the fact that Mr. Agboola Ajayi, the candidate of ZLP is from the south, his people are aware he stands little or no chance of winning given the might of the two political parties he is up against, the zoning arrangement and the towering numerical strength of the central district. This region knowing the sentiments favour them to produce the governor after four more years of Akeredolu will likely support the north to complete its term and thereafter expect a reciprocal gesture. As far as the south and north are concerned, the centre is a common enemy; therefore, for the south to fully benefit from the zoning arrangement, it will have to ditch Ajayi and join forces with the north to beat the central.
Polarization in central and Mimiko factor
The PDP candidate, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede who is from Akure in Ondo central senatorial district is expected to benefit from the fact that his local government and zone have the highest population and number of registered voters in the state. However, given the cosmopolitan nature of the local government and its status as state capital, it is a conglomeration of people from all walks of life and therefore, may not provide the desired advantage expected. This is so, because people are likely to vote along ethnic lines. In addition, Dr Olusegun Mimiko, the former state governor and political godfather of ZLP’s candidate is also from this senatorial district and remained highly influential in the scheme of things. He is expected to deploy his expertise, influence and popularity to sway votes in favour of his godson especially in Ondo West LG and Ondo East LG. Therefore, this might negatively impact the performance of Jegede in the two local governments.
Conclusion
All things being equal, Mr. Agboola Ajayi is expected to put up a good fight in the election, but a weak political platform and the dynamics of zoning are likely to inhibit his chances. The most potent challenger to the incumbent remains Mr. Eyitayo Jegede, who has the advantage of coming from the most populous zone of the state and contesting under a strong political platform. He, however, needs to navigate the formidable tide of zoning sentiments, cosmopolitan nature of his local government and the towering influence of Dr Mimiko in his senatorial zone.
The favorite remains the incumbent, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu who has factors such as zoning, performance and incumbency in his favour. In addition, his party has successfully wooed back a faction of the party which broke away before the primary election. He is however experienced enough to know he faces a referendum from the state electorates.