By Kehinde Okeowo
Elections and organized human societies came into existence as a result of the social contract entered into by people who were desperate to end what was then termed “state of nature” by a British scholar, Thomas Hobbes in 17th century. He described this period as brutish, short and nasty; hence, survival was dependent on one’s might. The cruel state of affairs eventually drove men to surrender their sovereignty to the state, which was then saddled with allocation of resources and running their affairs.
As Ondo voters troop to the polling booths on October 10, 2020 to elect a leader to manage the sunshine state for the next four years, it is imperative to look at factors that may determine the outcome of the election.
Senatorial districts and candidates
The state is divided into three senatorial districts namely, the north, central and south. The north consists of Akoko North-East, Akoko North-West, Akoko South-East, Akoko South-West, Ose and Owo local government areas. The central has Akure North, Akure South, Ondo East, Ondo West, Idanre and Ifedore Local government areas while the south is made up of Ile-Oluji/ Oke-Igbo, Odigbo, Irele, Ese-odo, Ilaje and Okitipupa local government areas. A total of 17 political parties are expected to participate in the election but the contest is essentially between three major candidates, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu (SAN), the incumbent and candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC) who is from the northern senatorial district of the state, Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), a former Attorney General of the state and flag bearer for People Democratic Party (PDP) who hails from the central senatorial district and Agboola Ajayi, Deputy Governor of the state and candidate of Zenith Labor Party (ZLP) who is from the southern senatorial district.
Zoning sentiment
After the eight years of Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, who is from the central senatorial district of the state, power shifted to the north. Therefore, people of the state in their quest to keep the zonal arrangement going are likely to vote for the candidate from the north, so that the district can complete its 8 years of two terms before power shifts to the south. Apart from this, the south will be more comfortable with a northern candidate because he has just four more years to stay, since a win for the candidate from the centre will mean they have to wait for another 8 years. Analysts thus recommend for the north and south to team up against the central, in order to ensure that the zoning arrangement in not truncated.
Performance and power of incumbency
People will likely sack a government that underperformed and re-elect one that kept its promises. Consequently, the performance of the incumbent will be in view as electorates vote in October. A recent assessment of the performance of Akeredolu’s administration conducted by The coalition of Ethnic Nationality Youth Leaders of Nigeria (CENYLON) concluded that the governor has performed creditably well in areas of security of lives and properties, ease of doing business, infrastructural development, youth empowerment, agricultural development, economic revitalization , health, educational and sports development among others. The battle cry among his supporters is that he has been tested and has exhibited trust in leadership. While the other candidates anchor their campaign on what they will do, Akeredolu is assuring on building on what he has at hand and doing more. These give him some edges. Again, the incumbency factor – a euphemism for a seating executive controlling the state apparatus in his favour, is expected to work in favour of the governor.
Ambition of the south
Despite the fact that Ajayi, the candidate of ZLP is from the south, there are insinuations that he stands little or no chance of winning given the might of the two political parties he is up against, the zoning arrangement and the towering numerical strength of the central district. The suggestion is that this region knowing the sentiments favor them to produce the governor after four more years of Akeredolu may likely support the north to complete its term and thereafter expect a reciprocal gesture. As far as the south and north are concerned, the centre is a common enemy; therefore, for the south to fully benefit from the zonal arrangement, it will have to ditch Ajayi and join forces with the north to beat the central. Besides, Ajayi’s movement from the APC to PDP and eventually to ZLP within a period of two months does not portray him as consistent to principles, despite his reasons for the action. Critics dismiss him as being too desperate to grab power at all cost.
Mimiko factor and schism in the central district
The PDP candidate, Jegede who is from Akure in Ondo central senatorial district is expected to benefit from the fact that his local government and zone have the highest population and number of registered voters in the state. The personal pedigree of the erstwhile attorney general and the unusual cohesion in his party, are considerations that give him good standing in the election.
However, given the cosmopolitan nature of the local government and its status as state capital, it is a conglomeration of people from different backgrounds and therefore, may not provide the desired advantage expected.
Again, Dr Olusegun Mimiko, the former governor and political godfather of ZLP’s candidate is also from this senatorial district and remains highly influential in the scheme of things. He is expected to deploy his influence and popularity to sway votes in favor of Ajayi, his godson especially in Ondo West LG and Ondo East LG. There is the fear that this may work against Jegede
But how far this will dim his chances remains to be seen. For one, many see in the election of Ajayi an elongation of the Mimiko administration. The extent of influence the former governor exercised in his days of the old Labour Party and PDP has also gone down considerably in the current ZLP. He is also not a candidate, but merely a godfather, strictly speaking. In a situation where the court of opinion does no longer favour godfather politics in many states, the Mimiko factor may not feature much in the poll.
The candidates, the chances
Ajayi is expected to put up a good fight in the election, but a weak political platform and the dynamics of zoning are likely to inhibit his chances. The most potent challenger to the incumbent remains Jegede, who has the advantage of coming from the most populous zone of the state and contesting under a strong political platform.
He however, needs to navigate the formidable tide of zoning sentiments, cosmopolitan nature of his local government and the Mimiko factor in his senatorial zone. The favorite remains the incumbent, Governor Akeredolu who has factors such as zoning, performance and incumbency in his favor. In addition, his party has successfully wooed back a faction of the party which broke away before the primary election. This notwithstanding the governor faces a serious challenge to his political career in the October 10 poll.
