By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Alleged plans to rig the ballot are being traded by the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) while militants raise the tension by threatening violence if that happens.
Four days to the vote, Islamic jihadists had intensified their own violence, killing about 10 people when they attacked the convoy of Borno State Governor, Kashim Shettima, on his way to a rally in Gamboru.
The threat by Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) to destroy oil installations if the election on February 16 is rigged in favour of President Muhammadu Buhari had an immediate impact on the sale of Nigeria’s crude oil.
Abuja held talks with the militants in 2016 and 2017 about their grievances over poverty and oil pollution in the Niger Delta.
No substantial attacks have been carried out by the insurgents since January 2017. That has allowed oil output to stabilise.
But, as Reuters reports, it has not settled the nerves of traders who remember that NDA perpetrated a wave of violence in 2016 which destroyed pipelines and other oil facilities.
That violence helped push Nigeria deeper into recession because it earns 95 per cent of its foreign exchange from oil receipts.
On February 14, about 15-20 cargoes of Nigerian crude were left in the March loading programme, a trader said, a lower range than given on February 13.
One trader said price talks had quietened down.
Qua Iboe last traded at around dated Brent plus $1.80-$1.90 per barrel (pb), implying a slightly weaker market than reported on February 11.
Traders have said the election could delay the release of the April loading programmes.
North East rebels kill for Islam
Islamist militants in the North East opened fire on the convoy of Shettima on February 12.
Shetttima, like Buhari, is a member of the APC
Security sources said on February 14 that three people were killed in the attack, but a government and a separate security source said as many as 10 people were killed, according to Reuters.
The sources said they suspected Islamist groups, such as Boko Haram or Islamic State West Africa Province.
ISIS later confirmed that it carried out the attack.
In the North East, insurgents are fighting for an Islamic hold. In the South South, the grouse is over the share of oil revenue and autonomy.
South South rebels want bigger share of oil money
NDA demands a greater share of oil revenues for the region that produces the liquid gold, wants the sack of Buhari through the ballot box, and prefers Atiku Abubakar to be president.
Atiku carries the flag of the PDP, which had ruled Nigeria to near ruin for 16 years, from 1999 to 2007, during which period he served as vice president under Olusegun Obasanjo.
He has promised to privatise state enterprises, if elected, and also favours restructuring the country to devolve more power to the regions.
A few hours after NDA posted its statement on its website on February 14 warning of “a perpetual recession for Nigeria” if Buhari is re-elected, he made a televised national address.
Buhari promised that the government would ensure a free, fair, and peaceful vote. He did not make any reference to the threat of NDA.
Attacks in the Niger Delta in 2016 cut Nigeria’s crude output from a peak of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) to near 1 mbpd, the lowest level seen in Africa’s biggest economy in at least 30 years.
That, combined with low oil prices, pushed the country deeper into its first recession in 25 years. The recession began in 2014.
Nigeria, the world sixth largest exporter of oil, currently produces 1.78 million bpd, Minister of State for Petroleum, Emmanuel Kachikwu, confirmed in Abuja on January 9.
He said output from Egina oilfield was expected to reach 150,000 bpd by the end of January, which could raise total production estimated at 2.2 million bpd in 2019.
With production cuts agreed by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s output is around 1.74 million bpd, excluding extremely light oil known as condensates.
Nigeria produces condensates of 350,000 bpd.
Allegations of rigging plot by APC, PDP
The PDP is inducing major stakeholders with money because it fears it will lose the election, alleged APC National Publicity Secretary, Lanre Issa-Onilu.
“The opposition party resolved to monetarily induce major actors and institutions in the electoral process with a view to compromising them ahead of the elections,” he said in a statement.
According to him, the PDP plans to share money to people considered critical to the success of the election.
The APC also alleged that the PDP
- Plans to distribute between $5 and $10 million to the states for “logistics and mobilisation” on election day.
- Targets Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officials, security agencies, and observers to buy them into its rigging plot.
- Is using “faceless bloggers” to attack front line security agencies on social media as part of its plan to discredit the agencies.
The APC urged everyone to be on high alert and resist this real and imminent threat during the election.
It alleged that the attacks on some INEC facilities are syndicated fake news and planted false reports which are part of the strategies of the PDP.
In the past one week, INEC offices in Plateau, Abia, and Anambra States have been destroyed by fire, burning up voting materials.
The PDP countered by accusing the APC of carrying out these incidents in order to disenfranchise voters in states likely to be won by Atiku.
It accused the APC of planning to use the INEC and the security agencies to rig the election in favour of Buhari. The PDP plans to establish election collation centres, saying it does not trust the INEC to produce credible vote figures