By Chris Ohanele
According to the assessment of many knowledgeable people and researchers, Nigeria has joined the ranks of failed states, a group that includes the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, and Myanmar. The only countries worse are those in the category of collapsed states; namely, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen. Any semblance of effective government in Nigeria is now limited to a few states and patches of territory around the country, leaving vast ungoverned spaces for terrorists, local militias, other armed groups, and criminal gangs to do pretty much what they want.
Nigeria checks almost all the boxes that show if and to what extent a state has failed. Lack of security; loss of control of its territory or part thereof, loss of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force; the rise of local militias and armed gangs competing with the government for hegemony; weak rules of law; endemic corruption, odious privilege and impunity; electoral fraud, limits on political participation; erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decision; discrimination within its borders against certain types of citizens and ethnic groups; inability to provide adequate educational, medical, and other public services.
Nigeria’s drift to failure has been of concern for many years to Nigerians as well as international organizations that study the progress of countries. Professors Chinua Achebe and Wole Soyinka warned for many years as did many others. But the political leaders paid no heed and kept pushing the country down a slippery slope. So much has been written about the matter and the failure was long in the making and many people saw it coming.
In the Foreign Affairs magazine in May 2021, Robert I. Rotberg of the Harvard Kennedy School, and John Campbell, senior fellow for Africa policy research at the Council on Foreign Relations and former ambassador to Nigeria, counted at least six internal insurrections currently in Nigeria and concluded that the inability of the Nigerian state to provide peace and stability to its people has tipped a hitherto very weak state into failure.
In this article, I would like to look at the matter from the prism of the Nigerian national motto – Unity and Faith, Peace and Progress. How does Nigeria measure against its chosen ideals? Of course, being ideals, the measure of success does not lie in the full realization of them but in the differential between those ideals and the actual conditions that exist; a small differential meaning a high degree of success. Unfortunately, what exists instead is a gulf, a huge differential, and a clear indication that the state has largely failed, at the least.
Nigeria’s national motto used to be simply Unity and Faith. Then in 1979 as it became clear that unity and faith were elusive and seemed unachievable, the federal government added Peace and Progress to the motto. Perhaps with the advent of a new civilian government in 1979 after fourteen consecutive years of military rule, the prospects for peace and progress seemed bright and most patriotic Nigerians had reason to hope that thenceforth the national scorecard might be good. Peace and Progress seemed like low hanging fruits to be harvested seamlessly. However, after more than forty years since the motto was updated, a period during which the country alternated between progress and backtrack, there is no doubt that Nigeria has failed to live up to the spirit and the letters of the motto. The country is finally well and truly on its way downslope.
Today the country is in tatters despite pretensions in some quarters. Unity is more elusive than ever, and people have lost faith in the state and its traditionally weak institutions. Rather than peace the country is going through its most violent, most anxious period since the end of the Nigeria-Biafra war in 1970. And how can one speak of progress with all the insecurity, the violence, killings, kidnappings, extortions, agitations, the corruption, and incompetence in high places. What about the looting of public resources, the lack of jobs, the despair, and the simmering restiveness of the youth?
How can there be peace and progress in a country where livestock has priority over people, and marauding armed herdsmen get preference over peaceful villagers who simply want to maintain their right to their ancestral land. The fact is that this failure did not start with the Buhari administration. It was long in the making. But since 2015 when President Buhari assumed office, the entire country has been on steroids and has rapidly sped to the precipice to meet its unhappy fate. Decline was put on fast track.
Unity
From the very beginning the stress on unity betrayed the inherent fear that the new nation state of Nigeria, following the 1914 amalgamation, was not sitting on a strong foundation of unity. And many people gave eloquent expression to this fear many years before independence, including prominent Nigerian politicians and colonial administrators. In his book, Path to Nigerian freedom, Chief Obafemi Awolowo called Nigeria a mere geographic expression. There are no “Nigerians” in the same sense as there are “English” or “Welsh” or “French”, he opined.
Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa is credited with saying that “since the amalgamation of Southern and Northern provinces in 1914, Nigeria has existed as one country only on paper. Nigeria’s unity is only a British intention for the country.” In 1948, Sir Arthur Richards, colonial Governor of Nigeria (1943 – 1948) said that “It is only the accident of British suzerainty which had made Nigeria one country” and noted that the people do not speak the same language and they have highly divergent customs and ways of life, and they represent different stages of culture.
The Unity problem showed up at various times during the pre-independence conversations and threatened the negotiations. Secession was on the minds of the negotiators, and they voiced it. In 1950, the Northern delegation to the constitutional conference threatened that unless the Northern region was allotted 50 percent of the seats in the federal legislature it would seek to secede from Nigeria.
Three years later, in 1953, the Western Region also threatened to secede but over the issue of revenue allocation and the separation of Lagos from the West as Federal capital. Chief Awolowo was reported to have challenged the Colonial Secretary to deny that the people of the Western region had the right of self-determination and the freedom to decide whether they remain in the proposed Nigerian Federation or not.
Up until 1966 Eastern Region was the most enthusiastic champion of one united Nigeria and loath to make secessionist threats. But by 1964 it had had enough and threatened to secede following the controversy due to the federal elections of that year. As it is now well known, the situation eventually came to a head and Eastern Region made good on that threat when in 1967 then Lt. Col. Odumegwu-Ojukwu proclaimed the independence of Biafra. The pogroms of 1966 in which thousands of Igbo people and others from the Eastern Region were killed in the north was too much to bear for the sake of a country that did not protect Ndigbo and many of our neighbours. And when the Gowon regime reneged on the Aburi accord that proved to be an intolerable affront and the East had to seek a separate Biafra homeland. A 30-month civil war was thus precipitated, part of which I witnessed in my 13th to 15th years on this earth. In January 1970 the war was over.
There is no question that Nigeria is less united today than it has been since 1970. The unity in the national motto still rings as hollow as ever causing one to wonder whether it was inserted as a mere mockery.
Ironically though there is a sense in which unity is still alive and well in Nigeria. Ethnicism and religious differences conveniently give way when corrupt officials from different parts of Nigeria come together united by their shared determination to take for themselves resources that rightfully belong to the entire people. While they selfishly appropriate public money for their private purposes they resist demands to restructure the country and strengthen its institutions.
But here is the paradox. They do not want the country completely dead either. They simply want it to remain weak because of the benefits they derive through access to public funds that come from sources like state corporations and parastatals and government ministries that require the existence of a formal state; and also because of the impunity they enjoy under the circumstances. They do not want a strong country that can hold them accountable. If the state ceases to exist that would mean the end of their illicit gains. Therefore, they do everything they can to prevent the country from disintegrating or being dissolved. This is how they have been able to deceive many people into seeing them as patriotic leaders who are standing up for Nigerian unity.
It is upon these considerations that this unity of unpatriotic and corrupt people has endured for so long and remains a serious impediment to the wellbeing of the people of Nigeria. When they are intent on their nefarious activities, it seems that none of those at the table cares anymore who is Igbo or Hausa or Yoruba or Fulani or Benin or Ijaw and so on as this variegated coalition of looters takes form.
Faith
Faith as a component of the national motto is a far cry from the reality of Nigeria. Rather than trust and confidence what truly exists in Nigeria is a complete mistrust of the state, its institutions, and especially its political leaders. It is difficult to put your faith in someone or something that you know or believe stands in opposition to your interest. If you must eat with some people on the national table, you must adopt mistrust as your personal motto and come to the meal with a very long spoon. From the beginning every part of the country mistrusted or distrusted the other parts. Every major ethnic group held at least strong suspicion of the other major groups if not outright hatred. There were too many differences of culture, religion, language, and educational standards, and people did not quite understand one another enough. Nigeria has not necessarily failed because of diversity. It is more accurate to say that the political leaders failed to manage the country’s diversity appropriately and instead of taking positive advantage of it, they exacerbated or exploited it or were too dim witted to know what good to make of it.
Today more than at any other time in the past 50 years the people of the Southeast, Ndigbo, generally consider the current federal government an existential threat to them. It was always unfortunate that faith was inserted in the national motto in the first place but today as far as Ndigbo are concerned, even among the less contemplative types, the word is seen as an insult to our sensibilities.
Due to the strong affinity of the Nigerian people for their ethnic homelands, faith might have been appropriate as a motto for any of the old regions. For instance, it would have made sense to say that Easterners, at least most of them, had high confidence in Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe or Dr. Michael Okpara and the work they did for the East when they were Premier. But most of the people of the Northern Region saw them differently and would not have trusted them very much. It was impossible then for people of both regions to identify with a national motto that had faith as one of the guiding ideals. But it was put there anyway.
Peace
Every objective assessment of the Nigerian political and economic landscape today returns the same verdict. There is neither peace nor progress. By progress, one does not mean somebody building a house or another buying a car. What is meant is a positive movement towards a desired destination that affects the community well. The erosion of values that started decades ago, the misgovernance and the impunity, the despair, and the anger have all converged and eventually brought the country to its knees.
For years there have been menacing tendencies and gathering clouds. And not much was done to nip emerging concerns and threats in the bud. I am not one to lump everyone together without good reason. But one can safely assert that Nigeria’s political leaders have abjectly failed to deal with even the most basic challenges for which they hold their positions. Rather than provide citizens with the bare necessities of life, they stole from them. Instead of managing the country’s resources competently, they wasted them. While they were expected to grow the economy and make it work for most citizens, they presided over its collapse. In saner countries reasonable people might expect their leaders to show contrition and retrace their steps when they make mistakes. Unfortunately, Nigeria, teeming with insensitive politicians and their hangers on, is not one of those countries.
Today the country is tense, insecure, and violent. And the people are angry and frustrated and afraid. In every part of Nigeria there is now a penumbra of fanatical gunmen, known and unknown, comprising local militias and warlords, agitators, kidnappers, armed bandits, and criminals each group employing such fascist tactics as they believe would instill the most fear or awe.
Nigeria is fast going down under the weight of what Dr. Azikiwe called an avalanche of cumulative grievances. All the trappings of a failed state are now evident in all parts, in mocking contradiction of each of those four words of the national motto. If the right kind of leaders had been in charge Nigeria might have been a leading light in the world. What it got instead were mostly people highly unfit for the responsibilities of their jobs and under the dead weight of their incompetence and selfishness the country has proven to be a huge disappointment.
Considering the enormous resources available to Nigeria for decades and its potentially high promise, the failure of the country, happening in real time before our eyes, if not reversed soon, will forever stand as a monument to stupidity and incompetence.
The failure of the federal government to defeat the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast of the country is in of itself evidence that Nigeria is a failed state. How could one conclude otherwise considering the large armed forces and huge defense budgets in the billions of US dollars? This terrorist menace has persisted for about twelve years and there can be nobody now who truly trusts the federal government as presently constituted to successfully bring this violent group to heel.
In the northwest states like Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, and Yobe, ravaging gangs including kidnappers, robbers, violent religious fanatics, opponents of the government, and sheer criminals have held sway for many years. The major roads linking the big cities are zones of insecurity and fear. Kidnappers have abducted students from boarding schools and used them to collect ransom in exchange for their release.
In spite of ongoing military actions including by the air force the gangs have not been dislodged and the menace has persisted.
For decades, the Niger Delta region has been restive, the people justifiably aggrieved that they have little to show for over sixty years of exploitation of petroleum resources from deep below their land or water. With an unfair revenue sharing formula and so many corrupt federal, state, and local officials there is little prospect that the people will get appropriate attention anytime soon. As the leaders of the once vocal, organized political pressure groups in the Delta received their warm corrupt handshakes and got “settled” the public agitation has weakened somewhat but the anger of the street has simmered and occasionally finds expression in kidnappings and assassinations and other crimes.
The people of the Middle Belt region comprising several states, have for years stood as a bulwark against the advance of armed nomadic herdsmen from the Sahel region and predominantly muslim parts of northern Nigeria towards the Southeast in particular. For many years the brave people of the Middle Belt have fought and suffered casualties as they clashed with the marauding herdsmen over access to land and water.
The other parts of the country have not been unscathed either. In the Southwest and the Southeast and in the space between them, people are being subjected to incessant attacks also by armed herdsmen, local militias and rogue youths, criminal gangs, and opportunists who kidnap, rob, kill, extort, rape and pillage. Almost everywhere self-defense militias and warlords have mushroomed and operating outside of state control and sometimes in confrontation with it. As we all know incursions by armed Fulani herdsmen into the Southeast has finally riled up Ndigbo many of whom now support groups such as the Indigenous People of Biafra calling for outright secession and the creation of a sovereign state of Biafra.
Progress
As peace has now become a scarce commodity progress has come to a standstill in many parts for without peace and security sustainable progress is impossible. As already mentioned when peace and progress were added to the national motto in 1979 the national outlook seemed positive as the country was transitioning from years of military rule to a democratic dispensation. Given nine years of relative peace following the civil war it was only natural to hope and even expect that progress would follow naturally.
In Imo State (then comprising today’s Imo and Abia states) Governor Sam Mbakwe performed very well and his regime is credited with the rebuilding of Aba following the destruction it suffered during the civil war and other notable achievements like Imo airport, Amaraku Power Station, city street telephones, refuse disposal trucks, water projects, and road construction works. In four years, the people of the old Imo State witnessed a government and a governor in action, reminiscent of the progress that Eastern Region made under the able premier, Dr. Michael Okpara.
During the Mbakwe administration, Imo State lived up to its reputation as the Home of Progress and its citizens walked with their heads high. For them that democratic experimentation was going well when it was truncated by Gen. Buhari in the coup of December 31, 1983. It did not take long for the legacy of Governor Mbakwe to be dismantled by successive governments.
Finally I would say that Ndigbo have made enormous sacrifice for the sake of Nigerian unity. But we have not got a fair deal. While we have had a few able political leaders who served the interest of our people most of them, especially after 1983, have been terrible and have contributed immensely to the sorry state of Nigeria and Ndigbo. We should be angry, and we are. But we should keep hope alive or it will die. And when hope dies all is lost.
As a people we have also made mistakes and hopefully learnt a few lessons. The future of Nigeria and the place of Ndigbo in or out of it will be decided one way or another. Like many other Nigerians we have just and legitimate demands – freedom, justice, fairness, and equity. We are united in this. But inevitably there are differences in how we pursue these demands. The challenge is not the what but the how.
The available options include
- Restructuring of the country into autonomous, self-governing, economically viable regions within the Nigerian federation.
- Negotiated separation from the Nigerian federation, and
- outright secession.
Each option with its own amount of difficulty will dictate the level and depth of our engagement with the other ethnic nationalities and regions. Each option will have consequences for peace or war and its chances for victory. We must be deliberate in choosing our path forward. We must be strategic. We must be united. We must not turn on one another. We need capable and sincere leadership. And yes we must be passionate. But we must ensure that our passion is guided by the light of reason.
Chris Ohanele, a geologist and former New ventures/Marginal Fields Manager of Shell Petroleum Development Company Nigeria Limited, wrote in from the U.S.