Nigerians expect to vote in their millions for president and federal lawmakers on Saturday, March 28 after scaling hiccups and threats to scuttle the desire of ordinary folks for another smooth civilian transition since 1999 in the world’s fourth largest democracy.
But the greatest stake by kilometres is the fight for Aso Rock, which narrows down from an unwieldy 14 candidates to just two: President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Rematch ends in 2-0 or draw
If Jonathan wins, it would be 2-0 against Buhari, and another triumph for a man from a minority of the minorities who overcame hardscrabble village life, where he attended elementary school barefooted, to cement his grip on the most powerful position in the country.
If Buhari wins, it would be a draw against Jonathan – being a rematch after the 2011 contest which Jonathan won – and a testament to the gritty spirit of a marksman who, despite knock-downs in three previous attempts, hit the target with his last shot.
The presidential race is the tightest in Nigeria’s political history. Opinion polls put both men at 42 per cent.
Economy, insurgency, antecedents
Apart from politics, other matters that weigh heavily on the minds of voters include the North and South divide, religion, ethnicity, the economy, Boko Haram, propaganda, the personalities of Jonathan and Buhari, their antecedents, and perceived competence.
Both candidates have returned to the stump with more vigour in the past four weeks, after the lull that greeted the election postponement in February. They have changed strategies.
Jonathan has been highlighting his achievements and parleying with more traditional rulers. Buhari has added to his rallies more town hall meetings at home and abroad, fielding questions direct from members of the public.
To win the Presidency, a candidate has to score at least 25 per cent of the vote in at least two-thirds (24) of the 36 states and carry the majority vote.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says about 82 per cent of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) for 68 million registered voters had been distributed as of March 17 for the elections, which were shifted from February 14 because of security concerns.
Millions of voters have already made up their minds, based on historical factors, regional sentiments, as well as the pitches of both candidates. Below are some of the elements that may swing the vote in the battleground zones.
Generic
Much of the three zones in the North (West, East, Central) may vote for Buhari riding on the crest of ethnicity and religion. But each of the three zones in the South (West, East, South) is on a separate pivot and cannot be banded together in one category of voter sentiment.
North East
Boko Haram insurgency may tilt the vote in the North East for Buhari.
Except for Taraba, and to some extent Adamawa, voting is predictable in the North East, which also comprises Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, and Gombe.
Buhari got more votes than Olusegun Obasanjo in the zone in 2003, and more than Jonathan in 2011. But he received fewer than his kinsman, Umaru Yar’Adua, in 2007.
The Boko Haram menace, which has caused economic and social stagnation in the zone, may bolster Buhari’s chances, although his victory may be limited to areas where Muslims have the numbers.
North West
Kaduna appears the only state in the North West where Jonathan may challenge Buhari. In others – Kano, Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, and Katsina – Buhari seems the favourite.
Like in the 2011 ballot, Buhari may pull more votes than Jonathan in Kaduna albeit with a slim margin.
Kaduna is split into North, dominated by Muslims; and South, where there are more Christians. But because of the violence that greeted the 2011 poll, there may be voter apathy in Kaduna South to the extent of affecting the chances of Jonathan.
In 2011, Buhari received 12,214,853 votes nationwide, 11,895,853 from the 19 Northern states and Abuja. He got only 319,000 votes from the 17 Southern states.
Benue
The popularity of the APC is growing in Benue, especially with the defection to it by former PDP National Chairman, Barnabas Gemade. The state had always been a PDP stronghold, but the opposition has been cutting deep since 2011, even with the presence of Senate President, David Mark, a PDP stalwart representing the state.
Tor Vande-Aka, a journalist, said the chances of the APC winning Benue in the presidential vote depends on its ability to campaign without a tactical error the PDP can exploit.
Plateau
Plans by Governor Jonah Jang to swap offices with his nephew, Senator Gyang Pwajok, are being resisted. Pwajok, who represents Plateau North, seeks the governorship. Jang wants to go to the Senate.
This has turned people against the PDP, which may affect Jonathan’s chances, although he is popular for constructing the Bukuru-Jos Expressway, a major artery on the plateau.
Kogi
The PDP is jittery because of the heavyweight defections of its members to the APC – such as Saliu Atawodi, former state Accountant General; Ubolo Okpanachi, former state PDP Chairman; Senator Nicholas Ugbane; and Sani Ogu, former Local Government Service Commission Chairman.
A journalist who lives in the state, Augustine Adah, said the defections are a threat to the dominance of the PDP and the victory of Jonathan.
Lagos
Lagos, the state with the highest number of educated residents, also has the highest number of registered voters (5.8 million) and the highest number of PVC collection (3.7 million).
The key political figures are Governor Babatunde Fashola, and former Governor Bola Tinubu, both members of the APC who can join hands to swing the vote for Buhari.
In the PDP column for Jonathan are former Works Minister, Adeseye Ogunlewe; former Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) board Chairman, Bode George; and PDP governorship candidate, Jimi Agbaje.
The PDP has never won Lagos. Tinubu became Governor in 1999, served two terms till 2007, and handed over to Fashola that year. Tinubu laid the groundwork of most of the achievements for which Fashola is popular.
Agbaje is respected and well received in some quarters, particularly the middle class, but his political clout may be too little to pull the crowd for Jonathan.
Ekiti
In June 2014, Ayo Fayose beat Kayode Fayemi in the governorship election, swinging the state from the APC to the PDP. Jonathan is favoured to carry Ekiti, but Fayose’s utterances may affect him.
Fayose returned to power in a wave of public agitation. However, his actions since resuming office has diminished his popularity. For instance, he reversed some of Fayemi’s widely acclaimed policies such as the creation of Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs), which did not go down well with the people.
Since Fayose returned to the helm, he has hardly initiated any significant project but instead is busy trying to clean the state of Fayemi’s sympathisers and loyalists in government.
The APC, which lost its stronghold after the governorship ballot, especially with the defection of some of its state legislators to the PDP, has been playing on public disenchantment to rebuild itself.
Ondo
The defection of Governor Olusegun Mimiko from Labour Party (LP) to the PDP has rejigged Ondo politics.
He had been popular before his defection which has created for him three major political foes – the PDP chieftains he dislodged, LP stalwarts disappointed by his exit, and the APC waiting in the wings to snatch his job.
The aggrieved have reportedly formed an alliance against Mimiko, which may work against Jonathan.
However, a source disclosed that despite the in-fighting in the state PDP, Jonathan’s decision to implement the report of the national conference has boosted his chances in Ondo.
Imo
Imo is a difficult scene for Buhari even though Governor Rochas Okorocha is a member of the APC. Religion and ethnicity may play a huge role.
Imo is a deeply Catholic state and Okorocha has displeased the Church for allegedly disrupting a governorship debate it organised.
A lawyer, Theophilus Nmekam, said “Buhari should thank his stars if he gets up to 25 per cent vote in Imo. An average Igbo man in Imo State will vote Jonathan as President and Okorocha as Governor.”
But a teacher, Donatus Odumogu, countered that because of Okorocha’s style of campaigning, he may get women to vote for Buhari because of the broom in the flag of the APC.
Joseph Adom, an engineer, insisted that Buhari may win Imo because of the influence of Okorocha.
Abia
Jonathan won 99 per cent of the vote in 2011, Buhari received less than 1 per cent. The five South East states – Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo – are Buhari’s worst nightmare. The states are mainly Christian, and are all PDP, except Imo.
Edo
Edo is an APC state and Governor Adams Oshiomhole is on the ground campaigning hard for Buhari.
In his re-election in June 2012 under the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Oshiomhole shocked pundits by clinching the majority vote in all the 18 councils, including Uromi, the town of PDP chieftain, Tony Anenih.
However, the rising profile of Buhari is tearing the Benin monarchy apart.
David Edebiri, the Esogban of Benin, who is the Chairman of Benin Forum (BF), a socio-political group whose resolution carries much weight, declared that the Bini would vote for Buhari.
Amos Osunbor, the Eson of Benin, insisted that the Bini would vote for Jonathan.
Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom has been dominated by the PDP since 1999, but the permutation for the 2015 vote may alter that arrangement.
The scenario changed immediately the PDP, embodied by Governor Godswill Akpabio, denied Oron the opportunity to produce the governorship candidate for this election.
The defection of former Secretary to the State Government, Umana Okon Umana, from the PDP to the APC is another factor likely to sway the vote for Buhari.
Akpabio has boasted that the state will deliver 1.5 million votes to Jonathan.
But Inibehe Effiong, a political scientist and an indigene of Akwa Ibom, highlighted why Jonathan and the PDP may lose the state.
“I know countless people from Akwa Ibom State that will never vote for Jonathan in 2015. Most of them cannot declare their stand publicly for fear of being haunted, maligned, and insulted by the ever abusive pro-Jonathan attack dogs,” he said.
The PDP deprived a member of the House of Representatives representing Oron, Robinson Uwak, a return ticket and he defected to the APC.
Uwak has publicly challenged the Akpabio administration over the neglect of Oron, an issue a political science graduate from the University of Calabar, Emmanuel Abang, said “may count against Jonathan in the presidential election.”
The Ibibio factor is another major concern for the PDP. The Ibibio ethnic bloc has been yearning for the return of power since the exit of Governor Victor Attah in 2007. It feels strongly that power could return to it since Umana, an indigene, aspires to the governorship on the platform of the APC.
Ibibio, the largest ethnic group with over 60 per cent voting strength, may tilt it for Buhari.
“It is clear that the Ibibio will queue behind their own because Akpabio has taken the governor from Oron to Eket,” said Eteyen Essangebianga, a former Councillor in Oron Council.
Delta
Ifeanyi Umeh, a cleric, said Buhari has no place in the state as the air smells of Jonathan.
He insisted that Jonathan has the heart of Deltans as they are pleased with the achievements of Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan, a member of the PDP.
Rivers
Both Jonathan and Buhari are likely to get at least 25 per cent of the vote. Despite the vigorous campaign of Governor Rotimi Amaechi, it may be difficult for Buhari to carry the state.
A source explained: “Don’t forget that Rivers and Bayelsa, until 1996, were one state. So, Jonathan was a Rivers man before he became a Bayelsa man. The preponderance of opinion in Rivers is that Jonathan has an edge.
“Amaechi has done enough work to rubbish Jonathan. But because of regional interest, Jonathan may come out victorious. However, it cannot be like in 2011, where Nyesom Wike and Amaechi ensured victory for Jonathan. Now both men are working separately.”