Assistant Editor (South West), MUYIWA OLALEYE, looks at some factors that may play significant roles in next week’s elections.
With the February 14 presidential election drawing close, there have been incidences of horse-trading and manoeuvring from the leading political parties. In the emerging development, politicians are employing different strategies to outwit one another on why the electorate should vote them in.
The two have, in continuation of their campaigns, been touring the country, explaining why they should be voted for.
With President Jonathan, a Southern Christian, contesting with a Northern Muslim, analysts predict that the elections will have implications not just for North-South relations but also for the survival of the country’s democracy.
Nigeria is the continent’s biggest economy and most populous country. Thus, instability in Nigeria could have dire economic impact for the region, it has been estimated. Similarly, with the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from the Boko Haram insurgency estimated at about 650,000 as of August 2014, a mismanaged election could trigger post-election violence that will exacerbate the refugee crisis both internally and at the regional level.
The fault lines of region, ethnicity and region run deep in Nigeria. Virtually every part of the country has an institutionalised memory of injury or feelings of injustice, which they often feel will be best addressed if one of their own wields power at the centre.
Similarly, there is the pervasive fear that the president of the country will abuse the powers of his office to the advantage of his region, or religion against the others.
The election is, therefore, likely to witness an intense politicisation of the Muslim-Christian divide and the North-South dichotomy in the country, which, it is feared, will add to the already existing tension in the country.
APC strategists are banking on votes from the North West (18 million votes), North East (11 million votes) and South West (13.5 million votes) for victory. Based on this calculation, the APC, after choosing Buhari from the North West as its presidential candidate, also settled for Professor Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from the South West, as its vice presidential candidate. What remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubu – a former governor of Lagos State, who played a pivotal role in the formation of the APC and is considered to be the party’s strongest mobiliser in the South West, will be very enthusiastic in delivering the battleground South West to the APC during the elections. Tinubu indicated his interest in being the party’s vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party’s strategists felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the PDP’s labelling of the APC as an Islamic party.
The greatest strength of PDP is the so-called ‘power of incumbency’, and all the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does it have federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutions like the police, the army and the anti-corruption agencies like the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which could be used to harass political enemies. Further, of the 36 states in the country, the PDP has 21 governors, while APC has 14. The PDP also commands numerical strength in the Senate and House of Representatives.
Supporters of the party, further argue that, despite Boko Haram attacks, the country is thriving and the economy growing, adding that with the rebasing of the national gross domestic product (GDP), Nigeria has become the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world.
Jonathan’s supporters also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions around the world.
His critics, however, point to the rising unemployment rate, which reportedly rose from 12 per cent in 2006 to 24 per cent in 2011, general insecurity in the country and the deepening suspicion among the different ethnic groups, as indicating that the administration has lost focus.
Another area that has attracted comments is the performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which, some say, has improved in terms of the transparency and logistics of the electoral processes under Professor Attahiru Jega. Others, however, accuse the Commission of bias. The APC, for instance, has on occasions accused INEC of being manipulated by the PDP-controlled federal government. PDP has also accused the body of pandering to APC.
Jega had at a time been accused of planning to rig the 2015 election when he suggested creating more polling booths, most of which were to be in the North. The professor of political science has, however, assured of fair play at the polls.
To minimise the chances of the elections leading to chaos and violence, a number of pre- and post-election arrangements have been recommended by experts. These include updating and double checking the electoral register before the polling day. They also suggest that the electoral commission should develop robust early warning systems in areas where there are likely to be logistical problems and where pre- or post-election violence are likely to occur. Credible local and international observers, they say, must be allowed to monitor the elections to ensure that the entire electoral processes are transparent. They further insist that well-trained security personnel should be deployed in volatile areas to prevent or stop outbreak of violence.
It is not certain if INEC is working on any of the suggestions. Jega has, however, maintained that the commission will give Nigerians free and fair polls next month.