As the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) strategises to get an acceptable candidate for its presidential ticket, Assistant Politics Editor, DANIEL KANU, examines some of the issues that may shape the party’s choice.
Muhammadu Buhari
There are indications that given what seems a zoning arrangement by the All Progressives Congress (APC), the North will produce the party’s presidential candidate in the 2015 general elections.
At the last count, APC has settled for the following arrangement.
North – president, South – vice president, South East/South South – Senate president, South East/South – House of Reps speaker, South South – national chairman, deputy national secretary, deputy-national legal adviser, national vice chairman, ex-officio, zonal youth leader, and zonal woman leader.
South West – national legal adviser, deputy-national chairman (South), national vice chairman, ex-officio, zonal youth leader, zonal woman leader, and national financial secretary
South East – national organising secretary, national auditor, deputy financial secretary, deputy woman leader, national vice chairman, ex-officio, zonal youth leader and zonal woman leader.
North Central – national publicity secretary, national woman leader, deputy welfare secretary, deputy national treasurer, national vice-chairman, ex-officio, zonal youth leader and zonal woman leader.
North East – national secretary, national youth leader, deputy national organizing secretary, deputy national auditor, national vice-chairman, ex-officio, zonal youth leader and zonal woman leader.
North West – national welfare secretary, deputy national chairman (north), national vice chairman, ex-officio, zonal youth leader, zonal woman leader and national treasurer.
Apparently in line with the situation, two leading figures in the party – former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd,) and former Vice President, Abubakar Atiku – seem not to be leaving anything to chance, as they appear bent on contesting the ticket at the party’s convention scheduled for December.
Aside the two heavyweights, there are other chieftains of the party who have either shown interest on the job or are perceived to be nursing the ambition. In these categories are the likes of Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha; his Kano State counterpart, Rabiu Kwankwaso; former Kwara State Governor, Senator Bukola Saraki; and publisher of Leadership newspapers, Sam Nda-Isaiah.
It is expected that more aspirants will indicate interest in the race, as the convention day draws closer. Among these are chieftains that are classified as pretenders, who may sell impression of being in the race as basis for bargaining for other considerations.
“Political pretenders will always join the race to use the platform either to negotiate for positions with the candidate that will win, to be settled financially, to create awareness for future political ambition or as spoilers for another aspirant that is perceived to have an edge over their candidate,” a political commentator, Michael Obasi, told TheNiche, in Umuahia, Abia State.
Papering the cracks in local chapters
The race for the party’s top job, however, comes amid cracks in some local chapters of the party. Against the background of the festering grievances and internal party squabbles in affected state chapters of the party, political watchers are of the view that the stakeholders must act fast to settle all raging disputes and bring back the estranged leaders that can lift the fortunes of the party to one fold.
But APC National Publicity Secretary, Lai Muhammed, had assured that there would be no cause for alarm, as the two reconciliation committees set up by the party to drive the peace efforts would frankly address all issues to the satisfaction of all.
According to Mohammed: “Two of our reconciliation committees led by Atiku and Senator Bukola Saraki have started work and have also met with various party leaders and stakeholders in an effort to try and sort out disagreeable issues.
“Certainly, progress at reconciliation has reached advanced stage. We expect that all the grey areas will be attended to, with most of our aggrieved members back to the fold before arrangements for our presidential convention will commence.”
Investigations by TheNiche showed that aspirants perceived to have serious ambition have started meetings aimed at strategising and mobilising support from every segment of the party.
Settling for Buhari, Atiku
Buhari and Atiku, who unarguably are the two top contenders, are not without their baggage and strength in the event of any of them emerging the presidential candidate of the party, it has been argued.
Analysts, however, note that the choice of either of the two may lead to either an easy ride for President Goodluck Jonathan for another term or make his re-election bid very tough and a nightmare for him, depending on how the process is handled.
Examining Buhari’s capacity
Although Buhari’s financial muscle cannot be compared to that of Atiku when it comes to spending for political mobilisation and logistics, going by opinion poll, commentators seem to agree that Buhari has an edge over others for the party’s ticket and main election.
In a way, Nigerians have seen the former head of state as the epitome of opposition politics and an incorruptible leader who they know where he stands on any issue.
Perhaps more than that, it has been argued that the emergence of Buhari as the candidate of the APC will give Jonathan worry than that of any other candidate because of his near cult followership across different zones in the country.
It is also believed that Buhari has strong political principles that he can be identified with, unlike some others that are always willing to change their political boat by any slightest challenge threatening their ambition.
This view has been corroborated by one of the strong voices of the party, Osita Okechukwu, who said Buhari is more eminently qualified by all standards, as far as APC is concerned today, to lead the presidential battle, given his pedigree and acceptability by Nigerians.
Okechukwu, who spoke in Abuja, maintained that Buhari remains a viable candidate for the highest office despite some critics who are opposing his candidacy based on age.
He said if the party adopts direct primary, Buhari will most likely emerge, as he has the highest followership in Kano that registered 2.6 million members – the highest for APC.
According to Okechukwu, “If a free and fair presidential primary is conducted in the APC, and going by Article 20 of our great party, which provides for consensus, direct or indirect primary, as one of the modes to adopt in conducting primaries, it will be difficult under consensus to tell Buhari to step down for any other.”
Incidentally, aside the factor of age which many believe will work against Buhari, one of the baggage he carries, which may work against him, is the allegation of being a religious bigot who will stop at nothing to promote his religion while looking down on other faiths.
There are also insinuations of Buhari picking former Lagos governor and national leader of the party, Bola Tinubu, as his running mate. Analysts see the development as a tactical blunder for the party, given that the two are Muslims
Atiku to the rescue
Snippets from Atiku’s campaign team suggest that the former vice president intends to unfold his presidential agenda immediately after return from his tour abroad.
It is argued that if and when he makes the move, Atiku will be running on a terrain he is quite familiar with, being a politician to the core.
Given his political experience, especially as former vice president, his deep pocket, ability to influence the party and if need be buy up party delegates, he stands a chance to clinch the party’s ticket.
In the run up to the 2011 presidential election when there was great need for a consensus candidate from the North to battle Jonathan over the PDP ticket, Atiku contested with other political heavyweights like Senator Saraki and Aliyu Muhammed Gusau and floored them.
A close aide of the former vice president, who preferred anonymity, revealed that when he comes back, he would most probably address the media formally to announce his interest.
“Atiku would be running for the APC presidential ticket, notwithstanding the involvement of Buhari in the race and his presumed popularity. He will unfold his political agenda as it concerns his presidential bid as soon as he jets back to the country. I can assure you he will run. There is no going back, as everything concerning it has been perfected.
“Of course before now, our Turaki had been mobilising support from all party stakeholders and fine-tuning his existing political structures across the country since he joined the opposition group. I can tell you that he is on top of his game. All Atiku is asking for is a level-playing field, so that at the end of the process, the party would come out stronger. This will make it possible for other aspirants who may have lost to turn their support for the chosen candidate,” the source disclosed.
The former vice president is incidentally not a greenhorn in the game. In fact, until his suffocating engagement with former President Olusegun Obasanjo in the build up to the 2003 general election, his political clout had loomed large across the country. Atiku, drawing immensely from the political craftsmanship and extensive network of his mentor, the late Shehu Yar’Adua, had at the onset of the current political dispensation sent signals of his interest at occupying the highest office in the land at the appropriate time. Launching himself on the wings of the then Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), the leadership of which he inherited following the death of Yar’Adua, Atiku clearly emerged as a strong factor in defining the tempo of PDP politics.
When eventually he left the governorship election that he had easily won in Adamawa for a vice presidential slot, it was seen as an attempt at marketing his intimidating credentials at the national level. Even then, it was taken for granted that he was the undisputed leader of the state’s politics. However, when his battle with Obasanjo began to take turns for the worst, enormous efforts were deployed by the highly vindictive former president to shoot down his towering influence.
Ever since, Atiku has not really found his footing in the nation’s politics, despite what has been seen as his occasional between parties. This, for instance, is his second movement from PDP, having done so in 2003, when he ran for the presidency on the ticket of the then Action Congress (AC).
It is on the strength of these strings of losses that some observers say he has become more of a paper tiger in recent times. They particularly cite the impeachment of Murtala Nyako and his consequent loss in Adamawa politics as indicating that he may be living on old glory.
His critics particularly decry his easy recourse to abandoning a political party when there is minor challenge that would have provided a springboard for him to showcase leadership.
There are, thus, suggestions that Jonathan will make little or no effort to beat Atiku because there seems to be a groundswell of public opinion against his character of political instability – a trait they claim is the hallmark of a political opportunist, one that cannot be politically trusted.
For Ibrahim Mohammed, critic and rights activist, Atiku does not have the unique credential of a leader that the country needs, which is standing out for the general good when personal comfort is at stake.
“Atiku Abubakar is rich, yes we know, but he has not shown that he can be trusted. If you look at his political antecedents, you will know that whenever his personal ambition is threatened, he looks for a way of escape, not minding where the people stand. He has not shown that he has the maturity to lead Nigeria. We need a leader that is above board in public thinking and personal ambition,” he stressed.
Although the battle is between Buhari and Atiku, some stakeholders in the party are of the view that younger politicians like Kwankwaso, Nda-Isaiah and Saraki should be given a chance to contest from the North.
Nda-Isaiah boasted recently that he remained the candidate to beat, while Kwakwanso has remained optimistic, with Saraki saying he has what it takes to lead Nigeria out of its present doldrums.
How everything plays out depends on APC leadership that may be gunning for a candidate that has followership not only in the North but across the nation’s geo-political zones.