By Emeka Alex Duru
Notwithstanding the outcome of the petition by the Imo State Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in the 2019 election, Emeka Ihedioha, over the January 14 Supreme Court verdict which upturned his victory in favour of Hope Uzodimma of the All Progressives Congress (APC), a trend that may define the 2023 South East politics may have commenced. Ihedioha and his party, have since the controversial judgement, been putting up measures to get the apex court reverse itself and return him to office. On the other hand, Uzodimma and the APC are not relenting in consolidating their hold on power. In fact, for APC, events of the day are rather giving it strength to firm up its presence in other states in the region.
PDP on recovery mission
Before the January 14 judgement, PDP had seemed on course in regaining its control of Imo politics – a position it lost to the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in the early days of the Rochas Okorocha administration and later to the APC. At the commencement of the present dispensation in 1999 up to 2007, PDP was virtually in control of affairs in the state. With Achike Udenwa as the governor, most of the elective positions in the state, were held by the party. Following internal crisis in the run-up to the 2007 elections, the party could not produce a governorship candidate, making it possible for Ikedi Ohakim, then, of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA), to emerge governor. Even with his emergence as governor, the legislature was dominated by the PDP. It was therefore, not surprising that Ikedi, shortly on assumption to office, returned to the PDP, where he originally belonged.
Ohakim lost in his re-election bid in 2007 to Okorocha, another erstwhile PDP chieftain, who contested on the platform of APGA. Midway into his first term, Okorocha crossed over to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), one of the political parties that morphed into the APC. From then till the end of his tenure in 2019, Imo was effectively an APC state. With the election of Ihedioha and majority of the legislators on the ticket of the PDP, the state seemed to return to its original PDP sentiment.
Supreme Court alters equation
The Supreme Court verdict and fluidity of events subsequently, may have altered the entire equation. Perhaps, as foretaste of the emerging trend in the politics of the state, most of the assembly members elected on the banner of the PDP, have reportedly defected to APC, thus yielding to Uzodimma and the party, effective control of the state.
How this apparent band-wagon politics will affect the other states in the region, may not be readily estimated. But if the statement credited to the APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, is to serve as guide, the development in Imo may signal further audacious incursion by the party in the South East in the days ahead. According to Oshiomhole, Uzodimma’s victory has re-established the APC foothold in the South East. He said, “Now we can truly say that we not only control the centre, we have governors in each of the six geo-political zones. That, I believe, is good for our party”.
APC goes for a kill
Many see the remark as an indication of the agenda of the APC in the South East in 2023. The programme actually commenced from the victory of the Party in the November 15, 2019 governorship election in Bayelsa. That was seen as an unprecedented feat in the history of the state. Bayelsa had been a state that could pass as the heart of the PDP. From 1999, virtually all the elective positions in the state had been won by the party, until lately. Former President, Goodluck Jonathan, is from the state. At major national elections, Bayelsa had delivered almost hundred percent of its votes to the PDP. For the party to have lost to the APC in the November governorship poll in the state, was seen as a clear indication of the APC bold move into the South-South. With that, foot soldiers of the party had boasted that taking over the South East, was a matter of time.
Anambra on the card
This is the main concern on how the Imo issue pans out. Anambra governorship election, is for instance, about a year ahead. PDP in the state, has not particularly been cohesive, especially on fielding candidates for elections. In most cases in the build-up to elections, Anambra state wing of the party, had broken into factions, leading to its poor outings. The feeble attempts by the party in the state at presenting a common front in the 2019 election, were essentially borne of the Peter Obi factor. Even then, the various tendencies in its fold, remained visible. There is therefore the fear that with the resurgence of hope and enthusiasm in APC, it may record an upset in the state. This is particularly with the ruling party in the state, APGA, presently standing on shaky legs on account of poor management of its affairs by the trio of Governor Willie Obiano, Senator Victor Umeh, Victor Oye and their various allies. There is even the suspicion that Obiano may be gravitating towards the APC at the end of his tenure. If the APC, therefore, succeeds in chalking up Anambra, going for Enugu, Abia and/or Ebonyi, in 2023, may not be too much of a task for the party.
Abia looks more vulnerable among the three. Voters in the state have not really experienced good governance under PDP governors since 1999. Neither Orji Kalu, Senator Theodore Orji, nor the current governor, Okezie Ikpeazu, had given the people much reasons to stick with the party in the next election. A fairly acceptable candidate and the so-called federal might, may be the push the APC will need to take Abia.
The fear in Ebonyi, is the governor, Dave Umahi, not even handing over the state to the APC before serving out his term. His romance with the President, is said to be giving his fellow party men some discomfort. His utterances are also not helping matters. The other day, he was quoted to have boasted that he was more APC than even the card-carrying members of the party. His explanation on the outlandish comment, has not been convincing. As if that was not enough, he did a follow-up in assuring the Edo state governor, Godwin Obaseki, a member of the APC, that his re-election, for a second term, is a done deal. What Umahi said, in practical terms, was that whoever his party the PDP throws up in Edo, would not enjoy his support. Edo state wing of the party, has rightly accused him of engaging in anti-party activities.
Ebonyi is known for sticking with a particular party at a time. This poses great challenge for the PDP if the governor eventually moves to the APC with his political structures in the state. Perhaps, may be Enugu that, for now, can be fully counted for the PDP. The party is relatively intact in the state. APC, its main rival, is always in constant disarray. The entire thing however depends on how the two contending parties manage themselves before 2023.
Since the Emeka Ihedioha imbroglio, PDP has been exhibiting some measures of seriousness in guarding its areas of control. The party recently elected Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, Sokoto state governor, as chairman of its Governors’ Forum. Tambuwal’s interest in the presidency, is obvious. At the last PDP presidential primary, he came second to Atiku Abubakar. He is still seen as having interest in flying the flag of the party in 2023. He may therefore be the galvanizing factor in rallying the party to reckoning. Internal crisis in APC may also work for the party. Which ever way it goes, South East is sure to present a battle ground for the APC and PDP in 2023.