By Ishaya Ibrahim
Candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, will have to win the North East, or at least, pull a draw against his All Progressives Congress (APC) rival, Muhammadu Buhari, to increase his stake of winning the February 16 presidential election.
The North East has been a stronghold of President Muhammadu Buhari in the two previous elections – 2011 and 2015.
In the 2011 election, Buhari got 3.6 million of the votes in the North East, that is, 62 per cent. His opponent, Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, who eventually won the overall election, had 1.8 million votes, representing 31 per cent.
Buhari consolidated his popularity in the North East in the 2015 election where he garnered 2.8 million votes, the equivalent of 78 per cent, the highest of his votes after North West which gave him 84 per cent. Jonathan got 796,648 votes, which represented 21 per cent.
Atiku has to swing the tide in the 2019 poll if he must be in a position to wrestle power from Buhari.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), there are 11.2 million voters in the North East. This is how each of the six states will vote.
Borno
Borno is an APC stronghold, one of the states that Buhari will not lose sleep over, even when he has not been able to fulfil his promise of ending the Boko Haram insurgency which has continued to plague them.
In the two previous elections in the state, he swept the majority of the votes with a landslide. In 2011, he polled 77 per cent of the total votes. In 2015, he raised it by 91 per cent.
In 2019, it remains to be seen if regional sentiment can work for Atiku who is from the North East.
But regional sentiment may count for Atiku in Borno because Buhari’s mother is said to be from the Kanuri ethnic stock, the dominant ethnic group in Borno. Buhari’s key security appointments have also favoured the tribe.
Among prominent Kanuri people holding key positions are National Security Adviser, Ali Munguno, Chief of Army Staff, Tukur Buratai, chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Ibrahim Magu, Chief of Staff to the president, Abba Kyari.
But unlike Jonathan, Atiku may likely put up a good showing, especially in Southern Borno, the Christian dominated part which has traditionally voted the PDP. Although its population is not more than 30 per cent.
Yobe
Yobe has traditionally sided with Buhari in all the elections he contested.
In the 2015 poll, Buhari swept 92 per cent of Yobe votes.
But in the 2019 poll, the economic bite and unrelenting activities of Boko Haram insurgency in the state could allow Atiku pinch into Buhari’s basket, albeit insignificant.
Adamawa
Adamawa is Atiku’s home state. Even though Buhari has fanatical supporters in the state, Atiku is expected to make a clean sweep chiefly because it has traditionally sided with the PDP except for the 2015 election.
Even the 2015 election which produced an APC governor for the first time since 1999 in the state, Buhari’s position was 56 per cent with Jonathan taking 38 per cent of the votes. Atiku at the time was a chieftain of the APC.
The reverse scenario had played out in 2011 when Atiku was still in the PDP. Jonathan got 55 per cent of the votes in that election while Buhari came second with 37 per cent of the votes.
In the 2019 election, home support is expected to place Atiku at a more advantaged position.
Bauchi
Bauchi has been consistent in voting Buhari even when it had PDP governors. Now that the APC is ruling the state, plus the defection of two former governors of the PDP to the APC, one of them a former national chairman of the party, Adamu Muazu, Buhari’s grip on the state appears to be total.
However, it is not yet Uhuru for Buhari because the PDP has a staunch politician, Bala Mohammed as its flag bearer who appears to have a large following.
Also, the defection of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara from the APC to the PDP will also have some impact against the APC.
Dogara commands a cult following from his minority Southern Bauchi people who have a history of voting in bloc for the PDP, the exception of which was the 2015 election when Dogara himself was in the APC.
Recently, all the governorship candidates of other political parties in Bauchi apart from the APC came together under one umbrella to defeat the APC-controlled state. Whether that permutation will work remains to be seen as February draws closer.
Buhari is expected to win Bauchi.
Gombe
Buhari is also the man to beat in Gombe judging from his performances in the two previous elections in the state – 2011 and 2015.
In both scenarios, he came top. In 2011, he took 59 per cent of the votes. In 2015, it rose to 77 per cent. But those were elections against an opponent that is not a northerner and not a Muslim.
Buhari may not have it smoothly this time having a Fulani and Muslim as his opponent. The incumbency influence which the PDP enjoys in the state may also bolster Atiku’s chances
The election in Gombe is too close to call.
Taraba
Atiku will carry the day in Taraba. The PDP has since 1999 won the state without failing in the governorship and presidential election. The 2019 election cannot be an exception.
Apart from the PDP votes, the governorship candidate of the United Democratic Party (UDP) in the state, former minister of women Affairs, Aisha Alhassan, has openly supported Atiku.
The herdsmen and farmers clashes will further rob the APC of votes. Communities affected by the crisis have blamed the federal government of siding with the herdsmen. Former Chief of Army Staff, TY Danjuma, a prominent figure from Taraba, has also made a similar allegation.
The factors that could shape the election in Taraba favour Atiku. He is expected to win the state with a landslide.
(North Central analysis is next)