By Titus Oise (Benin City) and Oye Chukwujekwu (Asaba)
Incumbency and its trimmings may fail to tilt the Edo State governorship vote in the column of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with national economic hardship putting it in play for the opposition.
Controversial steps taken by Governor Adams Oshiomhole during the APC primary also add to the chances of a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) determined to return to Government House from where it was displaced in 2008.
The ballot on Saturday, September 10 is about 50/50 between the APC and the PDP, according to a survey of voters conducted by TheNiche.
A loss by the APC may also signal Edo voters’ loss of faith in the policies of the federal government, controlled by the APC, rather than for Oshiomhole or his anointed candidate, Godwin Obaseki.
Obaseki and Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the PDP are the two main candidates in the pack of 10.
Obaseki is the chairman of the Economic Team of Oshiomhole’s government. Ize-Iyamu is former secretary to the Edo State government under Lucky Igbinedion.
Ize-Iyamu, politician to the core
Ize-Iyamu was instrumental to the emergence of Oshiomhole as governor. When Oshiomhole ran for re-election in 2012, he chose him as his campaign director general. Oshiomhole won all the 18 councils.
They later fell out. Ize-Iyamu rejoined the PDP. Ever since, the state has not remained the same because he and Oshiomhole know themselves well.
Ize-Iyamu was a kingmaker in the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which later merged with other parties to form the APC.
But trouble started when he began to nurse governorship ambition, and he left the party when he sensed that Oshiomhole would not support him.
Obaseki, a technocrat
Obaseki is a technocrat and well grounded in business. He is not a politician like Ize-Iyamu. He is riding on the goodwill of Oshiomhole who has upgraded infrastructure in the state.
Besides, Oshiomhole sees the election as a personal challenge because he knows there will be trouble if Ize-Iyamu wins. This he resists.
Their chances
“The way things stand today, it’s 50/50 between the two gladiators (Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu) and everyone knows that in Edo,” one respondent to the survey said.
Obaseki counts on the goodwill of Oshiomhole and the power of incumbency to win.
The state PDP has times without number urged President Muhammadu Buhari to ensure a level playing field for all candidates, because if federal muscle is introduced into the mix, Obaseki may carry the day.
But Ize-Iyamu, being one of the founders of the APC, knows the workings of the party and most of his foot soldiers there are quietly advancing his cause.
To buttress this point, Government House payment vouchers get to the PDP which brandishes them to the public to allege that Oshiomhole’s administration is corrupt.
State PDP Chairman, Dan Orbih, told TheNiche in an interview published on May 8 that “Oshiomhole has borrowed more than any other previous government. He has misused the resources of the state to a level that cannot be imagined.
“He spends between N500 million and N700 million of the security vote in a month, in a state where there is no Boko Haram.”
This sort of allegation has enhanced the campaign of Ize-Iyamu.
More potent is the economic recession which has exacerbated unemployment and inflation in the country.
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed on Wednesday, August 31 that more than 4.5 million people have lost their jobs from May 29, 2015 to date and inflation stands at over 17 per cent, the highest in the country’s history.
Nigerians complain of hardship and hunger, and the PDP promises them respite by saying, “change the change”.
Former Delta State governorship aspirant, Sunny Onuesoke, predicted that the PDP would win the election in Edo based on the non performance of Oshiomhole.
In his view, “the APC’s eight years of governance has nothing to show in Edo State. There is nothing to write home about in terms of development in almost every sector of the economy in Edo State.
“Most roads in the heart of Benin City, like other major towns in the state, are in their worst state.”
Edo State Deputy Governor, Pius Odubu, insisted at a campaign rally in Orhionmwon that Obaseki is the man to beat.
“Obaseki, who is coming to take over from … Oshiomhole, has said he will provide stable electricity. He was able to do roads, he will fix the light ….
“You should not allow the PDP to tell you what they are not capable of doing. We in the APC are in this town and we will develop the area to the fullest.”
But Obaseki’s candidacy is also an issue. He is seen as a stooge to Oshiomhole.
Critics frown at the situation where Oshiomhole takes all the time to speak at campaigns and gives little time for Obaseki to sell himself to the public.
The thinking is that a win for Obaseki is Oshiomhole’s third term.
Ize-Iyamu has his own baggage, too. He is criticised heavily for his prominent role during the eight-year administration of Igbinedion, which achieved little or nothing.
This is a big albatross for Ize-Iyamu and may be the reason why Igbinedion has not publicly identified with his campaign, even though he pulls the strings behind the scenes.