Editor, Politics/Features, EMEKA ALEX DURU, examines the factors and issues in the October 11 governorship bye-election in Adamawa State.
Following the release of the timetable for Adamawa State governorship bye-election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the tempo of political engagement in the state has been on the rise.
The contest is scheduled for Saturday, October 11, 2014.
According to the timetable, the last day for submission of Forms CF002, CF001 and nomination forms at the INEC headquarters is September 17.
It also states that September 29 will be the last day for publication of personal particulars of candidates (CF001), while October 9 is the last day for electioneering.
The commission said the election is as a result of the impeachment and termination of the tenure of Murtala Nyako as governor of the state on July 15.
Nyako as whipping boy
Since its victory in the June 21 Ekiti State governorship election, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has not hidden its agenda of coasting home to victory at the 2015 general election by increasing the number of states under its control from the present 19 to 28.
The party had claimed that in achieving its expansionist intention, it was already strategising on deepening its internal democracy. However, more than what the party advertised as its strategy in widening its reach, developments in states with All Progressives Congress (APC) governors but under PDP-controlled legislature, rather prove that the party may have another agenda than its mantra of internal democracy.
It was in that respect that Nyako became the first to go down in the obvious rat-race. After weeks of tension and intense political intrigues, the Adamawa House of Assembly on Tuesday, July 15, impeached him, following his indictment by the seven-man investigative panel which probed him over a 16-count charge bordering on gross misconduct and financial mismanagement.
Bala James Ngilari, Nyako’s deputy, who was to have been removed with him, had allegedly rushed in a resignation letter, announcing that he was quitting office.
Fintiri Umar
Following the resignation of Ngilari, the Speaker, Umar Fintiri, was sworn in as the acting governor.
This is in line with Section 191(2) of the 1999 Constitution. The Section states: “Where any vacancy occurs in the circumstances mentioned in subsection (1) of this section during a period when the office of Deputy Governor of the State is also vacant, the Speaker of the House of Assembly of the state shall hold the office of Governor of the State for a period not more than three months, during which there shall be an election of a new governor of the state who shall hold office for the unexpired term of office of the last holder of the office.”
Strategising for battle
It is in line with the constitutional prescription that INEC has called for the bye-election. On paper, the exercise is open to all the registered political parties in the state. However, there are indications that it is a straight race between the PDP and the APC.
None of the parties is leaving anything to chance in the titanic race. Aside each of the parties seizing the opportunity of the election to stamp authority on the control of Adamawa politics, the contest is in many ways seen as dress rehearsal for what to expect in the 2015 general election. The PDP, which has been beating its chest on the decisive move by its foot soldiers in the Adamawa Assembly in undoing Nyako, has been upbeat for the October poll.
Part of its preparedness for the encounter was in releasing its guidelines for the exercise, which stipulated that the last day for the collection of forms was August 19, while the deadline for the submission was August 20. Screening of aspirants is August 28 and appeals on the outcome of the screening would be entertained on August 30.
The ward congresses to select the delegates for the election are slated for September 1, while the appeal is slated for September 3. Also, the state congress to determine the governorship candidate of the party is slated for September 6, while appeal on the outcome is slated for September 8.
By the close of work last Friday, nine aspirants were known to have indicated interest for the plum job on the platform of the party. These include former Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu; Acting Governor, Umaru Fintiri; former Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) Executive Secretary, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo; immediate past Presidential Special Adviser on Political Matters, Ahmed Gulak; former governorship aspirant, Marcus Gundiri; ex-Lagos Military Administrator, Mohammed Buba Marwa; a former presidential aide, Dr. Umaru Ardo; Minister of State for Health, Dr. Idi Hong; and son of former PDP National Chairman, Auwal Tukur.
APC has equally indicated interest and readiness for the encounter. Even when the party had cried blue murder in the manner and circumstances under which Nyako was removed and had threatened court action on the matter, it has expressed the desire to participate in the October bye-election.
The party’s position was contained in a communique issued at the end of a two-day stakeholders meeting of the party on Saturday, August 16. It contended that its participation was “with a view to reclaiming the stolen mandate of the party”.
The APC urged all members to be united and reconcile with one another for the success of the party.
The communique, read by the party’s Public Relations Officer (PRO) in the state, Phineas Padio, said the leadership of Adamawa APC had agreed to embrace the political reality in the state.
“The APC regrets the unfortunate removal of Nyako. The party also resolved that while the pending legal issues subsist, the party’s leadership has agreed to embrace the existing reality.
Among chieftains the APC that had expressed interest in the race were former member of the House of Representatives, Emmanuel Bello; Senator Ahmed Hassan Barata, who represents Adamawa South district; Senator Bindawa Jibrilla, representing Adamawa Central; and former Director-General of National Boundary Commission (NBC), Dahiru Bobo. All the aspirants are to be screened by the party, while those who are dissatisfied with the outcome would face the appeal committee.
Bello, who picked his form at the national secretariat of the APC, said he was ready for the party’s primary and that he was confident of getting the party’s nomination.
Testing the PDP, APC
On the surface, APC aspirants are not those that can easily attract national attention. But considering that two of the contenders are senators and are aspiring for a position that is essentially local in character, they cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand.
Besides, until the July 15 impeachment of Nyako, many things had pointed to the direction of the party stamping its feet on the state’s politics.
Aside the so-called incumbency factor, which the party had enjoyed in Nyako in determining the state of affairs in Adamawa, it is known to have, within the time under consideration, established enough structures that it had hoped to draw from in subsequent encounters.
The Atiku factor
The presence of the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, in APC is another factor the APC can leverage on. In fact, until Atiku and former President Olusegun Obasanjo got entangled in a suffocating feud in the build-up to the 2003 general election, the political clout of the former number two citizen had loomed large across the country.
Drawing immensely from the political craftsmanship and extensive network of his mentor, the late Shehu Yar’Adua, the Turaki Adamawa had at the onset of the current political dispensation sent signals of being among the politicians to reckon with in the land. Launching himself on the wings of the then Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), the leadership of which he inherited following the death of Shehu Yar’Adua, he clearly emerged as a strong factor in defining the tempo of PDP politics.
When eventually he left the governorship election that he had easily won in Adamawa for a vice presidential slot, it was seen as an attempt at marketing his intimidating credentials at the national level. Even then, it was taken for granted that he was the undisputed leader of the state’s politics. However, when his battle with Obasanjo began to take turns for the worse, enormous efforts were deployed by the highly vindictive former president to shoot down his towering influence.
Subsequent developments saw the Turakin Adamawa shuttling between PDP and the opposition. He had left the party in 2007 for the then Action Congress (AC). Atiku later returned to his original base after a failed bid for the presidency at the general election of that year. Apparently feeling shortchanged at developments leading to the 2011 presidential primaries of PDP, he went solo and waited for the formation of APC before his last exit.
Keen watchers of Adamawa politics see the October 11 poll as an opportunity for him to bounce back and prove that he remains the lord of the state’s politics.
This, incidentally, is not a crown PDP would allow him to pick without enormous challenge. In the first instance, Adamawa is a traditional PDP enclave. Most of the leading politicians from the state are known to have had stints with the party or are still in its fold. Even Atiku, Tukur and Nyako are products of the platform. So also are Marwa, Ribadu and Senator Jibril Aminu, among others.
Angling for Nyako’s job
It is against this backdrop that many see whoever that emerges PDP candidate as almost getting close to clinching the job. Going by media profile, Ribadu, Marwa and Fintiri appear to lead the pack.
Ribadu – As chairman on EFCC, Ribadu made his mark and name. Established under the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (Establishment) Act, 2004, the body has among other functions the investigation of all financial crimes, including advance fee fraud, money laundering, counterfeiting, illegal charge transfers, futures market fraud, fraudulent encashment of negotiable instruments, computer credit fraud and contract scam. It is also empowered to examine and investigate all reported cases of economic and financial crimes with a view to identifying individuals, corporate bodies or groups involved.
Given the initial success of the commission in reining in advance fee criminals and other strings of achievements, Ribadu and his colleagues were lionised.
The former EFCC boss rode on the wings of the assumed national acclaim to go for the presidential ticket of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011. The outing, however, turned out a fiasco as he failed to make reasonable impact at the poll. Aside the allegation that he was traded off by ACN bigwigs for some deals with Jonathan, many saw his humiliation as payback for his willingness to play the odious role of attack dog against Obasanjo’s opponents in his EFCC days.
There are, in fact, insinuations that even in his current sojourn in PDP, he may end up being sent on a wild goose chase in his quest for the party’s governorship ticket.
Marwa – Witty, profoundly educated and urbane, Marwa comes on board with tremendous national appeal, having served the country in various positions including as High Commissioner to South Africa. The snag with him, however, is that, as Atiku, he has freely moved in and out of PDP in such a manner that critics readily dismiss him as an opportunist.
In fact, by the close of the week, huge fears hung around Ribadu and Marwa’s aspiration, as PDP was reportedly silent on the waiver requests from them. The waiver is for them to be eligible to run on the ticket of the party, having not been members before now.
Professor of Virology and former Minister of Petroleum, Tam David-West, believes that the chances of Ribadu and Marwa are slim in the governorship election.
He said: “Okay, he (Ribadu) has defected, hopefully to get the ticket to contest the Adamawa State governorship election? All these people who are defecting, what are their chances? Their chances are slim.
“Ribadu is a great name. Marwa is a great name. But can they achieve their dream in the PDP? Their chances are slim. Why? There are some PDP people that have been there, nursing that ambition. You don’t come from outside and impose your ambition on them. They will tell you that the governorship is not for sale. They are going to be faced with credibility and integrity problems. And their enemies in the PDP will use it against them. Their enemies outside PDP will also exploit that against them.
“There is another thing they have to consider. Nyako, who was removed as governor of Adamawa through spurious means, still has his supporters and sympathisers. Nyako’s supporters are still there, still licking their wound.”
Finitri – The above factors may, perhaps, clear the coast for Fintiri. Last week, while picking his nomination, the acting governor had insisted that he should be given the ticket, saying his performance should fetch him the prize.
In apparent show of solidarity, Fintiri was accompanied on the occasion by all 25 members of the House of Assembly. He said: “My performance as acting governor in less than two months has shown to all, especially the people of Adamawa State, that if I continue for another six months, the dividends of democracy will reach all and sundry.”
INEC has assured of free and fair conduct of the poll.