By Ishaya Ibrahim, News Editor
For some analysts, the thing that is certain in the Edo State governorship election on Saturday, September 19, is that nothing is certain.
For some, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Osagie Ize-Iyamu, has a better chance of clinching the votes. For others, the stake favours the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) standard-bearer, Godwin Obaseki.
Perhaps, there is one thing that is certain in the election then. Only the votes will determine the winner. The two major candidates, one, a serving governor who enjoys the power of incumbency, the other an astute politician who has the privilege of the federal government’s support, are well established. In Nigeria, that may be all that one needs to win an election.
How popular are they?
On September 13, the two candidates – Obaseki and Ize-Iyamu – featured in a debate to test their intellectual capacity for the job.
A twitter poll on who performed better in the debate was later conducted by a public policy expert, Dr Joe Abah, on his timeline.
At the time of writing this article, 19,092 people have voted in the poll, with Obaseki having an approval rating of 70.5 per cent, while Ize-Iyamu trailed behind by 29.5 per cent.
But again polls in Nigeria determine nothing. In the last two elections which Muhammadu Buhari contested as Nigeria’s president, and the re-election into the same office, he avoided debates, yet he won.
Obaseki is also more popular on the internet sphere than Ize-Iyamu. But that again means little in Nigeria’s election because the majority of the voters are offline, just as the election will also be offline.
Google Trends (a feature on Google search engine that shows the popularity of a search term), puts Obaseki 80 per cent ahead of Ize-Iyamu. But again, popularity may have little or no impact on the final result tally.
For many political analysts, what would determine the final victory for either of the two candidates is hinged on their acceptability or otherwise in the three senatorial zones that make up the state – Edo North, Edo South and Edo Central.
Edo North
Edo North is the home of former governor Adams Oshiomhole who seems to have more at stake in the election because his continuous political relevance hangs on the victory of the APC candidate, Ize–Iyamu.
Oshiomhole, who lost out as APC national chairman, would not want to lose control of his home politics. He would mobilize everything for Ize-Iyamu to clinch Edo North.
Ize-Iyamu also has a higher chance in Edo North because his deputy, Audu Abudu Ganiyu, is also from that base. So, analysts believe that the APC may likely win Edo North. But such win may not be substantial because the PDP deputy governorship candidate, Philip Shuaibu, is also from that zone, and has been causing some disquiet for Oshiomhole in that area.
Also, Edo North is an amalgam of many ethnic groups, with each having their varied interests. This factor may not allow for an overwhelming victory for the APC.
Edo South
The two major governorship candidates are from Edo South, the area consisting of Benin and the others, and is cosmopolitan, reflecting all the diversity in the state. Voting pattern may reflect such diversity too.
The APC and PDP have strong supporters in the area and are likely to be neck and neck in this zone.
The votes for each of the candidates in Edo South could be substantially at par. So, this area is too close to call.
Edo Central
Here, in Edo Central, which is the Esan speaking part of the state, the PDP appears to have an advantage. The area is monolithic and likely to have a predictable voting pattern.
Oshiomhole had dethroned one of their kings three days before he left office in 2016. Obaseki reinstated him to the throne. The people have not forgotten this incident.
But Oshiomhole had recently tried to make reconciliation, begging the chiefs to overlook the past. How far such can go, remains to be seen on the voting day. But at the end of the count, the PDP may come out tops in this area.
In the permutation for the election, therefore, Edo South may be evenly split for the two candidates. So, how big APC wins Edo North or PDP wins Edo Central will be the final determinant of the winner of the poll.
But in Nigeria, the votes alone don’t determine a winner. Rigging plays a major role.