Head, News Desk, VICTOR EBIMOMI, analyses the gale of defection by prominent South West PDP figures to APC, attributing it to the perceived President Goodluck Jonathan-Olusegun Obasanjo face-off.
President Goodluck Jonathan
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the South West appears to be encountering membership depletion that, many fear, may eat deep into its stronghold in the region. Last week Monday, what many political watchers thought was impossible happened when Segun Oni, former governor of Ekiti State and erstwhile National Vice Chairman (South West), dumped the party and pitched tents with the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC).
With that singular act, it is apparent that the defection train has just taken off in the region, with the final destination difficult to predict.
Some political analysts are even of the opinion that the gale of defection to come may have the trademark of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan feud which APC is likely to reap from. There are insinuations that Obasanjo is having favourable disposition towards the party.
In almost all the states in the zone, PDP is feeling the APC pull. For instance, in Osun State, speculations are rife that the PDP is shaking because it may soon probably lose some heavyweights. The likes of former Governors Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Isiaka Adeleke, as well as their supporters, are said to be considering dumping the party for APC. Adeleke was billed to quit the party by weekend, while Oyinlola is said not to have finally made up his mind.
However, the visit of Governor Rauf Aregbesola to Oyinlola in his Okuku hometown recently to felicitate with him has lent credence to the effect that something might be in the offing. Before now, the duo had not been known to have good rapport. Aregbesola it was who chased Oyinlola out of government house through the court.
Besides, what might make the likes of Oyinlola reluctant to work for Senator Iyiola Omisore as PDP candidate could be because he is regarded more as Jonathan’s loyalist and was also alleged to be in cahoots with those who removed Oyinlola as PDP National Secretary.
As for Adeleke, there is no doubt that his decision to dump the party is not unconnected with the humiliation he suffered during the party primaries which made him to withdraw.
In Oyo State, the trajectory is taking same pattern. There are feelers that prominent party members such as former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala and some others considered as Obasanjo men may be on their way out of the party.
Ogun State chapter is already feeling the heat because of the schism occasioned by the struggle for the soul of the party between Obasanjo and Buruji Kashamu, who is seen as Jonathan’s die-hard.
Kashamu was alleged to have also played direct role in the plot that eventually led to Oni and Oyinlola, the two Obasanjo men, being removed from the national leadership of the PDP, to make himself most powerful in South West PDP.
Perhaps, as a sign that things might not really work well for the party in the South West in general and Ogun in particular, Obasanjo loyalists were said to have developed soft spot for APC and Governor Ibikunle Amosun. Obasanjo, it was gathered, appears to have been showing open love and preference for Amosun in his bid for the second term, based on what some say is the governor’s performance.
Thus, given the unfolding drama in South West PDP, it is doubtful if Obasanjo’s group has not finally resolved not to be in the same camp with those of Jonathan’s. It is estimated that if this happens, the implication could be devastating for the party in the region. This is because Obasanjo remains a powerful force in the area, being a former president and chairman Board of Trustees (BoT) of PDP.
Besides, all the past PDP governors in the region were literally made by him. From Adebayo Alao-Akala of Oyo, Olagunsoye Oyinlola of Osun, Gbenga Daniel of Ogun, the late Olusegun Agagu of Ondo to Ayodele Fayose and Oni of Ekiti, ascendancy to office was through Obasanjo when he was the president between 1999 and 2007. The former president also ensured PDP virtually had total control of the South West, except Lagos, from 2003 to 2007.
Apart from Fayose who at a point had issues with Obasanjo and was eventually impeached, it is strongly believed in many quarters, they still remain strong loyalists of the former president.
Thus, the trend of defection in the months ahead is likely going to show very clearly that the battle line has been drawn between those loyal to the former president and the incumbent.
Equally, given that those in Obasanjo’s group seem to be losing their influence in the PDP with unusual speed, the only option available, some analysts believe, could be for them to work with the APC, which is the ruling party in the South West.
The thinking is that rather than let the PDP dominate the region, since the party has allegedly been hijacked by Jonathan’s men, which will mean a humiliation to their mentor, they would prefer to work for victory to APC.
And if this happens, the analysts say, it could have potential beneficial effect for them in the long run by giving them the privilege of controlling some of the key positions in the South West states and by extension bounce back into political relevance.