By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Americans voting early now number 71 million in a presidential ballot that is a referendum on keeping or rejecting Donald Trump, whose actions in four years in the White House alienate the majority to benefit a few – himself and his cronies.
Democratic Joe Biden is in the lead by 2 to 1 in the early count because more Democrats and their leaners are voting early, by mail or in person.
Team Trump is hoping the tally changes on Election Day on November 3 when more Republican voters say they will cast their ballots, but Biden’s head start may remain insurmountable going by the electoral map this cycle.
Biden is doing an average 10 percentage points better than Trump in national polls and is tied or leading in 10 swing states Trump carried in 2016.
The 10 states with their Electoral College votes are
1. Arizona (11)
2. Florida (29)
3. Georgia (16)
4. Iowa (6)
5. Michigan (16)
6. North Carolina (15)
7. Ohio (18)
8. Pennsylvania (20)
9. Texas (38)
10. Wisconsin (10)
Texas is traditionally red; Trump may retain it and a few others among the 10.
The biggest fish up for catch is Florida, the swingiest of swing states. Al Gore lost it in 2000 and it cost him the White House.
Barack Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012. Hillary Clinton lost it to Trump in 2016.
For weeks running, however, Biden has been at least 2 points ahead of Trump in opinion polls in Florida. If Biden keeps all the states Clinton won in 2016, then grabs Florida and a few more states in the 10 battlegrounds, he is home and dry.
High turnout expected on Election Day
The record early voting fuels expectations that this year’s presidential election on November 3 could lead to a turnout of 150 million or 65 per cent of registered voters, the highest since 1908, says the United States Elections Project.
In 2016, around 58.3 million pre-election ballots were cast, including ballots in the three vote-by-mail states that year, according to a CNN analysis. That early vote accounted for about 42 per cent of all ballots cast in 2016.
Voters have already cast more early votes during this presidential campaign than they did in all of 2016 when they passed the 47 million mark earlier this month.
The 71 million tally is the latest sign of intense interest in the contest between Trump and Biden, as well as voters’ desire to reduce their risk of exposure to COVID-19, which has killed more than 225,000 people across the U.S.
Democrats hold a significant advantage in early voting due to their embrace of mail balloting, which Republicans have historically cast in large numbers but have shunned amid repeated and unfounded attacks by Trump who says the system is prone to widespread fraud.
The high level of early voting has led Michael McDonald, the University of Florida professor who administers the U.S. Elections Project, to predict a record turnout of about 150 million, representing 65 per cent of those eligible to vote.
A survey of election officials in all 50 states and Washington, DC by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist shows that pre-Election Day voting is skyrocketing nationwide during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
States are reporting record-breaking turnout as voters are energised to vote by mail or early in person before November 3.
Detailed voter information comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organisations and is giving insights into who is voting before November.
By Monday, 54 per cent of those votes already cast this cycle comes from CNN’s 16 most competitively ranked states, which will play a crucial role in determining who wins the presidency this year.
Among those states, Minnesota has currently seen the largest percentage increase in early voting turnout compared to last cycle, according to Catalist data from both years in 14 key states.
By age, younger voters (age 18-29) are also casting significantly more ballots and make up a greater share of the pre-Election Day vote than they did around the same time four years ago in all of the key states with information available.