Special Correspondent, JULIUS ALABI, takes a look at factors and forces that may determine the shape of 2016 governorship election in Ondo.
There is palpable fear that the touted zoning arrangement for the 2016 governorship election in Ondo State may not work, after all. This is particularly within the ranks of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Outcome of the last general election in the state has, more than any other factor, given vent to this fear. This has generated fresh arguments in the party on which part of the state should produce the next governor. Indigenes of Ondo South Senatorial District, particularly Ese-odo and Ileoluji/Okeigbo local governments are, for instance, making strong cases for the seat.
In the process, many aspirants from the zone have shown their interest in contesting for the position. This is also as party faithful from Ondo North are equally showing keen interest in the job. What aspirants from Ondo are essentially banking on for their aspiration is their voting power, which they say would change the political situation in the state. Akure indigenes are also not left out in the race.
In the ensuing struggle, it had earlier been rumoured that Governor Olusegun Mimiko had interest in Gbenga Elegbeleye, the Director-General of National Sports Commission (NSC) to succeed him. Though this had remained in the realm of speculation, analysts see the move as a strategy by the governor to tactically extend his administration beyond 2016.
But with the interest shown by Kingsley Kuku, the former Special Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan on Niger Delta Affairs and Chairman of the Presidential Amnesty Programme (PAP), the permutation appears to have changed. In the same vein, the zoning arraignment seems to have changed completely from Ondo North to Ondo South. This is considering the fact that Kuku delivered over 24,000 votes in Ese-Odo Local Government Area to the party during the March 28 and April 11 national and state elections in the state.
He is also a formidable grassroots mobiliser with great followership. If he combines his efforts with other PDP leaders in the state, there will be a great battle in 2016 gubernatorial election in the state, it has been argued.
There are insinuations that Mimiko may be forced to pick Kuku, given that the former presidential adviser had always been there for him. Kuku’s supporters argue, for example, that when most of the old PDP members were busy defecting to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), he stood his ground and gave the governor the needed support.
Perhaps, in what was seen as a way of proving to Kuku that he had not endorsed either Elegbeleye or anybody as being rumoured in some quarters, Mimiko attended the thanksgiving service organised for him by his kinsmen at Arogbo town in the riverine area of the state.
Again, since the last dismal outing of the PDP in the presidential elections in the state, especially in Ondo North, nothing has been heard of Elegbeleye’s governorship ambition. The aspirant has also not been seen anywhere near the government house.
On occasions, Mimiko had remarked: “It is only God who knows tomorrow and ordains leaders. Yes, as a human being, I must have interest in who comes after me; but it is only God who can choose for us. God will give us the right person that will continue the good things we have started for the good of our people; someone who will make the people his priority, make life better for them and even better than what we have done.”
This notwithstanding, enlightened observers swear that he already has his mind somewhere, apparently in Ondo South.
This may not be without reasons. In the heat of what appeared as the near collapse of the governor’s political empire in the last presidential election, the people of Ondo South gave his PDP full support that culminated in the only senator that emerged on the party’s platform from the state. APC has two senators in persons of Senator Ajayi Boroffice for the Ondo North and Tayo Alasoadua from Ondo Central. PDP has Yele Omogunwa, a pastor. In the House of Representatives, APC has five seats, while PDP has four.
It is against this backdrop that supporters of Kuku argue that this is the time for Mimiko to reciprocate his gestures by supporting him to realise his governorship ambition. They also argue that the former presidential aide is at home with his Ijaw kinsmen.
Whether the permutation would work out, however, remains a matter of conjecture. This is especially as Ondo is a very unique state when it comes to voting at elections. The people, for one, are well known for casting protest votes. Mimiko, incidentally, has had a taste of this unique voting orientation. Apart from his dogged efforts at transforming the state in terms of infrastructure and human resource development, improvement on the educational sector of the state as well as attending to their needs, all of which positioned him as a governor well commended by the people, at the end of the day, he was dumped by the same people who were not convinced he ever meant well for them when he imposed many candidates on them in the last general elections.
The governor, it is believed, may have learnt his lessons. Thus, analysts are in agreement that, all things considered, he would most likely deliver the state to the PDP. The surprising come-back of the party in the April 11 House of Assembly election in the state is counted as an indication that the governor is still a force to reckon with in Ondo politics.
APC is also not without its own joker as the 2016 encounter draws near. There are expectations on the party picking its flag-bearer from Ondo North where the former deputy governor, Alli Olanusi, hails from. This is an area that is considered the stronghold of the party in the state. The hunch many have for the party, however, is that whoever wins its ticket among the aspirants will literally be contesting against Mimiko and not who clinches the PDP nomination. That, again, is if the governor remains in the PDP, given the speculation that he is planning to take another flight to his former Labour Party (LP).