Assistant Politics Editor, DANIEL KANU, examines chances of the APC with the choice of its vice presidential candidate, Professor Yemi Osinbajo.
After protracted consultations, powerplay and hard bargaining, the All Progressives Congress (APC) finally settled for Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and former Lagos State Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, as running mate to its presidential standard-bearer, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.).
Buhari emerged the APC candidate in a keenly-contested primary and will again be running against President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling PDP. Both first met in the 2011 elections.
In arriving at Osinbajo’s choice, Buhari spent considerable time and held several meetings in a manner almost reminiscent of the trouble the late Moshood Abiola went through before he could choose his running mate for the 1993 presidential election for similar reasons of religion and geo-politics.
TheNiche gathered that since the conclusion of the APC convention on Thursday, December 11, there were intense horsetrading and intrigues by different interest groups within the party to produce Osinbajo, a pastor in The Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG).
Many names had initially been thrown up, considering what were considered their clout and electoral values in the party. Among these was Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi. The thinking was that given his performance scorecard, which is said to be above average, and the voting power of Rivers that is considerably huge, Amaechi stood in good stead to give the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a serious run in the South South where President Jonathan hails from. His surname, which presents him as Igbo, was also thought to be a good factor that would see him appealing to voters in the South East as well.
The name of Edo State Governor, Adams Oshiomhole, also popped up at a time. What was counted in his favour was essentially the national name recognition that he acquired in his days in Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) presidency. His performance index that seems commendable and mass appeal were also thought as qualities that would see him through.
Former Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi, also received mention among those favoured for the slot. What, however, counted against him, was his loss to Ayodele Fayose of PDP in the June 21 governorship election in the state. The thinking, therefore, was that if as a sitting governor he could not earn a re-election, taking him to higher office would mean a huge gamble for the party.
It was against these permutations that Osinbajo surprisingly emerged. His emergence was said to be at the instance of former Lagos governor, Bola Tinubu, who, in a statement on Thursday, claimed that Buhari had earlier offered him the ticket which he turned down.
Between Osinbajo and Sambo
With Osinbajo partnering Buhari, the APC team for the presidential race has taken shape. Earlier, President Jonathan, while accepting his nomination as PDP flag-bearer, had appointed Vice President, Namadi Sambo, as his running mate.
The two running mates, on the surface, come on board as technocrats to complement the efforts of presidential flag-bearers. They had also had stints at the state level before their national assignment. Sambo, who is coming in for second term in the office, had been Kaduna State governor before being invited to the presidency by Jonathan. He is a professional, in fact, an architect.
Osinbajo, a lawyer, had held office as Lagos Justice Commissioner under the Tinubu administration. On the basis of their exposure and influence, they are expected to turn in their goodwill and network of followership to the electoral advantage of their parties.
Running mates and electoral fortunes
But there incidentally lies the complexity of the expectation from them. The history of Nigeria’s electoral democracy is not rich on running mates adding much to the fortunes of their parties. In the Second Republic of 1979 to 1983, for instance, Shehu Shagari and Dr. Alex Ekwueme had paired for the presidential ticket of the then National Party of Nigeria (NPN). The party recorded huge showing in Shagari’s North West but did not have impressive outing in Ekwueme’s South East. In General Ibrahim Babangida’s transition programme, even with Sylvester Ugo as running mate to Bashir Tofa of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC), the party did not register much impact in the South. It rather caved in to the intimidating following of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) that had Abiola as its presidential candidate with Baba Gana Kingibe as running mate.
In the current dispensation, Buhari, variously as presidential candidate of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), had, at instances, paired with Chuba Okadigbo, Edwin Ume-Ezeoke, Mike Ahamba and, lately, Tunde Bakare. But at no time had he recorded appreciable impact in the South.
This is the burden, analysts say, the two presidential running mates would face. For Sambo, perhaps, running with a sitting president, the task before him may not be high. But then, he has the North, where he, like Buhari, comes from, to contend with.
With Sokoto, Kano, Zamfara, Kwara and Nasarawa under APC column either by election or defection of the governors from PDP, he has a lot in his hands. Even in his Kaduna backyard where his rating is reportedly not too impressive, a huge task of delivering the state lies before him. What will make the job more tedious for him is the challenge of Nasir el-Rufai, former Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, who is running for governorship of the state on the platform of APC. Other states in the North present varying challenges.
Osinbajo faces similar task in the South, if not more. With his party, APC, perhaps, unwittingly chiselling the South East and South South from its presidential calculations, the two zones would readily be up for grabs by the PDP. Delivering the South West may also not be a done deal for him, as some assume. Osun and Ogun may present him with relative ease, given the influence of the governors in the states. In Ekiti, for instance, given the crushing defeat the party suffered in the hand of PDP on the June 21 governorship election, it may be safe to assume that APC had been rejected there. Its foothold in neighbouring Ondo also remains tenuous, given the grassroots influence of the governor, Olusegun Mimiko, who recently collapsed his intimidating Labour Party (LP) structure into PDP while crossing over to the party.
Developments in Oyo where PDP’s Teslim Folarin, former Senate leader; Accord Party (AP)’s Rasheed Ladoja; former governor and LP’s Adebayo Alao-Akala are squaring up against Governor Abiola Ajimobi do not seem favourable for APC. Even in Lagos that had been taken for granted as APC base, the rise of a new order that is seriously posing a menace to the Tinubu tendency presents a huge challenge to APC. In the unfolding development, Jimi Agbaje, the governorship candidate of PDP, offers a new face of Lagos against Akinwunmi Ambode that aptly represents Tinubu’s existing order. Public outcry on the perceived suffocating grip of the former governor on the state’s politics as well as the unusual harmony in the state chapter of PDP are considerations that make 2015 politics of the state dicey. They also make the race more demanding for Osinbajo, who, incidentally, is not seen as a career politician.
Vice presidents and the Nigerian Constitution
Attempts have been made to explain the weak influences of running mates on the electoral fortunes of their parties to the country’s constitutional provisions which limit the role of deputies to the sentiments and dispositions of their principals.
The executive functions of a Nigerian vice president, going by the constitution, include participation in all cabinet meetings and, by statute, membership in the National Security Council (NSC), National Defence Council (NDC), Federal Executive Council (FEC), and the Chairman of National Economic Council.
Although the vice president may take an active role in establishing policy in the executive branch by serving on such committees and councils, the relative power of the office holder depends on the duties delegated to him by the president.
Experts in international relations argue that the trend here is in contrast to the advanced democracies where the deputies are also men and women who can comfortably steer the ship of state in the absence of their principals.
Osinbajo in the eye of PDP
PDP has expectedly dismissed the choice of Osinbajo, declaring that his emergence, six days after APC convention, was a confirmation of its stand that the party was the personal project of a cabal commanded by Tinubu, to expand its political and economic frontiers.
The party noted further that Tinubu was going to impose his mercantilist interest on major decisions affecting the entire country, if APC had any opportunity to preside over the country.
PDP, in a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Olisa Metuh said: “Should power get to this cabal who is desperate to control the political and economic power centre of the nation, then Nigeria is finished.”
The statement also noted “By the choice of Osinbajo, a well-known acolyte of Tinubu, who served under him as Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, the APC, Buhari and Tinubu have boldly re-created their well-known notoriety for sectional and personal interests.
“It is particularly worrisome that Buhari has surrendered his first official responsibility of choosing a running mate, invariably his powers, to Tinubu, even before he goes to the field to ask for votes.
“This is not surprising of Buhari, who has consistently exhibited a track record of incompetence. This is the same man who, as military head of state, surrendered all his powers to his second-in-command. The story of his headship of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) is not different, as he also got lost before the flurry of portfolios of paid consultants.
“In 2011, as the leader of the CPC, Buhari failed woefully. His whimsical interference in the choice of candidates for his party not only muddled up the process but ended up creating an electoral malfeasance and confusion that eased out federal lawmakers elected on the platform of the CPC from his native Katsina State.”
APC thinks differently
Apparently disagreeing with Metuh, Lagos chapter of APC said that with the emergence of Osinbajo, the change train that will end the harrowing PDP’s reign of corruption, ineptitude and corruption is now complete.
Its Publicity Secretary, Joe Igbokwe, stated: “Coming exactly a week after the completion of the APC’s presidential primaries in Lagos, the choice of Osinbajo reflects the demand of Nigerians for a credible, untainted, committed and competent team that will be trusted to end the reign of mediocrity and corruption that has wrecked Nigeria for 16 horrible years.
“The choice itself, and the general acceptance, finally puts a seal on those that have desperately been sowing expectations of crisis and division in APC, as a needed tonic for their continued stay in power.”
For Senator Bukola Saraki, former Kwara State governor, the emergence of Osinbajo is a good omen and shows APC’s commitment to fairness and equality.
“A professor of Law, a well-ranked academics and a committed pastor of unquestionable integrity from South West Nigeria further attests to the commitment of the APC to fairness and equality,” Saraki noted in a statement through his media aide, Bamikole Omisore.