By Emeka Alex Duru
Few days to the February 16 presidential elections, large crowds at campaign grounds and endorsement of the two leading presidential candidates – President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by various interest groups, are the two remarkable factors heralding the contest. In the absence of ideology-driven blueprint if elected to office, the two parties have essentially relied on their ability to assemble crowds – real or rented – and endorsements from different segments and organisations, to advertise their relevance. Thus flying the decoy of large crowds and perceived backings by groups, the candidates have not really given the voters specific programmes on how they intend to reposition the country.
Consequently, the success of any of the outings by any of the candidates and his measure of acceptance, is not based on the content of his manifesto but on the volume of attendance at rallies and campaign grounds. In the process, no firm commitments are made from the candidates as they go into the election.
The way it was
Ordinarily, large turn-outs at rallies by a contestant, should serve as a guide to his measure of acceptability by the electorate. Before his death, foremost nationalist and journalist, MCK Ajuluchukwu, had in a session, told this reporter that in the First Republic, the quality of attendance at rallies for a candidate and his subsequent endorsement by interest groups were all that his opponent needed to ascertain before campaigning in a particular area with him or not. The trend, he added, continued in the Second Republic. This, he said, informed why the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), where he was the director of research and publicity, did not dissipate so much of its energy in the South East, since handlers of the party knew from one or two outings that it was really not accepted in the area. This was even when the UPN leader and presidential candidate, late Obafemi Awolowo, had picked his running mate, Philip Umeadi, an accomplished lawyer from the zone.
In similar vein, he narrated, it was clear to the Nnamdi Azikiwe – led Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP), even with late Adeniran Ogunsanya, from the South West as its national chairman, that it did not stand so much chance of making great impacts in the region. The gain in the exercise, he recalled, was that outcomes of the election in such areas, were more or less, predictable.
Crowds – real or rented?
Given the changes in time and attitude of voters, such may not be the case now. But one thing that was easily established at the period was that the crowds at campaign grounds, were essentially genuine supporters of a particular party or those that attended to know what the party had to offer if elected into office. In such instances, the crowds were manageable.
The situation has considerably changed in the current dispensation. The trend now is the campaign ground of the parties being filled with attendants that far outnumber the entire registered voters in the area but eventually fall short of figures recorded at elections. Pat Nwabunnia, a political scientist and public opinion analyst, attributes the unsavoury development to poverty, corruption and inadequate voter education. The extreme poverty in the land, he said, has so much affected the sense of judgement by some Nigerians that with just any amount of money thrown at them, they will be readily available to rent for campaigns. “This explains why, some members of the crowd do not even know the name of the particular candidate they are paid to support”, he noted.
Enter the endorsements
The trend of support equally shows in the flurry of endorsements for the presidential candidates. Last Monday, for instance, 71 retired generals drawn from the Army, Navy and Air Force, endorsed the re-election bid of President Buhari. The generals who were led by former military administrator of Lagos State, Brigadier General Buba Marwa, who also heads the Presidential Advisory Committee on elimination of drug abuse in the country, explained that the endorsement was on account of his fulfillment of all the promises he made while campaigning in 2015.
Marwa said; “As an officer and a gentleman, his word is his bond. After winning the elections, he brought out simple three-point programme – security, economy and fighting corruption. He led the fight and is leading the fight by personal example”.
A faction of the Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, has also thrown its support to Buhari, arguing that he has done much on repositioning the country.
The PDP candidate, Atiku, has also garnered some support from many organisations and groups. Last weekend, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Middle Belt Forum, Northern Elders Forum, South – South Leaders, came out strongly to announce him as their choice on account of his programmes, particularly his pledge of restructuring the country, if elected, arguing that that is the surest way of freeing the country from its current uncertain tendencies.
The challenge however, is that the endorsements, critically analysed, are not anchored on solid principles. For example, even without stating so, those currently rooting for Buhari, are those gaining from the system or hoping to do so. Marwa, is working for the government, presently. So also are some of his colleagues endorsing the President. He is also known to be at opposing camps with Atiku right in their days in PDP.
Between Marwa and Atiku
Both are incidentally from Adamawa. In 2016 when it was rumoured that he was angling for the presidency while Atiku was still the Vice President, the rift within them blew open when a rally he organised in Yola, was scuttled by security agents, allegedly on the orders of the former. When therefore he eventually left PDP, insinuations were that he was elbowed out of the party by Atiku. The retired general is yet to forgive the PDP candidate for this. His support for Buhari who’s administration has given him an appointment, is therefore, not surprising to analysts.
Atiku and his supporters
For those that root for Atiku, it is not difficult to see in the group, piles of anger occasioned by Buhari’s neglect of their people in various forms. For the Ohanaeze of the South East and the South – South Leaders, this is the payback time for the president who has not disguised his disdain for the regions in allocation of offices and other policy issues. While the same argument goes for the Middle Belt, Buhari’s questionable silence over the menace of the Fulani herdsmen on the region, is enough for the leaders of the area to seek alternative in Atiku.
The various groups may be right in their positions. That further widens the scope of the campaign. But while the considerations play out, the real issue of national cohesion is hardly given much attention.