By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
A new survey shows that a majority of Britons are not happy with the post-Brexit trade agreement Boris Johnson secured with the European Union (EU), confirming another poll earlier this year in which most people backed remaining in the union.
The new report by the British Foreign Policy Group (BFPG) provides the first detailed insight into the attitude of Britons towards Brexit since it took effect on January 1.
BFPG, an independent think tank advocating for a stronger UK global presence, found that under a quarter of those surveyed believe Johnson’s deal is “the best framework for our relationship with the EU moving forward.”
The question of what it should be replaced with, however, reveals that nearly five years since the UK decided to leave the EU, it is still bitterly divided on what role Britain should have in Europe.
The survey, reported by CNN, shows that while 27 per cent of respondents wanted a much closer relationship with a view to rejoining and 22 per cent want a closer relationship but to remain outside the bloc, 12 per cent want to move further away from Europe.
Of the 24 per cent of respondents who approved of the deal, they did so with an important caveat that it was the best deal for the “foreseeable future”. Some 15 per cent of respondents said they didn’t know.
How people would vote in another referendum
The BBC reported on January 31 that despite the Conservatives’ election success, polls conducted during the campaign suggested – as they had done for the last two years – that there was a small but consistent majority in favour of remaining in the EU.
On average, the last half dozen polls before the election put Remain on 53 per cent and Leave on 47 per cent. According to these polls, most Remain (88 per cent) and Leave voters (86 per cent) would vote the same way as in the 2016 referendum.
However, those who did not vote in 2016 back Remain by two to one (53 per cent to 26 per cent).
One poll conducted since the election, by BMG Research, suggests opinion has not shifted significantly since the election. It put Remain on 52 per cent and Leave on 48 per cent.
Softening attitude towards EU
The new survey, conducted in the week after the deal came into effect on January 1, is the first major temperature check on what Brits think of the reality of Brexit.
Even though the UK formally left the EU on March 31 last year, transition arrangements ensured that little of consequence changed until the end of December.
But since then, trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland has been disrupted, the UK’s financial markets have lost business to continental Europe and British exporters have been forced to watch fresh produce rot as new trade barriers prevented exports reaching European markets in time.
British sentiment towards Europe remains difficult to unpick. Broadly, attitudes have softened in the past 12 months. While only a minority wish to rejoin the bloc, a majority of respondents said they viewed the EU as a more important international partner for the UK than the United States.
And while many younger, metropolitan voters are more pro-European than older voters, the report notes that more than a quarter of respondents who voted to leave the EU describe themselves as “European.”
The survey, which was conducted on behalf of BFPG by pollster Opinium, asked 2,002 British citizens questions ranging from what they thought of the Brexit deal to how much they really cared about the so-called “special relationship” with the U.S.
Most respondents were broadly positive that the UK should be active on the world stage, largely in the areas that Johnson says are a priority for his government.
He has made clear that he wants to use his chairmanship of the G7 this year, as well as the UK’s position as host to the United Nations Climate Change Conference, to make a statement about post-Brexit Britain’s commitment to the international order.
Uncomfortably for Johnson, the report also reveals challenges for his “global Britain” agenda among British voters.
The Prime Minister has long claimed that an advantage of Brexit would be the freedom to pursue independent foreign policies in trade, environmental issues, national security, normal leadership and foreign aid.
Indeed, a majority believe that UK spending on foreign policy should be maintained or increased, support a multilateral approach to climate change and would like to see Britain showing moral leadership.
But when it comes to international relations in the round, Johnson falls short of a ringing endorsement: 49 per cent of respondents said they didn’t trust the UK government on foreign policy, compared to 39 per cent who did.
Some 12 per cent did not know. It might also alarm Johnson to find that the voters he prised away from other parties to deliver his victory in 2019 – with his pledge to “get Brexit done” – are the most isolationist.
“Our research makes clear that building public consent around the Global Britain project will be one of the central tests, and biggest challenges, that Boris Johnson will face in his premiership,” said Sophia Gaston, director of the BFPG.
“The Conservative Party’s voter base is in a state of evolution, and is moving away from the Prime Minister’s own instincts towards internationalism and openness. Meanwhile, many other voters are repelled by Global Britain’s associations with Brexit.”
However, she adds, “I’m optimistic that a once-in-a-generation project to bring the country together around a common vision for the UK’s role in the world can succeed, but it will be a hard slog to realise this ambition.”
The report, perhaps unsurprisingly, paints the picture of a nation coming to terms with the most significant shift in its domestic and foreign agenda for decades, unsure of what its next steps should be.
And for many, it will confirm the view that the 2016 vote to leave the EU has created a new divide in British politics that is some way from being bridged.