BBC explains why even few Omicron cases in Nigeria became a red flag
By Jeph Ajobaju, Chief Copy Editor
Nigerian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, Sarafa Isola, echoed in London on December 6 the defence advanced in Abuja by Information Minister Lai Mohammed against the Omicron flight ban Boris Johnson placed on Nigeria.
“To put Nigeria on the red list, just because of less than two dozen cases of Omicron which, by the way, did not originate in Nigeria, is unjust, unfair, punitive, indefensible and discriminatory. The decision is also not driven by science,” Mohammed said.
Isola described the ban as “travel apartheid”.
But both Mohammed and Isola merely whipped up historical racist sentiments, which they found handy. They did not speak to science. And they ignored the laxities in the Nigerian system that played into the hands of the UK.
The ban did not happen without warning.
Two months before Nigeria’s embarrassment became global last week, Oyewale Tomori, a distinguished professor of virology, had alerted that Nigerians with fake Covid test results were testing positive on arrival abroad.
“It has to be people from outside who are discovering this and this brings a lot of shame to the country; we lose respect and we lose credibility,” he said.
Tomori is a former Regional Virologist for the World Health Organisation (WHO) Africa Region from 1994 to 2004, who also served as pioneer Vice Chancellor of Redeemer’s University, Ede, Osun State between 2005 and 2011.
In September this year, he was appointed a member of WHO technical advisory group on COVID-19 vaccine composition.
Tomori warned in October that Nigerians who falsify coronavirus results are bringing “shame” to Nigeria and sought better and faster testing to curb the forgery.
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Basic facts
It is true that fewer Omicron cases have been discovered in Nigeria than in European countries, including the UK. But that obscures the fact Nigeria has three times the population of the UK, conducts fewer tests, and does so with obsolete equipment.
The population of Nigeria is estimated at 206.1 million. That of the UK is 67.22 million and France 67.37 million. The population of Nigeria is 71 million more than those of the UK and France combined.
Nigeria conducts about 0.07 tests per 1,000 people a day, less than about 14 per 1,000 in the UK and about eight per 1,000 in France.
Data from the beginning of November shows that 1 per cent of those arriving in the UK from Nigeria tested positive, similar to the proportion among those arriving from several European countries – each of whose population is less than half Nigeria’s.
The BBC reports below other scientific factors the UK relied upon to add Nigeria to its Omicron red list.
What is the red list?
Nigeria is the latest African country to join the UK’s travel red list – along with South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini, Angola, Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia.
The only people allowed to enter the UK from these countries are UK or Irish nationals, or UK residents.
Arrivals from red-list countries are required to enter hotel quarantine – at their own expense – and isolate for 10 days.
These countries have been targeted because the Omicron variant was first identified in southern Africa.
But the fact all of the nations currently on the red list are African has been described as “wicked and unfair”.
What are the criteria for the red list?
The decision to place a country on the red list is based on risk assessments from the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC), including:
- the quality of its testing structures, including checking for variants
- the number of cases those systems have identified
- whether people have been catching new variants there or the cases have come from overseas
- whether it has exported cases of new variants to other countries, including to the UK
- the quality of travel links with the UK
Why was Nigeria added?
The UK government says Nigeria was added to the list because:
- its analysis suggests a strong indication of Omicron in Nigeria
- several cases identified in the UK are linked to travel from Nigeria
- Nigeria has strong travel links with South Africa, where Omicron was first detected
The JBC provides reports summarising the data used to inform specific country decisions but the one on Nigeria is yet to be published.
A UK government statement announcing Nigeria’s addition to the red list said the “vast majority” of Omicron variant cases in the UK “have clear links to overseas travel from South Africa and Nigeria”.
How many Covid cases are there in Nigeria?
With about 90 cases identified a day over the past week, reported Covid cases in Nigeria are far lower than in most of Europe – but testing in Africa is way below European levels.
During the last week of November, Nigeria completed about 0.07 tests per 1,000 people a day, compared with about 14 per 1,000 in the UK and about eight per 1,000 in France.
But in the week up to 2 December, Nigeria still identified fewer cases per test than several European countries – and South Africa.
However, on top of different testing regimes, all countries collect and share data differently, making international comparisons tricky.
The UK government collects data on people testing positive for Covid after arriving in the UK.
The latest, from the start of November, shows 1 per cent of those arriving from Nigeria tested positive, similar to the proportion among those arriving from several European countries.
What about cases of Omicron?
The Nigerian Centres for Disease Control (NCDC) has identified only three cases of Omicron in the country, all linked to travel from South Africa.
This is fewer than in several European countries, including the UK – where there have been 336 reported Omicron cases.
But the NCDC data was five days old on 7 December, so the numbers are likely to have risen since.
Genome sequencing – the very sophisticated and relatively rare process required to identify variants – is also less advanced in Nigeria than in the UK or South Africa, for example, so the extent of the Omicron spread there may not have been picked up effectively.
In England, 21 Omicron cases had been linked to travel from Nigeria, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said.
What about vaccination rates?
A country’s vaccination rate is also considered before restricting travel, although this is just “contextual information” alongside genome-sequencing ability and Covid transmission.
Vaccination rates in Africa are well below the global average.
In Nigeria, as of 5 December, there had been just 4.8 doses given per 100 people, compared with more than 178 per 100 in the UK.