Assistant Editor, North, CHUKS EHIRIM, was in Bauchi State during the week to x-ray the political activities that will possibly shape the politics of 2015 in the state and the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the gladiators
For a first-time visitor, the peaceful nature of Bauchi State makes it doubtful if the state belongs in the troubled North East geo-political zone where the fear of Boko Haram insurgency has become the measuring rod for safety.
Following reports that this part of the country is now unsafe for anybody to venture into, many journalists who were in Bauchi for a meeting hesitated much before making the trip.
Many of their colleagues from a particular zone of the country stayed away, for the imaginary fear of Boko Haram attacks. But even those who braved the odds, especially those from the Southern part of the country, had to do so in defiance of persuasions from their family members and close friends.
Isa Yuguda
For the three days the meeting lasted, TheNiche took keen interest in the high level of politicking going on in the state, especially prior to the 2015 governorship elections. Of special interest is the number of political juggernauts in the state who are hustling to succeed the incumbent governor, Isa Yuguda.
Though it is still 10 months away from the February 2015 general elections, almost all important public places in the state capital have been decorated with campaign posters of various aspirants for elective offices, especially those gunning for the governorship position. Another area of interest is the fact that Bauchi seems to be a two-party state, at least if the poster ‘war’ is anything to go by. The two parties are the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC).
The PDP alone accounts for over eight of the visible governorship aspirants, and more, according to reliable sources, are yet to make their intention public. The rival APC also boasts of as many as this number of aspirants.
In PDP’s fold are the likes of Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Bala Abdukadir Mohammed (popularly called the Kauran Bauchi by his admirers); Senator Babayo Garba, former House of Assembly Speaker, as well as deputy to former Governor Adamu Muazu.
There are also Salau Dandija, who was relieved of his position as Secretary to State Government (SSG) only a few months back by Yuguda; former national secretary and national chairmanship aspirant of the party in 2012, Dr. Musa Babayo; former Minister of State for Health, Mohammed Pate; former House of Representatives member from Misau, Ahmed Makama; Senator Abdul Ningi, among others.
On the part of APC are former House of Representatives member, Maitama Tugur; and former Minister of State for Police Affairs, Dr. Yakubu Lame; Senator Nazif Suleiman among others.
TheNiche investigations showed that each of these gladiators is coming from very solid political background, with substantial support base. Each of them, especially those in PDP, is equally said to have enough baggage to stop his ambition before it materialises. One of these has to do with the zonal politics in the state, which is said to have gained some currency of late. Another negative factor is that of godfatherism that may spell doom for PDP, the ruling party at the centre.
Take the politics of zoning for instance, a source disclosed that Bauchi South Senatorial District dominated the governorship seat in the state since 1999. Both Muazu, who spent eight years in office (1999 to 2003), and Yuguda, who will be completing another uninterrupted eight years in office by May 2015, hail from the same zone. The clamour now is that of powershift, either to Bauchi North or Bauchi Central. This clamour has, therefore, become the major albatross of the aspirants from the southern district. In this category fall Bala Mohammed, Musa Babayo and Pate.
Those from Bauchi North and Central are likely going to gain from the current wave of politics of zoning sweeping across the state. From Bauch Central are Dandija, Ningi and Makama. Then from Bauchi North come Babayo Garba and Musa Babayo.
Analysts told TheNiche that whoever among this array of aspirants in the PDP crosses the hurdle of zoning has another headache to contend with: that of loyalty to a godfather. Today, there seems to be clearly three godfathers in Bauchi politics. Notwithstanding the empty sloganeering of the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Olisa Metuh, that his party habours no godfather in its fold, those who will decide who gets what in the state chapter include President Goodluck Jonathan, the party’s National Chairman, Mu’azu and Governor Yuguda.
Such aspirants as the FCT Minister are said to be relying on the endorsement of Jonathan to fly the governoship flag of the party next year. A source in Bauchi said Mohammed is neither in the good books of Yuguda nor Mu’azu both of whom he was close to before but has severed political ties with. The FCT Minister was actually the personal assistant to Mu’azu in the past when the latter was governor. He was said to have fallen out with his former boss in 2007 when he teamed up with Yuguda to fight him. Yaguda too, an associate of Mu’azu, parted ways with during the build-up to the 2007 general elections when the latter, as a serving governor, chose to impose one of his aides on the PDP as governorship candidate.
Both Yuguda and Mohammed defected from PDP to the All Peoples Party (ANPP) which produced the political hurricane that swept the polls that year. Mu’azu’s senatorial ambition was cut short in that election. His seat was actually won by Bala Mohammed. But the minister’s romance with Yuguda did not last long. The big Abuja job made that possible. This time around, political pundits are saying it will be easier for the biblical elephant to pass through the eye of the needle than for the Kauran Bauchi to get the endorsement of either Muazu or Yuguda, despite his popularity in the state.
Ningi, current Senate leader, may also fall victim to the politics of godfatherism. Although he has the advantage of being from Bauchi Central, his greatest undoing may be his independent mindedness which the elite and major stakeholders within the PDP in the state reportedly do not cherish. Instead of him, they are said to prefer Babayo Garba, who has shown himself to be a ‘good boy’.
Garba, our source revealed, was the willing tool deployed by Mu’azu to deal a fatal blow on the first deputy governor under him, Garba Gadi. As leader of the state legislature, Garba spear-headed the impeachment move against Gadi. The impeachment threat forced Gadi to resign, then paving the way for Garba to be elevated to the position of deputy governor, from where he went to the Senate. This time around, it is being speculated that those who would decide on who gets what may prefer Garba to Ningi when the chips are down.
Another man who may also gain from the godfather politics is Musa Babayo who, in 2012, was endorsed by the entire PDP in the North East for the position of National Chairman of the party, before President Jonathan put his foot down for Bamanga Tukur. Babayo is said to be close to Yuguda, whose son is married to his daughter.
But Yuguda as a sitting governor is said to have kept his choice of successor close to his chest. An insider, however, told TheNiche that Yuguda’s blessing may eventually go to his former SSG, Dandija, whom he dropped from the cabinet recently. He added that if Dandija loses out, the lot may go to Makama. According to the source, for now, everything that is being said concerning the direction Yuguda is moving is guesswork.
“Everything we are saying in this regard is mere permutation or guesswork because nobody can clearly say, emphatically, that this is where His Excellency is heading,” he said.
He stated that the governor’s taciturn approach is informed by the fact that he does not want to make the same mistake Mu’azu made in 2007.
“If there is one thing Bauchi (people) hate in politics, it is the imposition of candidates on them. The moment they notice you have done that, they will rebel against you. Mu’azu worked so well as governor, but his greatest undoing was the attempt to impose his successor on the rest of us; and then everybody resisted it. Today, the rest is history. I am sure that is what Yuguda is trying to avoid by keeping to his chest the successor he wants,” said the source who preferred not to be quoted.
The governor himself may not be totally free to choose who succeeds him because both President Jonathan and Mu’azu would want to protect their own interest. For Mu’azu, this may be payback time, as he is said not to have completely forgotten how Yuguda dealt with him in 2007. Even his senatorial ambition in 2015 may be scuttled by the PDP boss.
Metuh had made it clear recently that there would be no automatic ticket for any member of the party seeking elective office.
The APC seems to be getting its acts right this time around unlike in 2011 when internal wrangling tore the Congress for Progress Change (CPC) apart. But for the squabble within its ranks, the CPC would have given the PDP a good run for its money. This time, however, the legacy parties that formed the APC seem to have learnt their lesson. On Saturday, April 26, Bauchi APC organised what even its opponents described as very peaceful, rancour-free State Congress which produced Uba Nana as chairman. Though the congress was inconclusive due largely to the fact that it dragged into the night, with only 10 out of 35 positions filled, contestants for the remaining 25 positions agreed to shift the congress for a week.
A chieftain of the party in the state and former National Internal Auditor of CPC, Bala Jibril, told TheNiche that APC stands a good chance of winning both the presidential and governorship elections in Bauchi come 2015.
“For the sake of General (Muhammadu) Buhari, we are going to win the presidential election in Bauchi hands down, and if we pick the right candidate, we will win the governorship election also. But we have to do it right this time around,” said Jibril.