Head, News Desk, VICTOR EBIMOMI, takes a look at the APC primary slated for Wednesday and the battle between the party and PDP ahead 2015.
But from all indications, the race is essentially between Buhari and Atiku. The rest may either step down at the last minute for any of the two or make marginal impact at the end.
Buhari is not new in the race having taken a shot at it three times before. Similarly, Atiku could be described as a master of the game of politics, given his pedigree since his foray into it. At Jos presidential convention of the then Social Democratic Party (PDP) in 1993, for instance, Atiku surprised bookmakers as he made a strong showing coming third behind Moshood Abiola and Baba Gana Kingibe.
Even at the beginning of the current democratic dispensation in 1999, Atiku rode easily to Adamawa State House but relinquished his governorship position to take up Vice Presidential slot with Olusegun Obasanjo. He is considered a great mobiliser, an asset which he showcased then to the advantage of People Democratic Party (PDP) during the early period of the party before he fell out with Obasanjo. He contested the presidential race in 2007 under the platform of Action Congress (AC).
So the primary, according to political watchers, is going to be a keenly-contested one between the two but several factors will determine the fate of the eventual winner.
Atiku’s strength stems from the fact that beyond anything, he has enough war chest to prosecute the primary and even the actual election in presented by his party. And he also still enjoys some measures of popularity among many politicians. Since the APC has tacitly zoned the post to the North, it is estimated that many Northern delegates may be favourably disposed towards his candidacy in the hope that he is easily approachable. The governors, particularly those eyeing second term may equally go for Atiku rather than Buhari because of the latter’s temperament and hard stance on many issues including corruption. So the fear of Buhari may work significantly in favour of Atiku.
But then the larger interest of the party may be his albatross, it has been argued. Many political watchers believe that APC may prefer to losing an Atku to Buhari because of the latter’s electoral value. The former Vice President, they argued, if given the ticket may not even win his state of Adamawa in the presidential election because of the high wire politics going on between the APC and PDP.
But Buhari could change the political equation there because of his popularity and cult personality. This cult-figure personality came handy in 2003 when former Kano governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, was able to defeat Kwankwaso in the 2003 governorship election in the state by merely superimposing Buhari’s picture on of his, while campaigning.
In the last election, the retired General garnered 12 million votes despite the fact that he contested in a relatively new party, Congressive for Progress Change (CPC) which he formed with like minds. Our reporter also learnt that Buhari appears to be getting the support of many APC governors, particularly those in their second tenure while he equally seems to get the support of many other politicians and members of the National Assembly of the party who believe he has enough popularity to turn the fortune of the party around.
Based on these considerations, APC, TheNiche gathered, may go for Buhari because of his potential of widening the party’s popularity. But there is also a hurdle before him. The Northern elite might not be comfortable with him because of his stubborn disposition to some issues.
Atiku and Buhari know that there is a great battle ahead for the soul of their party.
In a statement by Atiku campaign office issued by Shehu Garba, the former Vice President himself declared this much but exuded confidence that he was in a pole position to clinch the party’s ticket. He equally beat his chest that the race is between him and others and that it has even been narrowed down to a level that has placed him in a vantage position.
His words: “We have made great strides. It was formally four aspirants, but it has been reduced to two-man race and Atiku is currently leading. By 10th of December, Atiku will win…
“Nobody has been removed, APC is a democratic party. There is no decree that says that somebody has been removed. You still have officially four candidates who are in the contest”, he said.
On their own, Buhari loyalists have never exhibited any doubt about his possibility of getting the ticket and by extension, beating PDP in the presidential election of 2015.
Speaking with TheNiche, Professor Tam David-West argued that there was nobody in the current Nigeria political firmament that is as competent as Buhari to turn the country around.
Also, Osita Ikechukwu, an APC chieftain maintained that Buhari is the de facto candidate of the party.
“Given his uncommon integrity and the vote bank, which is evidenced by the 12 million votes he garnered in the 2011 presidential election under micro defunct Congress for Progressive Change. When you add it to the massive votes from other parts of the country, you are sure of regime change which Nigerians are earnestly yearning for. GMB as he is fondly called, stands a better chance to fix Nigeria more than any other aspirant in our midst given his impeccable antecedent”, he said.
Whoever gets the party’s ticket between Buhari and Atiku, analysts say, looks good for the race ahead. The two gladiators, are incidentally not leaving anything to chance in going about their aspiration. They, more than other aspirants, have registered their presence in various states of the federation. In their meetings with state delegates, they have presented their agenda.
Atiku who made declaration for his 2015 presidential bid on Wednesday, September 24, 2014, said the aspiration is anchored on the need for reforming government, securing the people and reconciling the nation.
“This is not about me; it is about our young people. It is about Nigerians. It is their future, not the past. It is about reforming government, securing the people and reconciling the nation,” Atiku said.
He stated that 2015 is special and a potential turning point in Nigeria’s history, adding that there is need to seize the moment, to give every Nigerian a chance to help redefine Nigeria as a place for them and their children to prosper and feel safe.
Buhari’s campaign has been on the need to fix Nigeria. He has particularly identified corruption as the bane of the nation’s development and has pledged to tackle the menace.
Perhaps, in a bid to ensure that the party’s presidential primary is not exploited by mischief makers, there has been increased security presence in Lagos.
Jonathan picks PDP ticket
On its own, PDP may have freed itself of primary stress as it has endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan to fly the party’s flag.
On the face value, many expect its December 10 Abuja National Convention to be essentially an affirmative primary. This is especially as the entire organs of the party had earlier endorsed the President as the party’s sole presidential candidate.
Apparently on account of the endorsement, first son of the country’s First Republic Prime Minister, Dr. Abdul Jhalil Tafawa Balewa, who had given indication of challenging the President, later threw in the towel. He had earlier alleged plots to prevent him from purchasing the presidential nomination form of the PDP. But when the form was eventually made available to him, he did obtain but chickened out of the contest after receiving nod from the party’s screening committee.
Another aspirant, Professor Akasoba Duke-Abiola, who also advertised intention to square against the President, dropped the agenda mid-way. Thus, devoid of opposition, the coast appears clear for the president.
But going by certain developments, it may not be a roller coaster ride for Jonathan. For instance, on Thursday last week, some governors on the platform of the party, paid a visit to Obasanjo, whose relationship with Jonathan, has been frosty, lately. Obasanjo has in the build-up to the election, been attacking the President, accusing him of lacking the capacity to run the country. He has also kicked against his re-election bid. The governors, led by Akwa Ibom State governor, Godswill Akpabio, were said to have pleaded with Obasanjo close ranks with Jonathan to ensure that the party wins the 2015 election. Other on the entourage were, Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Babangida Aliyu (Niger) and Isa Yuguda (Bauchi).
Obasanjo, remarkably did not make any pledge on cementing the ranks with the President. Not known for burying the hatchet any time he draws a battle line, there are fears that he may latch on to the overture from Jonathan to pull the rug off his feet. Curiously, most of the governors on the visit were among those counted as his “boys”.
Particularly, he has been making cases for Lamido to take over from Jonathan in 2015. It was thus, difficult to estimate why the Jigawa governor was included on the trip.
But even if the President manages to paper the situation, there are still indications that the journey may not be smooth for him. This newspaper had for example, exclusively reported that with enthusiastic recruits from the South, the groundswell of opposition against the President by the triad of Northern leaders – political, religious and traditional – may make it hard for him to win the ballot, even if he gets the PDP ticket. Part of the plot against him, our reporter gathered, would be to stop him through the courts. The argument would be that having served out Umaru Yar’Adua’s term when he died and having contested for and won an election as a president, he would have exhausted the constitutionally allowed two terms in office.
Jonathan’s men are however said to be studying the situation and mapping out strategies to counter any move that may throw spanner in the work for him.
But for APC, with 14 states to its credit now, analysts argue that the party may give the PDP a rough deal in the coming election. The PDP actually boasts of firm control of South South and South East, but the major battlefields are estimated to be the North West and the North East.
From the latest voting list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), out of 70,383,427 eligible voters in the country, the North-West and the North East have a combination of 29,064,009 – North West has 18,616,499 voters while the North East has 10,447,510.
The South East and South South combined have a total of voters’ register of 16,664,968. And with South-West 14 million of which Lagos alone claims five million, it appears the battle is going to be tough. And with three most populous states in Nigeria – Kano, Lagos and Rivers – under APC, the estimation is that the battle ahead would be tough.
Who flies the flag?
All seems set for the big battle over who, among five political gladiators, gets the nod of over 8,000 delegates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), to fly its flag in the February 14, 2015 Presidential election. For the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the race had been long settled as the ticket was handed over to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, without any intra-party contest.
But in APC, it is still a guess work as to who, among Sam Nda-Isaiah, Governors Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari, would emerge the candidate.
Last Tuesday, the men appeared before the party’s Presidential Screening Committee headed by National Chairman of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, as a prelude to the real contest which comes up at the Onikan Stadium in Lagos on Wednesday, December 10.
Prior to the screening exercise, a major rift had enveloped the party as four, out of the five aspirants had signed a document, disagreeing with the decision of the party, to move the National Convention from Abuja to Lagos. In the letter dated 27 November, 2014 and signed by Nda-Isaiah, Okorocha, Kwankwaso and Abubakar, the aspirants posited that “Abuja as the centre, remains the best, convenient and most acceptable to all”.
They argued that the party had earlier, made payment for Eagle Square, Abuja, for “the 7th and 8th December for Presidential primaries which now is dated for Federal House/ Senate primaries”, that the Presidential primaries should be “retained for 7th and 8th as scheduled while the National Assembly will now hold on the 10th and 11th December”. They also submitted that “the proposed choice of Lagos as a possible venue for the Presidential primaries, is not convenient for them”.
This position of the four aspirants became a major area journalists who interviewed them after their screening, concentrated their questions. Even the Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP), also showed its worries over the matter. In a statement by CNPP spokesman, Osita Okechukwu, the group said “We were jolted when we read the letter signed by four presidential aspirants namely –Atiku Kwankwaso, Okorocha and Nda-Isiaih; showing clear signs of a scatter-broom-diagram.”
“Whereas protest is allowed in a democratic setting, however methinks the issue of venue is minor as delegates are not mobs, but articulate individuals that cannot be influenced only by venue.
“Accordingly, this should be avoided by all means; as the greatest beneficiary of scatter-broom-diagram will be President Goodluck Jonathan, while Nigerians traumatized by corrupt and inept regime will be the greatest losers”.
But the position of the four men changed after appearing before the screening committee. This was at least, reflected in their views when they spoke to the media on the issue. Atiku whole-heartedly welcomed the choice of Lagos as the venue for the presidential primaries.
Atiku said, through his media office, that he is not only delighted that Lagos has been selected to host such an august event but is confident that the city has all it takes to ensure that the event will be memorable and successful especially in view of the cosmopolitan nature of the city and the famed easy going nature of its residents.
Kwankwaso and Nda-Isaiah toed the same line when they spoke on the issue. Though both men said they would have preferred Abuja as the original venue, they were equally not against any other venue the party may decide to settle for. Kwankwaso particularly hangs his hope on the fact if he gets the APC Presidential ticket, at least, 50 per cent of PDP supporters will vote for him in the main election. He said that since he joined the Presidential race, most of his friends and colleagues in the PDP, have signified interest to cross over to the opposition party.
Nda-Isaiah gave further insight into why he is in the presidential race, stressing that he would fight corruption thoroughly
In his view, once elected, he will not give the wrong signals about fighting corruption. “From your body language, people will decide whether to be corrupt or not. If your idea is to suspend the CBN governor for raising alarm about corruption, are you now surprised that there is corruption in the land?
He added, “I want to be President to change the course of history of this country.
“I have always said that when we take over in this country, we intend to unite the country as quickly as possible. Not the kind of unity you hear slogan about on television, but doing deliberate things to unite this country.
“First, there must be justice and fairness. All crimes must be punished, no matter how long it takes, no matter who commits the crimes. There are so many murder cases we are told have been closed. No. We have to start running this country properly.
“Under our government, we are going to be very harsh on corruption. The only way to punish corruption is by being harsh because we have enough laws to punish corruption. The chief fighter of corruption is not the EFCC or ICPC chairman, but the President himself”.
Buhari was upbeat after the screening which he was said to have come first among the five. According to him, “it went well. They asked me what I think should be the answer in terms of security. They are all concerned about the situation in the country, especially the unemployed youths and security. There is no Nigerian that is not aware that these bigger problems”.
Asked about his chances at the primaries, he said “well, we have gone round to ask for understanding and support, my morale is high”.
All the aspirants have their areas of strength and weakness that may work for or against them.
Buhari: who was military Head of state after the fall of the Second Republic, comes on board with a disposition that is anchored on zero tolerance to indiscipline and corruption. While he reigned, he jailed the second republic politicians, enacted series of decrees as demanded by the social conditions of that time. Most of those decrees however did not achieve much in enthroning noble values, or had any transformative effect on the Nigerian leadership behaviour and followership, his critics have argued.
They recall, for instance, that his hasty trial of the corrupt leadership class of 1979-83, incidentally did not tame or stem the plague of corruption which was accentuated by his very constituency, the military. It is also alleged that there was no known record or public disclosure of the amount of loot recovered from the politicians his group overthrew or how the loot was spent accountably.
In the current dispensation, however, he had provided a stabilising voice to opposition politics since his first attempt for the presidency in 2003. He has ready followership among the youth and lower class of the society who see in him, a new face of Nigeria, despite his age, 73.
He had in his declaration for the office, reiterated his desire to reposition Nigeria if given the chance by his party and the electorate. Anchoring his aspiration on discipline and commitment, he asked for another chance from his APC party men in 2015 polls.
But a major allegation he has to battle with, even in the primary, is the charge of religious fundamentalism, which he has however put up spirited efforts to dismiss.
Also, what cannot easily be determined is the extent of Buhari’s financial war chest in going about the contest.
If Kwankwaso, Kano State governor, insists on the race, there are fears that his aspiration may make the race tighter for Buhari, given that both are from the same North-West geo-political zone. Speculations were however rife last week that the governor may step down for the former military leader. Part of the reasons that may make him toe the line is that he does not have the national name recognition that can see him taking on President Jonathan, if he clinches his party’s ticket. This is not withstanding his touted scorecard in re-engineering Kano.
The same factor may work against Okorocha.
By the close of work on Friday, it was not easy to determine who the Imo governor, was working with or for. On a visit to his state by Atiku, he was credited with a body language that suggested tagging on with him. Some however accuse him of being close to his Kano counterpart, which may mean likely support for Buhari. Analysts suggest that he may be angling for Vice Presidential slot.
Atiku is credited with extensive network of contacts and sterling organisational capacities that had seen him sustaining the then Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) and nurturing it to a formidable platform that came handy at the formation of PDP. He was also seen as stabilising voice in the first term of former President Obasanjo’s administration where he was the Deputy.
In fact, until Atiku and Obasanjo got entangled in a suffocating feud in the build up to the 2003 general election, the political clout of the former Vice President had loomed large across the country. He had at the onset of the current political dispensation sent signals of being among the politicians to reckon with in the land. When he left the governorship election that he had easily won in Adamawa for a vice presidential slot, it was seen as an attempt at marketing his intimidating credentials at the national level.
However, when his battle with Obasanjo began to take turns for the worst, enormous efforts were deployed by the highly vindictive former President to shoot down his towering influence.
Many still see him as a great leader that cannot be written off any day. There are whispers that he has the resources that may sway APC delegates to his direction.
Critics of the former Vice President, however argue that he cannot easily be identified with any identifiable vision or ideology for moving Nigeria forward. They allege that at one point he would propose regionalism in line with the present geopolitical structure and at other point, he would talk about unity and indissolubility of Nigeria.
Nda-Isaiah, until he became a publisher of Leadership Newspaper, was not known by many Nigerians, especially for holding pronounced public office. The same problem of name recognition, it is feared, may work against him at the APC primary.
There are suspicions that his major agenda is the return of the presidency to the North in 2015. Insinuations are also high that he may be working for Buhari. Nda-Isaiah’s supporters however insist that he possesses leadership skills required to reposition Nigeria.