By Emeka Alex Duru
Two quick developments within three weeks, should have been enough for the ruling All Progressives congress (APC), to announce its readiness for the 2019 general elections.
Barely 10 days ago, the party pulled a stunning victory in Ekiti State governorship election, which took place on Saturday, July 14. With the victory, APC now controls 25 states out of the 36 states in the country.
Two weeks earlier, precisely on June 23, the party had conducted a national convention that threw up a new set of leadership headed by former Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole.
It had also within the period, had majority in both Houses of the National Assembly.
These, ordinarily, were considerations the APC should have frontloaded in its participation in next year’s elections as mere consolidation of its hold on the country’s politics. But that is not the case, or so it seems, presently.
In fact, if anything, rather, APC seems headed for the rocks, ironically in confirmation of insinuations by critics that it is a mere assemblage of strange bedfellows brought together by the urge for power, even without knowing what to do with it.
By Tuesday, July 24, 2018, what signposted the uncertain dimensions of the crisis in the party began to emerge when 15 Senators and 37 House of Representatives members on its platform, defected to the rival Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
For those that moved in the Senate, it took a terse statement of not more than four paragraphs, to confirm what had been held as rumour since the last two months or thereabout.
Exodus of the Lawmakers
Their letter of defection to the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, read: “Dear Senate President after due consultation with our constituents and stakeholders in our constituencies, in proper recognition of section 68(1G) of the 1999 Constitution as amended and with the fact that our party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is hereby emerging factions.
“We hereby inform the Senate that we the undersigned are changing our political affiliation from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)”.
The Senators include, Barnabas Gemade (Benue), Shaaba Lafiaji (Kwara), Rafiu Ibrahim (Kwara), Abdulazeez Nyako (Adamawa), Monsurat Sunmonu (Oyo) and Usman Nafada (Gombe).
The list also included Senators Suleiman Hunkuyi, Ibrahim Danbaba, Ubale Shittu, Isah Misau, Suleiman Nazif, Rafiu Ibrahim.
Speculations on their defection began to gain ground, last week, when leading elements of the reformed All Progressives Congress (rAPC) met with the leaders of the PDP in Ilorin, the capital of Kwara State.
Although the meeting was variously explained as coincidental and to commiserate with a chieftain of the rAPC, Abubakar Baraje, who lost his mother recently, there were insinuations that the occasion provided grounds for negotiations on the absorption of the break-away faction of the APC into the PDP.
Aside known faces of the rAPC, others at the meeting were Saraki, Governors Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto State), Samuel Ortom (Benue State) and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara State), Nyesom Wike (Rivers), as well as the PDP National Chairman, Prince Uche Secondus, who led the party’s National Working Committee (NWC).
What next after defection?
With the movement of the Senators, PDP now has the majority in the upper chamber, with 58 members, while APC is in the minority, with 48. All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), has two members.
Apparently to forestall immediate reaction from the obviously bruised APC leadership, the Senate President, adjourned further plenary of the chamber till September 26.
The adjournment is also seen as a quick strategy by Saraki, who had been at the receiving end of intrigues by the Presidency and APC leadership, to consolidate on the gains of the day.
The break, our reporter learnt, is also to woo other members of the party, including the governors, who have not been adequately carried along in the affairs of the party, to join the defection train.
The ultimate agenda in the exercise, TheNiche gathered, is to perforate the APC and render it in such a weak state to make the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari, impossible, next year.
APC reacts, calls for caution
Notwithstanding, (APC), shortly after the defection saga, urged its members to remain calm even as it insisted that it respects the rights of anyone to change parties.
“APC notes the development in the National Assembly with the defection of some of our members from the party,” Bolaji Abdullahi, the APC spokesperson, said in a statement, which was made available to TheNiche.
The party observed that despite the development, it remains in firm control of 25 states of the 36 states of the federation and maintains a clear majority in the Federal House of Representatives and State Assemblies.
It therefore, urged its members to remain calm, saying it would continue to prepare the party towards 2019.
“As a truly democratic party, we respect the right of every citizen to political association. Therefore, we urge our members to remain calm as we continue to work hard to position our party strongly for the next general elections.
“We assure members and supporters that our great party will continue to consolidate on our majority status in the lead-up to the 2019 General Elections, even as our government continues to work hard to deliver on our promises to Nigerians.”
Back to 2012?
PDP had found itself in similar situation in 2012, when former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and seven governors on the party’s platform, staged a walk-out at its Abuja mini convention, on account of the prevailing culture of impunity in its fold.
While faced with imminent implosion, the Party had swaggered on, claiming that it was on top the situation.
Realities however began to dawn on the party and its leadership when five of the then governors on its platform – Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto) and Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), ditched it and joined APC.
The movement of the governors and the legislators, with their supporters, counted among the factors that saw APC winning the 2015 polls.
This is the challenge currently facing the ruling party. Its version of the crisis has taken off from the National Assembly. There are reports of other key officials of the party leaving in the days ahead. A particular North West governor, is in fact, billed to ditch the party before the end of the week.
That particular action, TheNiche gathered, may open the floodgate for another round of exodus from the APC, this time around, the governors and more members of the legislature and national and state levels.