ANALYSIS: 2019 elections and matters arising

With the latest meeting of 39 political parties resulting in the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding ‎ (MoU) ahead of the 2019 general elections, Assistant Politics Editor, Daniel Kanu, dissects the new political development.

With the Leaders of 39 political parties including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Reformed All Progressives Congress (R-APC) coming together on Monday, July 9, at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja to sign a Memorandum of Understanding ‎(MoU) ahead of the 2019 general elections, it is obvious that the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC) is jolted.

There is no denying the fact that the APC has been boxed to a corner, perhaps, contrary to its political permutation.

Despite refutations by the party leadership that there was not going to be any implosion, it seems to be obvious that the deepening crack in the party has taken a dangerous dimension that may sink the party.

Although the National Chairman of the party, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole acknowledged the crack and maintained that discussions were in top gear with stakeholders, critical political observers say not much may be done to salvage the party as most Nigerians are assumed to be disenchanted with the situation of things in the country, particularly as it affects the economy, security as well as corruption fight.

The focus of the emerging coalition is simple: Buhari must go.

The template is expected to produce a process that would lead to a compromise in fielding a consensus presidential candidate against Buhari, the possible candidate of the APC.

Part of the strategy The Niche gathered is to allow members of the coalition, particularly, those holding elected positions be given “right of first refusal” to contest for the same positions in the 2019 elections.

It was further learnt that the new coalition will shop for Presidential candidates “with no baggage” and with followership believed to match and deplete the numbers of Buhari’s followers in the north.

While the APC had earlier dismissed the move of the rAPC as well as that of other opposing group’s as mere ranting of under dogs, it does not appear the situation is so again going by latest development.

The Niche authoritatively gathered that top APC leadership are already jolted and desperately contacting one another for top-secret emergency meeting.

Engineer Martin Onovo, Presidential candidate of the National Conscience Party, (NCP) in the 2015 election, described the latest development as a cheering one, saying that “it is a grand coalition that will take President Muhammadu Buhari back to Daura.”

According to him “The damage done by the APC government is unprecedented and the focus if you ask me is to find a method to take the president back to his home town, Daura. It has been a catastrophic experience for Nigerians and we cannot afford to chase shadows.”

“Let me tell you, it is only God that can bring Buhari back. Nigerians have rejected him, the international community has also rejected him. The common factor is that Buhari must go. We cannot continue with this massive damage done on Nigeria and Nigerians. Never in history is Nigeria badly divided as now”.

“I predicted this coalition if Buhari must be sent packing out of Aso Rock and I am happy how far the struggle has been. But Nigerians must wake up to the reality of the moment because we are degenerating to a fascist state”.

Also Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu has assured that the coming together of various opposition political parties to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) would rescue Nigeria in 2019 and restore her on the path of democratic freedoms, joy, security, and development.

A former spokesman for Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, Doyin Okupe, had earlier warned the leadership of the APC not to wish away the threat by R-APC, headed by Buba Galadima, as well as that of the other groups, giving the personalities involved.

Okupe was reacting to a statement credited to Alwan Hassan, an APC member on Channels Television Sunrise programme, on Monday.

Hassan had reportedly said that the APC was not perturbed by the decision of the R-APC to quit the party.

According to Hassan, “If Saraki likes let him take the R-APC to heaven. We do not care. We are better off without them.

“Don’t be surprised that most of them won’t even be re-elected come 2019 under the platform of the APC,” he added.

Okupe recalled that similar incident played out before the build-up to the 2015 elections where then chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, was alleged to have boasted that the party would fare better without the aggrieved members of the nPDP.

According to Okupe “If Nigerians want the best, then we should not refuse those who have done well. Aminu Tambuwal is a very brilliant, ebullient known young man. Apart from President Buhari, the next most visible, notable politician in Nigeria today is Bukola Saraki. And he will do himself a great favour if he runs for president.

“Left for me alone, the APC members will be doing themselves a favour if they don’t allow the president to run. If he runs there is likely going to be a regrettable act because if Buhari wins, there will be problem and if he loses there would still be problem. So, why bother to run?”

Fillers coming from the APC secretariat, The Niche gathered is that “there is no cause for alarm”.

The party said it has the capacity to contain the emerging political scenario.

How far the party can go, analysts say, is in the womb of time.

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