By Emeka Alex Duru
While it may be possible to make some predictions on the outcome of the March governorship election in some states, it would not be the case in Imo. If anything, rather, the race is open and may go to any of the leading contenders for the office in the state. The candidates considered to be in strong contention for the race are, former Deputy Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Hope Uzodimma of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Ifeanyi Araraume of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) Uche Nwosu of Action Alliance (AA) and Ikedi Ohakim of Accord Party (AP).
Until President Muhammadu Buhari’s visit to the state on Tuesday, January 29, the impression in some quarters, was that the race was essentially going to be between the APC, the ruling party in the state, the opposition PDP and to some extent, APGA. But Buhari’s visit and his utterance at the rally, has altered the permutation, considerably. While addressing party chieftains and supporters, Buhari had urged voters to vote for candidates of their choice. He did not specifically campaign for the party’s candidates for various posts in the state. Incidentally, the statement was made with Uzodimma, the state’s flag bearer of the party, present.
In the same breathe, Buhari raised the hands of Uzodimma and Governor Rochas Okorocha, senatorial candidate of Imo West (Orlu), who has never hidden his preference for Nwosu, his son-in-law. The President was also, later spotted in a photograph with Nwosu, the AA candidate and his wife. The directive from Buhari and his photo session with Nwosu, have subsequently engineered insinuations that he may have dumped Uzodimma. That impression has also set the Okorocha/Nwosu camp on excitement mood. More than that, the ambivalent outing by Buhari, may have widened the gulf in the state’s wing of the APC. Since the controversial governorship primary of the party in which the Ahmed Gulak–led panel proclaimed Uzodimma the winner, against Okorocha’s preference for Nwosu, his former chief of staff, the governor has not relented in ensuring that he had his way. It was in this regard that he encouraged Nwosu, 18 members of the state’s assembly, including the Speaker, Acho Ihim, to cross over to AA. Nwosu’s aspiration in AA had not been attracting much attention against the backdrop of the assumption that the President would naturally throw his support behind the APC candidate in the state. But with Buhari washing his hands off Uzodimma, a huge pall of uncertainty has been cast on the party in the state.
Uzodimma and Nwosu are from Orlu zone, touted for its bloc votes in major elections in the state. While Uzodimma hails from the Orsu axis of the District, Nwosu is from the Isu end. With both, likely splitting the votes from the 12 councils in the zone, the edge Orlu has over Owerri and Okigwe zones in electoral contests with bloc votes, may be affected, this time around. This may have serious impacts on the fortunes of the two candidates and their parties.
That may open a window of opportunities for Ihedioha, the only strong contender from Owerri zone. Coming also on the ticket of the rejuvenated PDP that longs to return to power at the federal level, he stands good chances for the office. His long period of engagement in political participation, may also count for him. In the court of public opinion, he also does not have baggage of integrity and duplicitous antecedents. But the allegations of arrogance and stinginess remain two serious issues he needs to address to convince the electorate to give him their votes this time, having lost in his attempts for the position in 2015. More than this, Ihedioha has the stiff challenge coming from his fellow party man, Senator Sam Anyanwu, to contend with. Anyanwu, the Senator representing Owerri zone, is currently in court with Ihedioha, on argument that he is the valid PDP governorship candidate for the election. The duration of the process and its eventual outcome, especially if it goes against Ihedioha, may weaken the PDP outing in the election.
Araraume’s APGA, should ordinarily reap from the uncertainties in APC, AA and PDP. APGA, was after all, the household name in Imo politics in the run-up to the current dispensation. But the breezy circumstances behind Araraume’s emergence as the flag bearer in addition to his trademark unconventional political tendencies, are some of the issues denying the party total embrace by the average voter in the state. There are also unconfirmed reports of Araraume being prodded for the office by some forces in APC. Besides, the contention from Ohakim, former governor of the state, who is also running for the office on the ticket of Accord Party (AP), may affect his votes from Okigwe senatorial district where they hail from.
The uncertain scenario in the state, thus, makes it difficult predicting a likely winner in the poll. Certain behind-the-scene variables may thus come up in determining the victor. The so-called incumbency factor – a euphemism for victory by an incumbent or his candidate through controversial means, can, therefore, not be ruled out in the governorship election in Imo. Besides, the governor still has followers among the electorate who listen to him. He also has officials of the government from different parts of the state who can be mobilised to deliver their areas for his candidate. The lawmakers from the state who defected to AA, also have influence in their constituencies. “It will therefore, amount to wrong political calculation to write off Nwosu merely on ground that he is Okorocha’s in-law. I do not support his candidature since Orlu, his zone, has been in power for 16 years. I expect him to give people from other zones, chance. But this is politics where it is easy to preach fairness but hard to practice it. I see him making serious impacts, if not altering some trending permutations at the end of the day”, Okoroigwe Nwagwu, a lawyer and public opinion analyst, told our reporter in chat.
This fear is further buoyed by Buhari’s equivocal remarks at the APC rally in the state as well as the internal contradictions in the other political parties in the state.