Give or take, I predict that in the 2023 presidency, Tinubu will score the highest number of votes cast (not less than a winning margin of four million votes), score not less than 25 percent in 34 out of the 36 states and win not less than 24 out of 36 states.
By Tiko Okoye
All Progressives Congress (APC)/Bola Tinubu
Party strengths
- The APC founded only nine years ago on February 6, 2013 (compared with 24 years for APGA and PDP), has acquired a very significant national presence and name recognition.
- Staked its claim for a prominent position in the Nigerian political turf by triumphantly scaling the real test of their mettle as the first opposition party in Nigerian history to unhorse a governing party following the victory of Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 presidential election.
- Afflicted with the scourge of cliquishness during Buhari’s first term, the waves of defections of lawmakers and others back to the PDP conjured up the cross-eyed spectacle of a two-headed monster with APC as the de jure ruling party and PDP as the de facto ruling party. That Buhari was re-elected in 2019 with a bigger winning margin and APC solidified its majorities in the National Assembly more eloquently spoke on the matter of the party’s character and solidity.
- With 21 (14) out of 36 state governors, 63 (38) out of 109 senators, 209 (126) out of 360 representatives and 598 (329) out of the 991 seats in state Houses of Assembly under its wing, APC certainly straddles the Nigerian political firmament like an invincible colossus (figures in parentheses depict those of its nearest rival, the PDP).
- The surfeit of governors and others with very deep pockets implies that the party has a virtually bottomless war chest to prosecute elections.
Party weaknesses
- Won the 2015 general elections on the promise that it would enthrone the kind of ‘change’ Nigerian citizens desperately needed. There are many who contend that the party has failed to deliver on its promise and the term ‘change’ has become highly obnoxious in several quarters.
- Seemingly unfair advantages that have accrued to one group of stakeholders, causing many to conclude that the party is still being haunted by the factional ghosts of its origins. This runs counter to present-day yearning by Nigerians for a more equitable, united and inclusive society.
Strengths of the Tinubu/Shettima ticket
- First elected a senator representing Lagos West in 1992, Tinubu has morphed into a veteran political warhorse and highly-treasured political asset with an equally high political acumen.
- He possesses storied democratic antecedents. As one of the most visible leaders in the National Alliance for Democracy (NADECO), Tinubu was at the forefront of the struggle to restore MKO Abiola’s electoral mandate voided by the Ibrahim Babangida military junta.
- That he was the last governor under the aegis of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) standing when Obasanjo effectively capitalised on the naivety of the Afenifere leadership in the 2003 general elections to flip the entire South-West under the umbrella party, underscores his perspicacity and savvy.
- It can be practically argued that there is none in Nigeria comparable to Tinubu in the strategic vision of moulding future leaders. The fealty he has purposefully and constructively engendered in the young men and women he has mentored in their career and personal development is sure to translate into huge political and electoral pay-offs at crunch times.
- Shettima is a two-term governor of Borno who is spoken very highly of by Christian leaders in the state. He has a grip on the politics of his state that is second to none.
Weaknesses of the Tinubu/Shettima ticket
- Like the Ikenne-born sage, Obafemi Awolowo, Tinubu generates very strong passions of like and dislike. Seen as the man who finally ‘colluded’ with Buhari to unseat their most beloved Azikiwe Ebele Jonathan in 2015, a vast majority of persons in the South-East and South-South, without a clear understanding of how politics is played, consider him the devil incarnate who must be vengefully denied from moving into Aso Villa.
- Critics – mostly in the South – scoff at the Muslim-Muslim ticket, describing it as the biggest threat to Nigeria’s unity. The same-faith ticket may likely galvanize more voters in the South to exercise their civic responsibility. But it could also trigger the same effect in the North. At the end of it all, it is wise for all contending parties to take a closer look at the voter’s register. I won’t say more than this because, as English essayist and poet Samuel Johnson once intoned: “(If) I have found you an argument, I am not obliged to find you an understanding.”
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Summary
- It goes without saying that Tinubu is the most vilified politician in Nigeria as at today in the print and electronic media, with overlapping waves of derogatory commentaries, padded with academic mumbo-jumbo and pushing false and rehashed narratives. They are the same tales and lawsuits serially told and filed since 1999 when Tinubu first contested the Lagos governorship election. But the fact that they were all dismissed by courts and that relevant educational institutions and organisations have come out to unequivocally squash the potentially ruinous gossips hasn’t stopped the pranksters.
- It must all mean that Tinubu is the candidate to beat. People only throw stones and sticks at a tree laden with ripe, sweet fruits. But I feel no sympathy for Tinubu. If he can’t handle the brutal insults and unpalatable invectives, how can he handle the more complex and crippling challenges facing the nation?
- Political parties are in the business of winning elections by any possible combinations and permutations, not to play the role of Father Christmas. Christians outside the South-West have never voted in large numbers for the APC. Thus, selecting a Christian as running mate would’ve marked the APC ticket as being dead-on-arrival, with Atiku only too ready to play the religious card in his sixth – and probably final – shot at the presidency.
- Traducers hypocritically hell-bent on making a song and dance out of APC’s same-faith ticket certainly know better. The first ever same-faith presidential ticket was that of Awo and Phillip Umeadi (Unity Party of Nigeria) in 1983. The second was that of Abiola and Babagana Kingibe (Social Democratic Party) in 1993. So the loud din that attended the APC ticket is driven by other less than altruistic factors.
- Being a Southerner should ideally represent a massive plus for Tinubu in the South, especially as Wike has received tremendous support for his struggle against the PDP ticket. But I don’t really see it as a strength because – truth be told – that there are many in the South-South and a vast majority in the South-East who would prefer an Atiku rather than a Tinubu victory should push turn to shove. It is what it is!
- Tinubu is the quintessential kingmaker who finally got tired of grooming and picking others for the throne. That he has diligently prepared himself over a long period of time is easily discernible in the types of uncommon strategic partnerships and inclusive alliances he has been building. He definitely wants to be judged by the results he’s delivering rather than by any bring-down-the-roof oratory.
- He has had a chequered odyssey in the party he sacrificed the most to birth, needing to madly charge like Don Quixote, the lead character in Miguel Cervantes’ classic novel, into the presidential primary to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat in the very last moments. Any candidate underestimating the cojones of a candidate who underwent such a chilling experience does so at his own peril.
- If you bothered to take a keener look at the voter’s register like I advised, you will readily confirm how a working partnership between the North-West and the South-West – with the North-East as the icing on the cake – would continue to guarantee victory for the APC presidential ticket. All said and done, the 2023 presidential election is Tinubu’s for the taking. But only if Buhari’s cult following in the North perceive Sai-Baba to be very actively rooting for him.
- If Buhari – renowned for his nonchalance and detached mien – fails to lend Tinubu the same kind of support the latter lent him in 2015 and 2019, it would catalyse the eventual implosion of the APC, and send an unambiguous message to the rest of the North that he really desires to be succeeded by a fellow Northern Muslim – with Atiku as the sole beneficiary – despite all the public disavowals.
- To effectively mitigate the risk of coming to very erroneous conclusions, Tinubu and Shettima must creatively find ways to communicate directly with Buhari as he needs to be very closely micro-managed and tackled.
- Give or take, I predict that in the 2023 Presidency Tinubu will score the highest number of votes cast (not less than a winning margin of four million votes), score not less than 25 percent in 34 out of the 36 states and win not less than 24 out of 36 states. But this prediction is hinged on his fellow party-men from the North holding true for him.
- Concluded.