2023 presidency and chances of the presumptive frontrunners
By Tiko Okoye
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)/Atiku Abubakar
Party strengths
- Has significant national presence and name recognition. PDP has been around since the birth of the Fourth Republic in 1999. At the zenith of its vice-like grip on the Nigerian political firmament, its national leadership bragged that it was “the biggest political party in Africa” – and justifiably so it seemed to the public at large at the time.
- Was in power for over half of the unbroken 23 years of civilian rule – 16 years to be exact, enabling it to build strongholds of block voting in several geopolitical zones.
- PDP is a national brand with a very strong presence in each of the 774 LGAs in Nigeria.
- With 16 out of 36 state governors, 38 out of 109 senators and 121 out of 360 representatives under its wing, there’s no shortage of men of ‘timber and calibre’ in the party, as we say in these parts.
Party weaknesses
- In a winner-takes-all polity like Nigeria’s, PDP has been considerably weakened by the never-ending defection of many ‘political juggernauts’ to the ruling party.
- A combination of factors that range from the six-year absence from the pinnacle of political power and the defection of many ‘strong’ men, has led to a significantly-shrunken war chest to prosecute elections – a scenario exacerbated by the ongoing conflict with Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike who has been the indisputable financier of the party’s programmes since 2015 when it lost the presidential election to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
- Rather than face the rigours of the impending general elections as a united family, the PDP’s umbrella is being shredded on all sides by internal party wrangling, the most contentious of which is attributable to the Wike-led group of five governors. And as the popular saying goes: “United they stand and divided they fall.”
- Biggest potential threat confronting the PDP is the presidential candidacy of Peter Obi under the banner of the Labour Party. Prior to this development, the South-East zone was arguably the most zombie-like backer of the PDP to the extent that it became proverbial to say that the zone will give a 99% block vote to a goat propped up by the PDP than take a second look at a superstar candidate of any other party.
Strengths of the Atiku/Okowa ticket
- Atiku is a veteran political warhorse and serial contender in presidential elections since 1993. He has built a huge political network along the way, leveraging on the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) – the pan-Nigeria political machine built by Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua (rtd).
- Atiku effectively capitalised on the considerable leeway given him on economic management by his principal during their first term in office to masterfully grow his wealth and build fealty.
- His wives practically come from all the major tribes of Nigeria, and although he ensured that the Christians among them converted to Islam, he’s touted as a moderate Muslim with a knack for easily being a welcome dinner guest at any home in the South.
- Very deep private pockets.
- Okowa is a medical doctor and two-term governor of a Delta State flush with funds from 13% derivation fund for oil-producing states and FAAC allocations – designated to fill the void left by the zipping up of the Rivers State purse by a truculent Wike.
READ ALSO: 2023 Presidency: Anybody deceiving you can continue deceiving you! (3)
Weaknesses of the Atiku/Okowa ticket
- Most pundits and commentators scoff at the PDP’s criticism of APC’s same-faith ticket because truth be told a Northern Fulani Muslim like Atiku succeeding another Northern Fulani man like Muhammadu Buhari is more detestable than a Southern Muslim candidate succeeding a Northern Muslim candidate.
- PDP’s choice of a Northerner was immensely impolitic and flies in the face of equity, inclusiveness and nation-building. It even gets worse when you throw the fact that the national chairman is a Northerner into the mix!
- A significant proportion of Nigerians still angrily perceive the 16 years PDP held the reins of power at the centre as “years of the locusts” and even their traditional bases now seem to be in lock-step with Labour Party’s Peter Obi.
- Atiku isn’t exactly doing any good to the general impression of him as a transactional and ’corrupt’ politician with his constant remarks about selling off valuable national assets to friends and acolytes – just as he did during his first term as a free-wheeling Vice-President.
- It’s ironical that despite his long stay in the political trenches, the only election Atiku has ever won on his own right is the 1999 governorship election. He has lost every single election he contested since then! This isn’t very inspiring.
- No candidate has ever won the presidential election in Nigeria without winning in one or two of the three most vote-rich states of Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt. This makes it all the more surprising that Atiku has chosen to play a game of Russian roulette with the governor of a key state such as Wike over a matter that appears very routine.
- As was earlier mentioned, Obi’s candidacy is a fatal blow to Atiku’s ambition as far as the South-East goes. The only partial mitigant to the risk the development poses to Atiku is that none of the sitting governors in the zone – comprising two from PDP, two from APC and one from APGA – has endorsed Obi. It’s both enigmatic and troubling but it remains to be seen what good such a stance can do for Atiku in a zone where the indigenes have displayed a propensity to obey the directives of their unelected leaders than their elected leaders!
Summary
- Fans of American football would easily appreciate that with only a couple of seconds to go to the end of the game, the quarterback of a team losing by less than six points – score for a touchdown of the ball in the opposing team’s end zone – would go for broke by throwing what’s known as a ‘Hail Mary’ to the running-back (typically) or wide receiver (occasionally) in a bid to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
- The 2023 presidential election will be the sixth Atiku would be contesting in his highly-chequered political career. At 76 age definitely isn’t on his side, and he now finds himself in the last-hurray position as that hard-pressed quarterback who must risk it all by throwing that make-or-break long pass in a desperate attempt to score very late in the game and miraculously carry the day.
- Six attempts may seem like a no-brainer; but Muhammadu Buhari made it on his fourth attempt. And records are meant to be broken.
- To make up for the loss of the South-East block vote usually guaranteed the PDP, Atiku would have to increasingly and more overtly play the religious card in the North – portraying APC’s Tinubu, his major opponent in the region – as a Southern whose Muslim credentials cannot be vouched for. It is what it is in politics. How well the strategy would succeed remains to be seen, but rumours of renegade APC heavyweights in the North beginning to clandestinely work with Atiku shouldn’t dismissed will-nilly.
- And since no candidate has ever won a presidential election in Nigeria without winning one or two of the three topmost vote-rich states of Kano, Lagos and Rivers – and with the first two most likely to be carried by APC – it beggars belief why Atiku hasn’t rushed to settle his disagreement with Wike.
- But if the wily, battle-scarred Waziri Adamawa, who more than anyone else understands how his interests best fit into the issues at play, isn’t too willing to play the game of reciprocal benedictions with the Rivers State territorial commander then there must be more to the entire saga than meets the ordinary eye. An Igbo proverb posits that if a rat runs from the forest to jump into a raging fire, what’s pursuing it must be more villainous life-threatening than the fire. Only time will tell us which of the duo implemented the right strategy or whether it turns out to be a mutually assured destruction.
- In a nation seemingly in a quagmire of abject poverty, stomach infrastructure remains a primary means of winning elections and no politician has the means, and understands the game better, than Atiku as his opponents in the PDP presidential primaries found out to their chagrin in 2018 and 2022.
- Give or take, I predict Atiku’s best performance to be first runner-up. But (a massive ‘but’) his winning odds would dramatically ratchet-up if Buhari acts or fails to act in a particular direction (details later).
- Next week: Labour Party and Peter Obi/Datti Baba-Ahmed.