Zonal/state electoral predictions for 2023 Presidency
By Tiko Okoye
North-Central
- Principally a two-way horse race between All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
- Although the Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Simon Lalong, is the incumbent governor of Plateau State, the constant blood-letting unleashed by marauding Muslim gangs would work against the party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket. Christian sympathy vote might just see Labour Party’s (LP) Obi squeaking through with a razor-thin majority. But victory could still go APC’s way if Lalong pulls his weight.
- The political dynasty of former-Senate President Bukola Saraki in Kwara seems to have been irredeemably shattered by the ‘Eto oge’ phenomenon that sacked him from the Senate in 2019. Meanwhile, Gov. AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has succeeded in pushing Information Minister Lai Mohammed out into the cold, and now straddles Kwara as a political colossus in his own right.
- APC to win the three states of Kwara, Kogi and Nasarawa.
- PDP to triumph in Benue and Niger (the latter could still be a toss-up between APC and PDP, depending on scenarios that will be shortly discussed).
North-East
- Strictly a two-way horse race between APC and PDP.
- Any pundit predicting election results in this zone without taking cognizance of the sky-high popularity of President Muhammadu Buhari – a former military governor of the old North-East State whose mother is Kanuri – is simply blowing hot air. A large swathe of this zone has steadfastly remained with Buhari through his political journeys from the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), to APC.
- APC to easily carry the three states of Gombe, Borno and Yobe. The last two are under the control of highly popular incumbent APC governors and the still well-liked Kashim Shettima, the incumbent’s predecessor, is Bola Tinubu’s running mate. The recent reconciliation between former Gombe Gov. Danjuma Goje (now a senator) and his successor, Gov. Inuwa Yahaya, has united the party in readiness for the election.
- Gov. Mohammed Bala’s support for the Wike-led G5, in their rift with Atiku Abubakar, and his most recent quip that the people of his state are ‘Buharists,’ apparently to acknowledge the fact that Buhari carried the state in 2015 and 2019 by double digits, may just be signalling that he has correctly interpreted the handwriting on the wall and knows APC will carry Bauchi just as he completes his second term.
- PDP to triumph in Adamawa, but Atiku is well advised to avoid being overconfident and complacent. In the APC governorship primary, Aishatu Binani defeated political titans such former-Gov. Bindow Jibrilla and pioneer EFCC Chairman Nuhu Ribadu. PDP can only underrate such a giant-killer at its own peril.
- Taraba, an erstwhile solid state for PDP, could be up for grabs this time around considering the high popularity of Senator Emmanuel Bwacha – former-PDP Senate Whip – who defected from the party to pick up the APC governorship ticket after a bitter parting of ways with incumbent Gov. Darius Ishaku. Albeit, PDP does have a competitive edge, with Obi’s LP lurking very ominously in the background due to high religious sensitivity.
North-West
- Two-way horse race between APC and PDP.
- APC to score outright wins in the six states of Sokoto, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara.
- Kebbi is a toss-up between APC and PDP and a lot would depend on what impact prodigal PDP foundation members, such as former-Governor and sitting Senator Adamu Aliero, who defected to APC prior to returning to the umbrella party, can muster, failing which the state will go to APC.
- Kano remains in doubt only because of the presence of former-Governor and Senator, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who defected from PDP to APC and returned to PDP, only to leave again to register his own political party – the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). His chances of carrying Kano would be tight but still relatively bright if it was a straight contest between himself and incumbent Governor Abdullahi Ganduje. But Buhari carried the state by a landslide in 2015 and 2019.
South-East
- Conventional wisdom is that LP would carry the entire South-East.
- I’m equally tempted to concede that Obi would carry the five South-East states of Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Ebonyi and Imo, going by the impact the ‘Obidients’ are making on the social media. They appear very determined to overcome all the daunting challenges such as the IPOB factor, the history of deep internecine antagonisms among Igbo states and the famed Republican spirit.
- This zone has been a very productive hunting ground for the PDP since 1999. Obi’s entry amounts to Atiku’s huge loss (and APC’s net/net gain). If Atiku doesn’t win the election, it would be largely due to the loss of the block vote PDP traditionally harvested in this zone.
- It’s both enigmatic and troubling that not a single sitting governor in the zone has endorsed Obi. As a matter of fact, one of them recently took him to the cleaners in a public spat.
- Besides, Gov. Dave Umahi and Gov. Hope Uzodinma are proving that they are not political Lilliputians amidst Babellian mobs. I consequently believe that APC could pull stunning surprises in Ebonyi and Imo – as could PDP in all five states in the 2023 Presidency.
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South-South
- The only certainties in this zone are that PDP will carry Akwa Ibom and that whichever party Gov. Nyesom Wike finally chooses to support is most likely to carry Rivers. Ongoing exchanges of rancorous criticisms between Atiku’s team and the Wike-led ‘Integrity group’ of five governors of Rivers, Oyo, Enugu, Abia and Benue apart, PDP remains most likely to carry the day for reasons that would be subsequently explained.
- LP’s Obi has been working very hard to reach some form of working accord with the G5 that would involve vote-splitting i.e. the governors would direct their supporters to vote for him in the presidential election, while LP candidates in all down-ballot contests would step down for PDP candidates. If you can espy the joker in the pack of cards Obi has kept up his sleeves you’d understand that it’s actually a masterstroke. Albeit, I hardly think voting-splitting can work in Nigeria given the high illiteracy level and considering how INEC has designed ballot papers.
- Only those who still romanticize social media as against investing big-time in strategic planning on the ground could’ve missed the game-changing impact of Tinubu’s landmark visit to Tom Polo’s Gbaramatu (western Ijaw) kingdom – where he collected a pricey traditional title to booth. Equally so is the strategic choice of the cultural melting-pot of Warri – as against Asaba – as venue of the formal launching of the APC Presidential campaign.
- Most pundits opine that with Delta State Gov. Ifeanyi Okowa on the ticket as running mate, PDP would suffer a massive loss of votes as he’s being cast as having betrayed his colleagues in the South by accepting Atiku’s patronising handout.
- My take is different. James Ibori, the undisputed godfather of Delta politics, has been a political soulmate of Atiku for ages. The power struggle is strictly between Ibori and Okowa, with Atiku’s chances in Delta potentially suffering collateral damage. Okowa flagrantly violated Law #1 of Robert Greene’s “48 Laws of Power,” by foolishly, if not fatally, outshining his erstwhile political benefactor/master at the Delta governorship primary where he made mincemeat of Ibori’s preference.
- There can be no gainsaying that Ibori is hell-bent on extracting his pound of flesh from Okowa, and, rather regrettably, making Delta a perfect place for APC to gain a ton of ground in the South-South.
- In conclusion, the 2023 Presidency will be a two-way horse race between APC and PDP in Delta, Edo, Bayelsa and Cross River.
South-West
- Tension has always been high between the Yoruba and Ndigbo during governorship elections in Lagos, with the latter predominantly voting for PDP candidates. Given the relatively high population of Ndigbo in Lagos, Obi would most likely procure the highest number of votes outside a South-East state in Lagos. Still, the grand commander of the Lagos turf – Tinubu – would easily carry the state.
- The resolution of the lingering rift between ex-Ogun State Gov. Ibikunle Amosun and Tinubu can only make APC victory sweeter in Ogun.
- I fully expect APC and PDP to be engaged in a bruising two-way battle, with the former more likely to carry Ekiti, Ondo, Lagos and Ogun, while PDP triumphs in Osun and Oyo (very much depending on whether Makinde’s G5 can amicably resolve the issue of Ayu’s resignation with Atiku in a timely manner).
- The series on 2023 Presidency begins to wind down next week with the searchlight being directly focused on the winning chances of each of the three presumptive frontrunners. It’s a must-read!