No matter whatever Atiku’s traducers and critics might say, the well-organised massive PDP campaign rally in Uyo, must’ve greatly pleased him and his campaign staffers. Host Gov. Emmanuel Udom, who also doubles as the chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, must be highly commended for organising a highly successful campaign launch amidst the strong centrifugal headwinds currently billowing the party.
By Tiko Okoye
PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar got his campaign officially underway in Uyo, capital of Akwa Ibom State, last Monday, October 11, 2022. He thus entered the 2023 election campaign history book as the first to do so. It remains to be seen whether by being the first to leap out of the starting blocks, the politically-wizened Waziri Adamawa would equally be the first to cross the finishing line come February 2023. Perhaps, if the election was to be conducted within the next 30 days, there can be hardly any argument that Atiku would’ve been in pole position to cart home the highly coveted prize.
Such an outcome would tally with the trite saying that the early bird usually catches the worm. But the race is a marathon, not a sprint. Yes, some might contend that the main election is just four ‘short’ months away, in which case it should be more appropriately contextualized as a sprint. But, although British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is said to have famously coined the phrase, “A week is a long time in politics,” it has been generally accepted in recent times that “a day (no longer seven days) is a lifetime (or an eternity) in politics”!
The foregoing only goes to underscore the heightened uncertainty and unpredictability of political outcomes for a number of reasons, including eleventh-hour unpleasant surprises, abrupt changes in the political dynamics and/or implementing a wrong strategy, among others. Hence an adage in my part of Nigeria posits that it isn’t always the first man that runs to report a case at a police station that automatically emerges the winner at the conclusion of the adjudication process.
Be that as it may, there are several reasons why Atiku must be highly commended for boldly sprinting into the ring to sound the bell for the commencement of the round-by-round political slugfest. Previous to the official campaign launch in Uyo, it seemed as if a novel campaign phenomenon had held the political terrain in a vice-like grip: a political campaign by proxy that came in various guises – million-man marches, solidarity rallies, solidarity walks, etc.
So, when supporters of Candidate A bragged about registering a two-million man march for their candidate, supporters of Candidate B will counter with a five-million-man march, while supporters of Candidate C would subsequently crow about their ten-million-man march! Manifestos became irrelevant as was an appraisal of each candidate’s ability and capacity to handle the plethora of daunting challenges plaguing the nation. It soon reached a crescendo when the slogan “Our rally for our candidate is bigger than yours!” became the yardstick for measuring competence and winning odds.
Without prejudice, it would seem that the ones with a predisposition to being on the hustings with such proxy campaign spectacles are supporters of the Labour Party presidential candidate aka OBIdients. My immediate conclusions were two-fold. First, that Obi’s campaign strategists had opted for this course of action because, given that time wasn’t on their side, metaphorically working from the answer to the question represented a most cost-effective and efficient way to rapidly gain momentum and positive national name recognition with each passing day, relative to the storied political pedigrees of Atiku (PDP) and Tinubu (APC).
The second reason has to do with No.37 of Robert Greene’s “48 Laws of Power.” Law 37 states that “Striking imagery and grand symbolic gestures create the aura of power (and)…dazzled by compelling appearances, no one will notice what you’re really doing (and not doing).”
At first, the Atiku and Tinubu camps dismissed Obi’s candidature as mere wishful thinking. But they, especially the Tinubu camp, soon realised that words stir up arguments and divisions while by forging bonds that transcend social and ethnic differences to bring people together, images are the quintessential instruments of power. People do not always want words or rational explanations or ‘facts’ but what immediately appeal to their emotions and sentiments.
Fascist regimes are very adept at playing emotional/mind games. Hardly any wonder that Nazi Germany Third Reich Fuhrer Adolf Hitler swooned that “All propaganda has to be popular and has to adapt its spiritual level to the perception of the least intelligent of those towards whom it intends to direct itself.”
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It’s now easy to see why an Obi keeps churning out Chinese economics data or embarks on an eleventh-hour visit to Egypt to learn how that country generates its electricity and receives plaudits for his ‘economic sagacity’ whereas similar statements by an Atiku or Tinubu would have been greeted with scorn. When a hard-pressed people searching for heroes are in emotional harmony with a calm-looking damsel in a hostel occupied by prostitutes, they easily canonise her as a virgin, and no amount of alleged or real sexual escapades would make them change their minds!
It is incontrovertible fact that the visual is very important for marketing, branding and media purposes. Therefore, the grand objective of putting on compelling spectacles using stunning visuals and powerful symbols that connect with people emotionally was to awe and shock supporters of the opposing camps into psychologically accepting that the election was already won and lost.
In retrospect, I think I was right on both accounts. Why? Not to be outshone, supporters of Tinubu were suddenly jolted into hurriedly organising their own five-million-man march in Lagos to counter the one-million-man march OBIdients were claiming to have conducted to demonstrate the popularity of their candidate in the nation’s economic capital and most populous city.
No matter whatever Atiku’s traducers and critics might say, the well-organised massive PDP campaign rally in Uyo, must’ve greatly pleased him and his campaign staffers. Host Gov. Emmanuel Udom, who also doubles as the chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, must be highly commended for organising a highly successful campaign launch amidst the strong centrifugal headwinds currently billowing the party.
Flagging off the presidential campaign in the Christian-dominated, South-South state of Akwa Ibom, was a very high-risk gamble for Atiku and the PDP. It was like daring the lion in his backyard considering that Gov. Nyesom Wike was lurking only a short distance around the corner, and a poor turnout would’ve spelt doom for Atiku’s chances. It was also a direct jibe at APC’s same-faith presidential ticket and amounted to Atiku throwing down the gauntlet and daring the APC and Labour Party to “match me if you can!” It now remains to be seen whether Obi would respond by launching his campaign at Kano or Sokoto and whether Tinubu can do same in Jos or Jalingo.
But Atiku mustn’t get carried away by the apparent success of the Uyo launch. It’s early days yet and the siddon-look attitude of Wike and his four musketeers – Abia’s Okezie Ikpeazu, Enugu’s Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Oyo’s Seyi Makinde and, to a much lesser degree, Benue’s Samuel Ortom – can still hurt his chances of victory very badly in the February poll. Truth be said, why must the PDP allow affliction to strike a second time? Did the party aficionados learn nothing from the incidence of five of its governors forming the new-PDP in 2014, only to shortly defect to the opposition APC – a course that facilitated the defeat of its incumbent presidential candidate, Goodluck Jonathan, to Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 poll?
Millions of Nigerians, including this writer, can’t seem to comprehend why such a seemingly trivial, but ethically important, task of Iyorchia Ayu stepping down for a Southerner soon after Atiku became the presidential candidate has morphed into a very difficult and complex problem to resolve. Should, and can, the PDP, if it wins the 2023 election, still be trusted to seamlessly deliver equity and justice to all sections of the polity?
Much has been made in the media about some PDP members chanting pro-Obi song at Atiku’s campaign launch. I’ve a different take. This is setting a very dangerous precedent that must timeously be nipped in the bud because if left unchecked, there would be no stopping supporters of opposing candidates from playing the devil’s advocates or a spoiler role at each other’s campaign. There can be no predicting what this type of “trouble dey sleep iyanga go wake am” behaviour can snowball into. A stitch in time saves nine!
Although I’m not paid to give any advice to the three leading campaign organisations, let me just provide some tips. Sokoto State Gov. Aminu Tambuwal grossly erred when he volubly attacked the Muslim-Muslim APC ticket. That could create a backlash in his region. Henceforth, a Christian member of the campaign organisation should be assigned that responsibility. Festus Keyamo should desist from throwing ‘facts’ at audiences that are emotionally charged; rather APC should orchestrate compelling spectacles of their own. Labour Party should stop waxing lyrical about the insignificance of robust party structures and think up how to put its vast army of potential volunteers to better use.